At 10 p.m. Beijing time on March 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) officially released the February 2026 non-farm payrolls report and supplemented the January retail sales data that was delayed due to the government shutdown. The data showed a comprehensive deterioration, with seemingly no good news at all.

The actual number of new non-farm jobs was -92,000, significantly lower than the market's median expectation of 59,000, and a precipitous drop from the revised figure of 118,000 in January (initial value of 130,000).

The unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, ending the previous period of stabilization;

The market's most closely watched wage growth rate exceeded expectations, rising to 3.8% (expected 3.7%), the same as the January growth rate, becoming the core signal of rising inflationary pressures;

The retail sales data, dubbed "terrifying data," was already priced in by the market as it was a supplementary January report, and its actual impact was limited.

It is worth noting that against the backdrop of rising oil prices driving up global inflation, wage growth has replaced traditional focus as the core indicator in this non-farm payroll report, second only to the unemployment rate.

Combined with the CPI and PCE indices to be released next week, this data will resonate with inflation data, jointly determining the central level of market interest rates and the subsequent trend of various asset prices.

Market competition intensifies: Policy paths and trading opportunities following expectation gaps

The non-farm payroll data, which fell short of expectations across the board (both new jobs and the unemployment rate failed to meet targets), coupled with higher-than-expected wage growth, did not bridge the market's divide. Instead, the downward revision of the January data (from 130,000 to 118,000) exacerbated the debate, exhibiting three main characteristics:

Pricing Divergence Regarding the “Fragility and Resilience” of the Labor Market

Although February's job growth was negative, the market generally interpreted it as "short-term fluctuation rather than a trend recession."

Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase quickly released research reports, emphasizing that "companies have not started a large-scale wave of layoffs, the number of initial jobless claims remains stable at around 210,000, and the economy has not yet fallen into the risk of a hard landing." This neutral to cautious interpretation led to a "volatile repricing" characteristic in major asset classes, without any one-sided market trend.

Marginal adjustment in Fed policy expectations: the probability of a rate cut has further declined.

The unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level of 4.4%, without touching the 4.5% hard landing warning line. Coupled with inflation concerns brought about by wage growth of 3.8%, this directly strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would "pause interest rate cuts".

Data from the interest rate futures market shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March has dropped from 42% before the data was released to 28%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in June has fallen from 78% to 61%. The repricing of the policy path has become the core driver of the short-term market.

Immediate warning of historical revision risks: The reliability of the initial values is questionable.

Over the past 60 months, the market has overestimated the probability of non-farm payroll growth by 53%, and the initial figures have been revised downward in 9 out of the past 12 months. The downward revision of 12,000 in January further reminds investors that the initial figure of -92,000 for February may be subject to further revisions. The current "overall underperformance" may include short-term statistical fluctuations, and investors should be wary of "data traps" in the trading arena.

Summary: The "triangular game" of negative growth, stable unemployment, and high inflation strengthens the logic of asset linkage.

February's non-farm payroll data was finalized at -92,000 new jobs, a 4.4% unemployment rate, and a 3.8% wage growth rate, marking the US labor market entering a fragile balance of "low hiring, low layoffs, and high costs." The impact on various assets needs to be assessed in conjunction with the geopolitical conflict context.

Key pressure points: Inflation stickiness and policy constraints

Cost data reflects that companies' willingness to expand is almost exhausted, while the better-than-expected wage growth of 3.8% further strengthens the expectation of sticky inflation.

With rising oil prices and wages driving growth, and employment falling far short of expectations, the Federal Reserve's policy direction has become extremely difficult to choose, and the economy's sensitivity to policy stimulus has increased significantly.

Core trading logic: Focus on the resonance between inflation data and geopolitical risks.

From a trading perspective, this non-farm payroll data further reinforces the impact of war on inflation and the suppression of the economy by interest rates.

Wage growth, as a core leading indicator of inflation, is linked to the CPI and PCE indices to be released next week and will become a key variable in determining the central level of interest rates and asset prices.

Under the combination of "negative growth + high inflation", asset price volatility will continue to increase. It is necessary to pay close attention to the linkage effect between crude oil, gold and the US dollar, as well as the repricing of earnings growth in the equity market. For specific linkages, please refer to my other related articles.