According to APP reports, TACO trading remains effective in the short term, but it is facing a severe test from the Iranian conflict, shifting from a "tried and true" market consensus to a "conditionally dependent" high-risk strategy. Latest data shows that Nasdaq futures continued their decline, falling approximately 0.6%, and S&P 500 futures fell approximately 0.55%. Overall, US stocks have retreated nearly 7-9% from recent highs, approaching a technical correction range. This trend directly reflects geopolitical premiums and risk aversion.

The core logic of the TACO trade lies in investors buying risk assets on dips during panic sell-offs triggered by Trump's aggressive policies, betting that he will quickly soften his stance due to stock market pressure or political costs, thus triggering a rebound. This strategy was repeatedly validated in the 2025 tariff crisis, but the "irreversible damage" caused by the Iran conflict—infrastructure destruction, delays in the restoration of navigation in key straits, and the hardline stances of both sides—significantly weakened the "retreat" effect. Despite Trump's recent announcement of a five-day delay in military strikes against Iranian energy facilities and his statement that "dialogue with Iran has been constructive," oil prices remain high, and the war premium has not completely subsided.

The TACO trading strategy remains effective in the short term (with a probability of about 60%), and the market is highly sensitive to any signs of a "Trump softening." However, if the conflict drags into April, structural supply losses will dominate, and the TACO logic may face the risk of becoming invalid. Investors should be wary: this is different from a tariff issue; it is a "real war" scenario, and even if Trump intends to resolve the situation, he will face numerous constraints.

The latest oil price developments further confirm this assessment. Brent crude oil plunged as much as 11% after news of Trump's postponement of the strikes, but overall it remained at a high level due to supply disruptions, highlighting the persistence of the war premium.
To visually illustrate the transaction paths under different scenarios, the following table compares the effectiveness of TACO transactions:

This framework aligns closely with the logic of some market participants: the geopolitical situation is currently in the tail risk phase and has not yet been fully cleared, but market sensitivity has gradually decreased through multiple rounds of fluctuations. After the emotional turmoil, various assets are waiting to desensitize and return to the fundamental narrative—including core drivers such as the Federal Reserve's policy path, corporate profit growth, and AI capital expenditure.
Editor's Summary : Recent futures market trends and Trump's statements suggest that TACO trading may still provide a short-term catalyst for a rebound, but the structural impact of the Iranian conflict has significantly increased medium-term uncertainty. Investors should operate with light positions and strict stop-loss orders, focusing on the progress of peace negotiations. Once sentiment subsides, fundamentals will take over as the market's direction.