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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2026-04-09 21:47:24

[US Treasuries React Mildly to Data Frenzy, Awaiting CPI Decision and Weekend Negotiations] ⑴ Thursday's flurry of economic data had a limited impact on the US Treasury market. Hedge funds and commodity trading advisors had already sold off medium-term Treasuries before the Chicago Mercantile Exchange opened, but the selling pressure was absorbed, with yields across all maturities holding steady above key support levels. ⑵ The data generally painted a picture of slowing economic growth and shrinking disposable income. The labor market pattern of low hiring and low layoffs remains intact. Given that the data reflects the economic situation before the outbreak of the Iran war, market pricing was limited. ⑶ Traders' focus has shifted to Friday's release of the March Consumer Price Index, which will, for the first time, partially reflect the impact of the war on inflation. Meanwhile, the weekend's fragile-to-breakdown ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, coupled with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, further exacerbated market anxiety. (4) Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 rose to 219,000, higher than the expected 210,000 and the previous week's 203,000; continuing jobless claims fell to 1.794 million, lower than the expected 1.84 million. (5) The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was revised down to 0.5%, weaker than the expected 0.7%. Gross domestic income, released for the first time, recorded a significantly strong reading of 2.6%, while real final sales growth fell from 0.4% to 0.3%. (6) Personal income fell 0.1% month-on-month in February, far below the expected 0.3% growth; personal consumption expenditure rose 0.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while the year-on-year increase fell from 3.1% to 2.8%. (7) The yield curve steepened slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.781% and the 10-year yield at 4.295%. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields widened to 51.41 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields broadened to 111.20 basis points. (8) Analysts believe that before the release of the March CPI data and the clarification of the outcome of the weekend's Iran negotiations, the US Treasury market is likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern. If inflation figures exceed expectations and the Hormuz stalemate continues, a steepening yield curve could gain new catalysts.

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