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[The Fed Awaits Inflation Decision; Leading Indicators Show Fastest Rise Since 2008] ⑴ The minutes of the Fed's March meeting revealed that some policymakers are uneasy about rising inflation. Despite a gradual reduction in policy rates since 2024, inflation remains stubbornly above the target range, and the price transmission effects of the Middle East conflict have not yet fully manifested in hard data. ⑵ Market focus shifts to the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be released on Thursday. The market widely expects the CPI to rise 0.9% month-on-month, pushing the year-on-year increase to 3.3%, which, if realized, would be the largest annual increase since May 2024. ⑶ State Street Bank's PriceStats model, which monitors millions of online consumer prices using web scraping technology, shows that March monthly inflation jumped 1.5% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since the series began in July 2008. (4) PriceStats model simultaneously recorded an annualized inflation rate of 4.0% in March, returning to its highest level since January 2023. Michael Metcalf, head of macro strategy at State Street, warned that the inflation picture has undergone a substantial shift in just one month. (5) Metcalf pointed out that early component data showed that non-energy sectors such as entertainment, electronics, and clothing also saw above-average monthly increases. If the price increases are not solely due to oil and gas cost transmission, the Fed's anxiety will significantly intensify. (6) Despite leading inflation indicators flashing red, the interest rate futures market is currently only pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a rate cut before the end of the year, far from reflecting any tightening expectations, indicating that the market is still in a wait-and-see phase regarding the Fed's policy path. (7) The subsequent trend will largely depend on whether energy prices can fall as the ceasefire agreement stabilizes, and the rate of transmission of oil prices to daily consumer goods prices. If the March CPI data exceeds expectations across the board, the market's pricing of the Fed's interest rate trajectory for the year may face a sharp correction.