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[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil - Wait and See, Soybean Meal & Hogs - Bearish on Rallies] ⑴ Palm Oil: Wait and See. The two-week ceasefire agreement reached between Iran, the US, and Israel led to a significant weakening of crude oil and US soybean oil. Palm oil, the most energy-sensitive oil in China, experienced the most significant downward fluctuations, with the P2605 futures contract breaking below the key support level of 9700 yuan, signaling the end of the recent rebound. From a fundamental perspective, the overall supply of edible oils is ample, lacking a clear upward driver. Malaysian palm oil production decreased and inventories were reduced in February, and this trend is expected to continue in March, but current inventory levels remain high. Domestic soybean oil inventories saw a slight decrease, but overall inventories remain high, with exports providing some support for inventory reduction. Rapeseed oil inventories are neutral to low, but Canadian rapeseed is arriving, which will ease supply later. Overall, domestic edible oil inventories are neutral to slightly high, with relatively ample supply. Spot market declines: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell by 450 yuan to 9500 yuan, soybean oil fell by 270 yuan to 8840 yuan, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil fell by 290 yuan to 9980 yuan. (2) Soybean meal: Shorting on rallies is the main strategy. The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, which in turn has increased the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, imported soybeans have gradually recovered since April. According to shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May may reach 11.5 million tons, and in June, 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (3) Corn: Wait and see. The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price, but the release of policy grain and wheat and rice has a certain inhibitory effect on the upward movement of corn prices. On the demand side, there is a divergence. Feed demand is weak due to the weakening prices of mainstream livestock products, and feed mills and farms are not very active in building up their inventories, resulting in weak feed demand. However, the strong demand for corn deep processing continues to be strong. It is expected that corn prices will remain high and volatile in the short term, but the increase may be limited. (4) Live Pigs: Shorting on rallies is recommended. Live pig spot prices continue to weaken, and are expected to continue declining tomorrow. The main reason is the continued release of short-term supply pressure. Previously accumulated large-weight pigs are gradually being released for slaughter, coupled with a high slaughter weight, resulting in ample market supply. Currently, terminal demand is insufficient, leading to low efficiency and a supply-demand imbalance. Looking ahead, although the theoretical number of live pigs slaughtered in April and May will slightly decrease month-on-month due to signs of second-generation hens entering the market after the Lunar New Year, the current slaughter weight is high, and coupled with the expectation of second-generation hens entering the market, the price trend in April and May is not optimistic. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (5) Eggs: Longing on dips is recommended. The egg market is currently in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, rising corn and soybean meal prices have directly pushed up the cost of raising laying hens, with the feed cost per kilogram of eggs reaching around 3.5 yuan/kilogram. On the other hand, although the current number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst may have passed.