According to APP, Daiwa Securities economist Kenji Yamamoto stated that despite the ceasefire reached between the US and Iran, the global economy may still face inflation concerns . The economist said, "The impact of the current ceasefire is clear. While the global economy has avoided a severe growth shock, energy-driven inflationary pressures remain unresolved." He anticipates that the practical outcome will be an "imperfect" agreement, where Iran makes some concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and greater influence in the management of the Strait of Hormuz . "This framework represents a state of order maintained through a fragile balance, even while avoiding full-blown confrontation."

Kenji Yamamoto 's assessment is based on the lingering tail risks in the current geopolitical and energy environment. While the ceasefire agreement has temporarily alleviated the most severe supply disruption expectations, energy prices have not quickly returned to low levels, and transportation costs and inventory management pressures remain, making it difficult for global inflation expectations to fall rapidly. In particular, as energy is a core input in the global industrial chain, its price fluctuations will be transmitted through multiple stages of production, logistics, and consumption, amplifying cost pressures on enterprises and eroding residents' real income.

A deeper analysis reveals that the core of the "imperfect" agreement lies in a trade-off: Iran conceded to its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, while simultaneously gaining greater influence in the Strait of Hormuz . While this arrangement avoided full-blown conflict, it could not completely eliminate the market's pricing premium for long-term uncertainty. The global economy has thus entered a state of "fragile equilibrium"—growth shocks have been avoided, but energy-driven inflationary pressures will continue to constrain monetary policy space, forcing central banks to find a more delicate balance between controlling inflation and stabilizing growth.

Comparison of Ceasefire Scenarios and Inflation Impact

This framework has a particularly profound impact on the global economy. High energy costs will directly increase production costs for manufacturing in major Asian countries, affecting export competitiveness and supply chain stability; meanwhile, the recovery of consumption in developed economies will face additional obstacles. Going forward, it is crucial to monitor the actual navigation efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz , OPEC+ supply strategies, and the interest rate paths of major central banks, as these variables will collectively determine the ultimate direction of inflationary pressures.

Editor's Summary : While the US-Iran ceasefire has injected some stability into the global economy, analysis by economists at Daiwa Securities indicates that energy-driven inflationary pressures have not been fundamentally resolved, and the fragile balance under the "imperfect" agreement framework will remain the norm in the short term. Market participants should continue to monitor energy price dynamics and geopolitical changes, and prepare for risk hedging in advance.