Middle Eastern oil production may need two years to recover
2026-04-17 19:40:48
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said that Middle Eastern oil-producing countries may need up to two years to restore their oil and gas production to pre-war levels due to ongoing damage to energy facilities and supply chain disruptions caused by regional conflicts.
“We estimate that it will take about two years for the Gulf region to return to pre-war production levels,” Birol said in an interview published Friday in the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. This prediction takes into account multiple variables, including the progress of infrastructure repair, the return of technical personnel, and international sanctions.
Birol points out that the timelines for production recovery will differ across countries. For example, compared to Saudi Arabia, which has a more robust oil industry base and whose damaged facilities are concentrated in peripheral production areas, Iraq will need more time to restore production to pre-war levels—several of the country's core oil fields were targeted in the conflict, and some key pipelines remain out of service.
In its monthly report released this week, the International Energy Agency estimated that global oil supply suffered a historic plunge in March due to attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and continued restrictions on tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz: average daily production plummeted from approximately 107.1 million barrels to 97 million barrels, a daily reduction of 10.1 million barrels, marking the largest supply disruption in the history of the global energy market.
Compared to February, daily production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its partners fell sharply by 9.4 million barrels in March; while daily production by non-OPEC+ countries decreased by 770,000 barrels—Qatar's production declined due to damage to its offshore drilling platform, a drop that offset the supply increase brought about by Brazil and the United States through shale oil production.
In an interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Birol emphasized that the market is currently underestimating the possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the essential passage for approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil, a continued blockade of the strait would directly cut off energy supplies from the Middle East to major Asian economies.
The International Energy Agency official stated that the last oil shipments transported through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict have now arrived at their destinations, easing global supply tensions to some extent. However, it is alarming that no new oil and gas shipments from the Middle East to Asian markets were loaded in March, and no new shipments are planned; this supply gap is now becoming increasingly apparent. "If the Strait of Hormuz fails to reopen, we must prepare for a significant rise in energy prices," Birol warned.
Birol also revealed that last month the International Energy Agency coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history, releasing a total of 400 million barrels of crude oil; if the situation in the region does not improve substantially in the coming weeks, the possibility of restarting the emergency reserve release cannot be ruled out.
“We have not yet made a final decision, but this option has undoubtedly been included in formal consideration,” Birol told Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
“We estimate that it will take about two years for the Gulf region to return to pre-war production levels,” Birol said in an interview published Friday in the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. This prediction takes into account multiple variables, including the progress of infrastructure repair, the return of technical personnel, and international sanctions.
Birol points out that the timelines for production recovery will differ across countries. For example, compared to Saudi Arabia, which has a more robust oil industry base and whose damaged facilities are concentrated in peripheral production areas, Iraq will need more time to restore production to pre-war levels—several of the country's core oil fields were targeted in the conflict, and some key pipelines remain out of service.
In its monthly report released this week, the International Energy Agency estimated that global oil supply suffered a historic plunge in March due to attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and continued restrictions on tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz: average daily production plummeted from approximately 107.1 million barrels to 97 million barrels, a daily reduction of 10.1 million barrels, marking the largest supply disruption in the history of the global energy market.
Compared to February, daily production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its partners fell sharply by 9.4 million barrels in March; while daily production by non-OPEC+ countries decreased by 770,000 barrels—Qatar's production declined due to damage to its offshore drilling platform, a drop that offset the supply increase brought about by Brazil and the United States through shale oil production.
In an interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Birol emphasized that the market is currently underestimating the possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the essential passage for approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil, a continued blockade of the strait would directly cut off energy supplies from the Middle East to major Asian economies.
The International Energy Agency official stated that the last oil shipments transported through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict have now arrived at their destinations, easing global supply tensions to some extent. However, it is alarming that no new oil and gas shipments from the Middle East to Asian markets were loaded in March, and no new shipments are planned; this supply gap is now becoming increasingly apparent. "If the Strait of Hormuz fails to reopen, we must prepare for a significant rise in energy prices," Birol warned.
Birol also revealed that last month the International Energy Agency coordinated the largest emergency oil reserve release in its history, releasing a total of 400 million barrels of crude oil; if the situation in the region does not improve substantially in the coming weeks, the possibility of restarting the emergency reserve release cannot be ruled out.
“We have not yet made a final decision, but this option has undoubtedly been included in formal consideration,” Birol told Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
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