Risk aversion intensifies, USD/JPY fluctuates and adjusts.
2026-02-23 14:32:48
During Monday's Asian trading session, USD/JPY continued its decline, hitting a low near the 154.00 level before rebounding slightly to around 154.35, but still down more than 0.45% on the day.
Risk sentiment has cooled significantly. Previously, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to limit the president's tariff powers, President Trump announced he would pursue other legal avenues to implement new 15% global tariffs.
Market concerns about escalating trade frictions and supply chain disruptions led to a shift of funds towards traditional safe-haven assets, providing support for the yen. The dollar also lacked momentum.
Latest data shows that the annualized GDP growth rate in the United States slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating a significant weakening of economic momentum.
Despite core PCE inflation being slightly higher than expected, leading the market to believe that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, traders are still betting on two possible 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.
Expectations of slower growth caused the dollar to retreat from its near one-month high. In Japan, weak fourth-quarter GDP figures, coupled with inflation indicators slowing to a two-year low, cooled market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
This limited the yen's potential for appreciation to some extent. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan holiday resulted in thin trading, further weakening the continuation of the trend.
From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY previously encountered resistance above 156.00 and subsequently corrected, now breaking below the 155.00 level, indicating a clear weakening in the short-term trend. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have begun to turn downwards, exerting downward pressure on the price.
If prices continue to trade below short-term moving averages, it indicates that bearish momentum is in control. A MACD death cross at a high level, with the red bars shortening and turning green, suggests weakening bullish momentum.
The RSI has fallen from above 60 to around 50. A break below the midline would strengthen the downside signal. Key support lies at the psychological level of 154.00. A decisive break below this level at the daily close could lead to further declines towards the 153.20 and 152.50 areas.
The resistance levels are located in the 155.20 and 156.00 area. Only by regaining a foothold above 155.20 can the short-term structure be repaired.
Editor's Note:
The current decline in USD/JPY is driven more by risk sentiment than solely by interest rate factors. Escalating tariffs have rapidly shifted market sentiment towards caution, reinforcing the safe-haven appeal of the yen.
However, it should be noted that Japan's fundamentals have not improved significantly, and if global risk sentiment stabilizes, the yen's appreciation may be difficult to sustain.
Until the daily chart shows a bottoming pattern, the exchange rate is still biased towards a downward trend. However, if the support at 154.00 holds and the dollar rebounds, it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Pay attention to changes in risk sentiment and further guidance from US economic data.
Risk sentiment has cooled significantly. Previously, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to limit the president's tariff powers, President Trump announced he would pursue other legal avenues to implement new 15% global tariffs.
Market concerns about escalating trade frictions and supply chain disruptions led to a shift of funds towards traditional safe-haven assets, providing support for the yen. The dollar also lacked momentum.
Latest data shows that the annualized GDP growth rate in the United States slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating a significant weakening of economic momentum.
Despite core PCE inflation being slightly higher than expected, leading the market to believe that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, traders are still betting on two possible 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.
Expectations of slower growth caused the dollar to retreat from its near one-month high. In Japan, weak fourth-quarter GDP figures, coupled with inflation indicators slowing to a two-year low, cooled market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
This limited the yen's potential for appreciation to some extent. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan holiday resulted in thin trading, further weakening the continuation of the trend.
From a daily chart perspective, USD/JPY previously encountered resistance above 156.00 and subsequently corrected, now breaking below the 155.00 level, indicating a clear weakening in the short-term trend. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have begun to turn downwards, exerting downward pressure on the price.
If prices continue to trade below short-term moving averages, it indicates that bearish momentum is in control. A MACD death cross at a high level, with the red bars shortening and turning green, suggests weakening bullish momentum.
The RSI has fallen from above 60 to around 50. A break below the midline would strengthen the downside signal. Key support lies at the psychological level of 154.00. A decisive break below this level at the daily close could lead to further declines towards the 153.20 and 152.50 areas.
The resistance levels are located in the 155.20 and 156.00 area. Only by regaining a foothold above 155.20 can the short-term structure be repaired.
Editor's Note:
The current decline in USD/JPY is driven more by risk sentiment than solely by interest rate factors. Escalating tariffs have rapidly shifted market sentiment towards caution, reinforcing the safe-haven appeal of the yen.
However, it should be noted that Japan's fundamentals have not improved significantly, and if global risk sentiment stabilizes, the yen's appreciation may be difficult to sustain.
Until the daily chart shows a bottoming pattern, the exchange rate is still biased towards a downward trend. However, if the support at 154.00 holds and the dollar rebounds, it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Pay attention to changes in risk sentiment and further guidance from US economic data.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
