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2026-02-20 16:12:17
[French Wheat Crop Ratings Plummet as Weather Risks Begin to Be Priced In] ⑴ The latest data from the French Ministry of Agriculture shows a significant decline in the condition of the country's soft wheat crop. As of February 16, the good-to-excellent rating was 88%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week's 91%, ending the previous steady upward trend. This change has triggered a reassessment of growing conditions in Europe's largest wheat producer. ⑵ The condition of the barley crop is similarly concerning. During the same period, the good-to-excellent rating for winter barley fell from 88% to 84%, and for durum wheat, it dropped from 87% to 83%, a more significant decline. This indicates that recent weather fluctuations may have had a general impact on French grains as a whole, rather than being an isolated case for a single variety. ⑶ It is worth noting that planting is still underway. The winter barley planting rate reached 98%, and durum wheat reached 95%, both higher than the previous week. This means that the planting foundation for this season is solid, and market focus is shifting from the initial planted area to the critical period of yield formation. ⑷ Although the current rating is still significantly higher than the 74% of the same period last year, the continuous downward trend has injected a weather premium into the market. Before the North American and Black Sea wheat-producing regions reach their critical growth stages, crop conditions in France, serving as a bellwether for EU production, will be a significant factor influencing international wheat prices. The market will continue to monitor climate patterns in the coming weeks and their implications for rating repair or further deterioration.
