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[US Mortgage Rates Fall Slightly to 6.51%, First Decline Since Iran War, But Home Purchase Applications Still 7% Lower Year-over-Year] ⑴ The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that the most popular US home loan rates fell slightly last week for the first time since the start of the Iran war. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contract rate fell 6 basis points to 6.51%, down from a seven-month high the previous week. ⑵ Despite this, refinancing applications fell 2.8%, and home purchase applications, while rising about 1% from the previous week, were 7% lower than the same period last year. ⑶ Since the start of the US-Israel war on February 28, mortgage rates have climbed a cumulative 42 basis points as the war pushed up yields on Treasury bonds used to set mortgage rates, while soaring fuel prices also impacted consumers' daily budgets. ⑷ Housing affordability has been a key political issue for the Trump administration. Earlier this year, Trump proposed banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes and requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower borrowing rates. (5) From a psychological perspective, the slight decline in mortgage rates has not yet translated into an effective recovery in demand. Home buying activity remains significantly weaker than the same period last year, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude among potential homebuyers under the dual pressure of borrowing costs and housing prices. Even if there are signs of a ceasefire in the Middle East, the recovery in the real estate market may lag behind the financial markets. (6) Future focus will be on the specific details of the housing policy to be announced by the Trump administration on Wednesday, and the further trend of mortgage rates after the ceasefire announcement. These two factors will determine the pace of recovery in the spring homebuying season.