According to an APP report, a recent analysis by ANZ Bank's research team indicates that oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in the short term, primarily reflecting the combined impact of war premiums and supply disruptions. While oil prices may see a slight correction in the coming quarters if the conflict ends in March, ANZ believes prices will not easily return to the low range of $60 to $70 per barrel. Production disruptions have fundamentally altered the supply and demand balance in the oil market this year, and ANZ predicts that oil prices will average above $90 per barrel by 2026.

This assessment aligns closely with current market realities. Latest data shows that Brent crude oil prices have climbed to around $103 per barrel, a significant premium over pre-conflict levels, fully reflecting the immediate transmission effect of the war premium. ANZ Bank, in mid-March, raised its Q1 2026 Brent crude oil forecast from $90 to $100 per barrel, accurately capturing the structurally tight balance resulting from supply disruptions.

The core of the geopolitical premium lies in the market's pricing of future uncertainty. Even if the conflict eases in the short term, the restoration of transportation through key channels such as the Strait of Hormuz will still take time, and coupled with infrastructure damage in several oil-producing countries, it will be difficult to completely eliminate the supply gap in the short term. This "premium" is not a temporary sentiment, but a rational expectation of a long-term production recovery cycle. ANZ Bank emphasizes that production disruptions have led to a fundamental shift in the global oil market's supply and demand balance—previously reliant on export flows from specific regions has been disrupted, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources and further driving up logistics and procurement costs.

If the conflict ends as scheduled in March, oil prices may gradually decline in the following quarters, but ANZ Bank clearly points out that they will not return to the "comfortable range" of $60-70. The reasons are as follows: First, the production capacity losses caused by the disruption are partially permanent and will require months or even longer to recover; second, although global demand fluctuates seasonally, growth in emerging markets and inventory replenishment demand still provide strong support; and third, organizations such as OPEC+ may maintain price stability and avoid excessive market imbalance by extending production cuts.
To visually compare oil price paths under different scenarios, the following table presents ANZ Bank's core views:

The impact of this high oil price pattern on the global economy is also noteworthy. High oil prices will be transmitted to the cost side of transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures. While benefiting the fiscal revenue of oil-producing countries, it places an additional burden on net importing countries. ANZ Bank's forecast reminds market participants that the current situation is not a simple cyclical fluctuation, but a new normal under structural transformation.
Editor's Summary : Latest market developments indicate that despite significant short-term volatility, ANZ's outlook for oil prices above $90 per barrel in 2026 highlights the long-term tightness in the supply-demand balance. Geopolitical premiums and supply disruptions have jointly solidified the price floor, and investors should pay close attention to developments in geopolitical situations and the pace of alternative energy transition.