According to APP, Macquarie Bank global strategists Thierry Wiesmann and Gareth Berry stated in a report that it is premature to have high expectations for a Middle East peace agreement to be reached in the next few days, as the demands of both sides still seem difficult to reconcile. The idea that the US would abandon its demands regarding Iran's nuclear assets, or that the US would simply withdraw its bases in the Gulf region, is too unrealistic. It is also unlikely at this stage that Iran would relinquish its support for its proxy forces. However, this conflict is unlikely to last beyond mid-April, as the Iranian threat is likely to be eliminated by then. Once the threat is eliminated, the US will have the upper hand in any subsequent negotiations.

This assessment aligns closely with the current geopolitical situation. The conflict with Iran has entered its third week, with Brent crude oil prices recently quoted at $103.42 per barrel, a significant increase from pre-conflict levels, fully reflecting the continued impact of supply disruptions and the war premium. Despite the existence of backdoor contact between the US and Iran, Thierry Wiesmann and Gareth Berry emphasize that the core differences have not narrowed: the US insists on the permanent decommissioning of Iran's nuclear facilities, while Iran is unwilling to relinquish its support for regional proxy forces, and the withdrawal of US troops from Gulf bases is even less likely. This structural asymmetry dims the prospects for a short-term peace agreement .

The report further points out that the war is unlikely to drag on past mid-April. If the Iranian military threat is substantially weakened by then, the United States will dominate subsequent negotiations with its overwhelming advantage. This prediction is based on the recent deployment of amphibious troops to the Gulf by the US military, aimed at controlling key Iranian oil export terminals. Strategists believe that while this move may prolong the war by 1-2 weeks, it will ultimately accelerate the elimination of the threat, creating favorable conditions for negotiations.

Current market expectations for a rapid ceasefire have been disproven by multiple rounds of real-world data. While oil prices experienced a brief pullback following some signs of easing tensions, they have generally remained high, reflecting investors' rational pricing of the supply recovery cycle. Even if the conflict ends by mid-April, the energy base effect and logistical reconstruction will continue to support oil prices above $90.

To visually compare market paths under different negotiation scenarios, the following table presents Macquarie's core viewpoints:

Thierry Wiesmann and Gareth Berry have repeatedly cautioned in recent client reports that the "tail effect" of geopolitical risks has not yet been fully priced in. The continued existence of Iranian proxy forces and the nuclear impasse will continue to put pressure on global supply chains and energy security. Investors should be wary: while any signs of peace in the short term may trigger a rebound in oil prices and risk assets, structural divergences determine that the sustainability of such a rebound is limited.
Editor's Summary : Latest reports and oil price trends indicate that although the Iranian conflict is likely to end by mid-April, the threshold for a rapid and comprehensive peace agreement remains high. With the US securing a negotiating advantage, the Middle East situation may enter a new equilibrium phase, and global markets need to prepare for structural adjustments.