According to APP, Antje Praefcke , a foreign exchange analyst at Commerzbank, noted in a report that the dollar could weaken if Trump calls for interest rate cuts again. The oil price shock triggered by the Iran conflict should gradually ripple through to the price level. Even after the conflict ends, energy prices may not return to pre-conflict levels due to disruptions to trade routes and production facilities. However, Trump may again pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in order to boost his approval ratings before the midterm elections. If Trump refocuses his attention on this front and the conflict with the Fed reignites, the dollar could come under pressure accordingly.

Antje Praefcke 's analysis is based on the reality that the energy market remains volatile at high levels. As of April 9, 2026, the latest foreign exchange data shows the US dollar index hovering around 102.8, slightly stronger than at the beginning of the year, mainly due to inflation expectations supported by energy costs; the euro/dollar exchange rate is still hovering around 1.1660, indicating that the dollar remains resilient overall. However, the report argues that if Trump restarts the "interest rate cut war," coupled with the fact that energy prices cannot fully normalize in the long term, the dollar's upward momentum will be significantly weakened.

From a deeper perspective, the disruption to the energy supply chain caused by the Iran war is long-lasting: damaged trade routes and lengthy repair cycles for production facilities make it difficult for global crude oil logistics efficiency to recover quickly, keeping oil prices above pre-war levels for an extended period. This supply-side shock will gradually transmit to the PPI and CPI, creating mild but persistent cost-push inflation and limiting the Federal Reserve's policy maneuvering. If Trump publicly pressures the Fed again for midterm election political considerations, it will inevitably trigger a new round of policy uncertainty. The market will price in the risk of a challenge to the Fed's independence, thereby weakening the dollar's safe-haven appeal and putting pressure on its exchange rate.

Policy game and the US dollar scenario comparison

This assessment also highlights the strong correlation between global exchange rates and geopolitical energy. As major energy importers and manufacturing centers, large Asian countries will see their export competitiveness somewhat buffered by a weaker dollar. However, if energy costs remain high for an extended period, they will still face imported inflationary pressures. The future market focus will be on the frequency of Trump's actual statements, the midterm election timeline, and the responses from Federal Reserve officials; these variables will collectively determine the short-term fluctuation range of the dollar.
Editor's Summary : A report from Commerzbank analysts clearly outlines the dual pressures currently facing the US dollar: the energy shock left over from the Iran conflict is difficult to completely eliminate, while potential political interference from Trump could further amplify policy uncertainty. The dollar's trajectory will be highly dependent on the progress of geopolitical easing and the interplay of the Federal Reserve's independence; investors need to maintain a dynamic observation of the correlation between exchange rates and commodities.