Geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties have driven gold prices higher, nearing the $5,200 mark.
2026-02-26 13:51:32
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its rebound during Thursday's Asian session, once again approaching the $5,200 mark. Continued inflows of safe-haven funds were the main driver of the price increase, while the market remained highly vigilant regarding uncertainties in US trade policy and risks in the Middle East.
At the policy level, even after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to restrict some import tariffs, the Trump administration still imposed an additional 10% tariff through Section 122 of the Tariff Act of 1974, and indicated that it might be raised to 15% in the future.
Repeated policy changes have increased global supply chain risks, weakened the appetite for risky assets, and conversely strengthened the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitically, the US and Iran will hold their third round of nuclear talks. The large-scale deployment of US military forces in the Middle East has raised market concerns about potential US military action against Iran.
Trump's State of the Union address, in which he stated he would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, kept geopolitical tensions high, providing continued risk premium support for gold. Furthermore, a slight weakening of the US dollar also created an external environment conducive to gold's rise. Although the Federal Reserve's overall stance remains hawkish, the market is still pricing in a possible future interest rate cut path.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement three 25-basis-point rate cuts, which would weaken the attractiveness of dollar assets and thus drive funds into the gold market.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold maintains an overall bullish trend. The upward trend was strengthened after the price successfully broke through the $5100 level. Gold is currently trading above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which is located around $4948, forming a medium- to long-term trend support level, indicating that the overall upward structure remains intact.
The RSI indicator remains around 59, within the bullish advantage zone but not yet in overbought territory, indicating that buying power still exists, but upward momentum has not been fully released. The MACD indicator has weakened slightly, with the fast line crossing below the signal line and entering negative territory, suggesting that short-term upward momentum has waned and the market needs technical consolidation at high levels.
Initial support is around $5150, which coincides with the recent short-term consolidation low; if the pullback continues, $5100 will become a key defense level. A break below $5100 could lead to a further test of the $5050 area, but the 200-period SMA is below $4950, which will maintain the bullish structure in the medium term.
The first resistance level to watch is the $5,220 area. If it breaks through effectively, it could test $5,260 or even higher.
Editor's Note:
Gold is currently driven by both trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, maintaining an overall medium-term bullish trend. A weaker dollar and market bets on future easing policies are providing continued support for gold prices, but the MACD momentum has declined, indicating a slowdown in the short-term upward pace.
In the short term, the key focus should be on whether gold prices can break out of the $5200-$5260 range. If gold prices fail to hold above $5220, they may enter a period of high-level consolidation; however, a breakout with significant volume could open up new upside potential.
At the policy level, even after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to restrict some import tariffs, the Trump administration still imposed an additional 10% tariff through Section 122 of the Tariff Act of 1974, and indicated that it might be raised to 15% in the future.
Repeated policy changes have increased global supply chain risks, weakened the appetite for risky assets, and conversely strengthened the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitically, the US and Iran will hold their third round of nuclear talks. The large-scale deployment of US military forces in the Middle East has raised market concerns about potential US military action against Iran.
Trump's State of the Union address, in which he stated he would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, kept geopolitical tensions high, providing continued risk premium support for gold. Furthermore, a slight weakening of the US dollar also created an external environment conducive to gold's rise. Although the Federal Reserve's overall stance remains hawkish, the market is still pricing in a possible future interest rate cut path.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement three 25-basis-point rate cuts, which would weaken the attractiveness of dollar assets and thus drive funds into the gold market.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold maintains an overall bullish trend. The upward trend was strengthened after the price successfully broke through the $5100 level. Gold is currently trading above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which is located around $4948, forming a medium- to long-term trend support level, indicating that the overall upward structure remains intact.
The RSI indicator remains around 59, within the bullish advantage zone but not yet in overbought territory, indicating that buying power still exists, but upward momentum has not been fully released. The MACD indicator has weakened slightly, with the fast line crossing below the signal line and entering negative territory, suggesting that short-term upward momentum has waned and the market needs technical consolidation at high levels.
Initial support is around $5150, which coincides with the recent short-term consolidation low; if the pullback continues, $5100 will become a key defense level. A break below $5100 could lead to a further test of the $5050 area, but the 200-period SMA is below $4950, which will maintain the bullish structure in the medium term.
The first resistance level to watch is the $5,220 area. If it breaks through effectively, it could test $5,260 or even higher.
Editor's Note:
Gold is currently driven by both trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks, maintaining an overall medium-term bullish trend. A weaker dollar and market bets on future easing policies are providing continued support for gold prices, but the MACD momentum has declined, indicating a slowdown in the short-term upward pace.
In the short term, the key focus should be on whether gold prices can break out of the $5200-$5260 range. If gold prices fail to hold above $5220, they may enter a period of high-level consolidation; however, a breakout with significant volume could open up new upside potential.
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