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2026-04-05 08:30:32
[Easing of Strait Traffic, Oil Price Impact on Consumers: The Critical Point of Market Debate Between "Loosening" and "Tightening"] ⑴ The fear of energy supply disruptions remains the main theme of current market trading, and physical shortages have begun to emerge. However, subtle changes are occurring in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ A passage mechanism led by Iran is gradually taking shape. Ships from France, Japan, Turkey, and other countries have been allowed to pass through the strait, indicating that the blockade is not monolithic and local easing is underway. ⑶ However, supply-side pressure continues to accumulate. Data shows that approximately 108 oil tankers have left the strait since March 1st. JPMorgan Chase estimates a daily effective supply loss of approximately 14 million barrels globally, and OECD inventories are expected to reach their lowest operating levels. ⑷ Rising oil prices have already been transmitted to the consumer side. The average price of gasoline in the United States has risen to $4.10 per gallon, an increase of 37% since the outbreak of the conflict, and inflationary pressures are manifesting at the real level. (5) Trading psychology is caught in a dilemma: on the one hand, the easing of restrictions has alleviated the most extreme expectations of supply disruptions; on the other hand, the continuously decreasing number of tankers and the near-low inventory levels mean that the market is not far from a real supply crisis.
