The ongoing Middle East situation, coupled with rising US inflation, has kept gold prices fluctuating at high levels.
2026-04-13 09:23:25
On Monday during Asian trading hours, the international gold market showed a clear divergence. Despite escalating geopolitical risks, gold prices failed to continue the safe-haven rally, instead gapping down after the opening bell, indicating that the market's dominant logic has shifted from solely safe-haven demand to the repricing of inflation and interest rate expectations.
From a context perspective, the Middle East situation has once again become the focus of the market. Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated significantly due to the lack of progress in ongoing negotiations over the weekend. The US announced a blockade of key shipping lanes, triggering market concerns about energy supply disruptions. Against this backdrop, crude oil prices have surged, with WTI crude oil jumping approximately 8.5% at the start of the week and currently trading around $105 per barrel . This rapid rise in energy prices has directly reinforced market expectations of rising inflation in the future.
Meanwhile, further US macroeconomic data intensified market reassessment of interest rate policy. Data showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, higher than the previous 2.4% , and increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than previous levels; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. This data indicates that inflationary pressures remain resilient and has significantly cooled market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Against this backdrop, gold's appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset is suppressed. High interest rates mean a higher opportunity cost of holding gold, thus diminishing its value as an asset allocation. While geopolitical risks are generally favorable for gold, the current market is more focused on the impact of rising inflation on monetary policy, putting downward pressure on gold's short-term price movement.
From a market perspective, gold opened lower but rebounded, trading around $4710. In contrast, the US dollar index remained firm, supported by interest rate expectations, further limiting gold's upside potential. Furthermore, imported inflationary pressures from rising oil prices may prolong the tightening cycle of major central banks globally, thus continuing to suppress precious metals' performance.
From a global market perspective, the current situation exhibits a typical "energy-driven inflation" structure. Rising oil prices not only affect energy costs but also transmit to a wider range of commodity prices through transportation and production chains. This structural inflationary environment makes the market more inclined to allocate to income-generating assets rather than non-interest-bearing safe-haven assets.
In terms of market sentiment, investors are rebalancing risk and return. Previous one-sided bets on geopolitical risks are gradually shifting towards a comprehensive assessment of macroeconomic policy paths, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal in the short term. Investors are currently focusing on subsequent oil price movements, US policy signals, and whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at the $4750 and $4800 areas, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4520 . In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at a high level, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold's short-term trend shows a downward oscillation. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indicating that selling pressure remains. If the price breaks below the $4,600 support level, it may further test the $4,500 area; conversely, if it regains a foothold above $4,750 , it may recover its short-term decline and attempt to fill the gap. Overall, short-term price movements will continue to revolve around the interplay of interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, the gold market is currently at a critical juncture due to a confluence of factors. While geopolitical risks continue to provide some support, rising oil prices and stronger US inflation data have significantly increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, thus putting downward pressure on gold. Future trends depend on two core variables: first, whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further and trigger actual supply disruptions; and second, whether US inflation will remain high and delay the rate-cutting process. If inflation continues to rise, gold may continue to be under pressure; however, if risk events intensify, safe-haven demand may still drive a rebound in gold prices. Overall, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term, searching for a new direction amidst macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks.
From a context perspective, the Middle East situation has once again become the focus of the market. Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated significantly due to the lack of progress in ongoing negotiations over the weekend. The US announced a blockade of key shipping lanes, triggering market concerns about energy supply disruptions. Against this backdrop, crude oil prices have surged, with WTI crude oil jumping approximately 8.5% at the start of the week and currently trading around $105 per barrel . This rapid rise in energy prices has directly reinforced market expectations of rising inflation in the future.
Meanwhile, further US macroeconomic data intensified market reassessment of interest rate policy. Data showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, higher than the previous 2.4% , and increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than previous levels; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. This data indicates that inflationary pressures remain resilient and has significantly cooled market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Against this backdrop, gold's appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset is suppressed. High interest rates mean a higher opportunity cost of holding gold, thus diminishing its value as an asset allocation. While geopolitical risks are generally favorable for gold, the current market is more focused on the impact of rising inflation on monetary policy, putting downward pressure on gold's short-term price movement.
From a market perspective, gold opened lower but rebounded, trading around $4710. In contrast, the US dollar index remained firm, supported by interest rate expectations, further limiting gold's upside potential. Furthermore, imported inflationary pressures from rising oil prices may prolong the tightening cycle of major central banks globally, thus continuing to suppress precious metals' performance.
From a global market perspective, the current situation exhibits a typical "energy-driven inflation" structure. Rising oil prices not only affect energy costs but also transmit to a wider range of commodity prices through transportation and production chains. This structural inflationary environment makes the market more inclined to allocate to income-generating assets rather than non-interest-bearing safe-haven assets.
In terms of market sentiment, investors are rebalancing risk and return. Previous one-sided bets on geopolitical risks are gradually shifting towards a comprehensive assessment of macroeconomic policy paths, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal in the short term. Investors are currently focusing on subsequent oil price movements, US policy signals, and whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at the $4750 and $4800 areas, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4520 . In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at a high level, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold's short-term trend shows a downward oscillation. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indicating that selling pressure remains. If the price breaks below the $4,600 support level, it may further test the $4,500 area; conversely, if it regains a foothold above $4,750 , it may recover its short-term decline and attempt to fill the gap. Overall, short-term price movements will continue to revolve around the interplay of interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, the gold market is currently at a critical juncture due to a confluence of factors. While geopolitical risks continue to provide some support, rising oil prices and stronger US inflation data have significantly increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, thus putting downward pressure on gold. Future trends depend on two core variables: first, whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further and trigger actual supply disruptions; and second, whether US inflation will remain high and delay the rate-cutting process. If inflation continues to rise, gold may continue to be under pressure; however, if risk events intensify, safe-haven demand may still drive a rebound in gold prices. Overall, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term, searching for a new direction amidst macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks.
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