Download App

[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Weakly Fluctuate, Raw Materials Diverge] ⑴ Steel: Weakly fluctuating. Steel supply growth is outpacing demand, with supply pressure emerging (this week's data may be affected by the Qingming Festival holiday, potentially impacting construction material demand). In terms of funding, the main rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts are still in the rollover phase, with the top 20 long positions in the October contract showing a larger increase, indicating a bullish shift in open interest. Technically, the October rebar contract is suppressed by the 40-day moving average, with resistance at 3140 and support at 3080-3100. Overall, demand growth is narrowing, and inventory pressure remains. Short-term price fluctuations may be driven by costs, but the peak demand season has not yet materialized, valuations are neutral to low, and downside potential is limited. ⑵ Iron Ore: Medium-term short position, shorting opportunities available. Production at some coal mines is limited due to accidents or relocation of working faces, while Mongolian coal clearance remains high. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, while intermediaries are actively shipping, resulting in mixed price movements. In terms of funding, the main coking coal contract is in the rollover phase, with both long and short positions decreasing among the top 20 holders of the 05 contract, and the reduction in long positions being more significant. Technically, the 05 contract has formed a V-shaped pattern, with the 1143 level as the resistance to watch. Overall, weakening demand and potential delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract, but power plants may start restocking around the middle of the month, coupled with a slight correction in the basis, the market may turn to a sideways trend in the short term. In terms of operation, the strategy remains to sell the near-month 05 contract on rebounds to the resistance level. (3) Coking Coal: Sideways. Production is limited in some coal mines due to accidents or relocation of working faces, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, with market sentiment continuing to cool down. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, and intermediaries are actively shipping, resulting in stable to slightly lower prices. In terms of funding, the rollover of the main coking coal contract is slow, and the top 20 holders of the 05 contract have not changed much in terms of long and short positions. Technically, the 05 contract is suppressed by the moving average, and the short-term resistance level has shifted down to the 1125-1140 level. In summary, weakening demand and potential delivery pressures are suppressing near-month contracts, but power plants may begin restocking around mid-month, potentially limiting the downside for coal prices. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, avoiding chasing short positions, and being wary of volatility risks from the US-Iran conflict. (4) Coking Coal: High-level fluctuations. Lower coal costs have led to improved profits for coking plants, resulting in relatively stable production; pig iron production continues to increase, and steel mills are mostly maintaining just-in-time purchasing, resulting in a stable supply-demand structure. Valuation-wise, the 05 contract is trading at a discount, and there are still expectations for a second round of price increases for coking coal, providing valuation support for near-month prices. Overall, valuation limits downside potential, and short-term price movements will mainly follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Slightly weak fluctuations. A temporary ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran has eased tensions in the Middle East, and crude oil prices have plummeted, weakening expectations of cost support and leading to a valuation reshaping. From a fundamental perspective, ferrosilicon manufacturers are reducing production, and downstream purchases are maintaining just-in-time restocking, resulting in a relatively healthy supply-demand balance. Technically, the manganese silicon 05 contract has fallen with reduced open interest, and may test the 40-day moving average support in the short term. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the May contract decreased, with short positions seeing a larger reduction.