Standard Chartered Bank: Gold prices will rise in the second half of 2026.
2026-04-20 23:46:49
International gold prices are currently finding support around $4,800 per ounce. Although the precious metal will face further downward pressure in the short term, one international bank still predicts that gold prices will rise in the second half of this year.
In his latest gold market report, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Commodities Research, Suki Cooper, stated that gold prices appear to be forming a temporary bottom support level; however, uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran and market concerns about inflation may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the coming months, and this pressure is unlikely to ease completely in the short term.
In its official forecast, Standard Chartered Bank expects the average gold price to be around $4,605 per ounce in the second quarter of this year, and to climb to $4,850 per ounce in the third quarter, showing a gradual upward trend.
Cooper further added that current gold price movements are primarily dependent on the temporary ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and the progress of peace negotiations. Although these negotiations are ongoing, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, further impacting the stability of global supply chains and indirectly affecting sentiment in the gold market.
"Given the fragility of the current ceasefire agreement and the market focus shifting to real yields, gold prices are not yet fully out of the woods, and liquidity demand may continue to exert further downward pressure on prices. However, the structural drivers supporting gold prices remain intact, and we expect gold prices to resume their upward trend in the coming months and retest historical highs," Cooper said in the report.
At the same time, Cooper also pointed out that inflation concerns are one of the important reasons for the recent underperformance of gold prices. She explained that the current correlation between gold prices and the five-year real yield is -24%, while before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, this correlation was 0%, and this significant change reflects the impact of market sentiment on gold prices.
“The market is currently in a dilemma, balancing inflationary risks with the pressure of negative output growth,” Cooper said. “Gold prices typically outperform during periods of unexpectedly high inflation and a recession in the U.S. economy. However, the current gold market is not focused on these potential risks, which means there may be further upside potential in the coming months. However, as gold prices gradually decouple from the synchronous movements of risk assets, policy responses from various countries will become a key influencing factor.”
Despite the many uncertainties in the short term, Cooper also mentioned that some positive signs have emerged in the gold market: the size of speculative positions has decreased, which has squeezed out the bubble in the market to some extent and made the gold price trend more stable.
She added that investor demand is also gradually improving, with preliminary data from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showing signs of renewed inflows, indicating that investor demand for gold is picking up.
“We still believe there is some pressure from loss-making positions in the market (estimated at around 53 tons), but there are signs that market liquidity demand may be stabilizing, which will provide some support for gold prices,” Cooper said.
In his latest gold market report, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Commodities Research, Suki Cooper, stated that gold prices appear to be forming a temporary bottom support level; however, uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran and market concerns about inflation may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the coming months, and this pressure is unlikely to ease completely in the short term.
In its official forecast, Standard Chartered Bank expects the average gold price to be around $4,605 per ounce in the second quarter of this year, and to climb to $4,850 per ounce in the third quarter, showing a gradual upward trend.
Cooper further added that current gold price movements are primarily dependent on the temporary ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and the progress of peace negotiations. Although these negotiations are ongoing, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, further impacting the stability of global supply chains and indirectly affecting sentiment in the gold market.
"Given the fragility of the current ceasefire agreement and the market focus shifting to real yields, gold prices are not yet fully out of the woods, and liquidity demand may continue to exert further downward pressure on prices. However, the structural drivers supporting gold prices remain intact, and we expect gold prices to resume their upward trend in the coming months and retest historical highs," Cooper said in the report.
At the same time, Cooper also pointed out that inflation concerns are one of the important reasons for the recent underperformance of gold prices. She explained that the current correlation between gold prices and the five-year real yield is -24%, while before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, this correlation was 0%, and this significant change reflects the impact of market sentiment on gold prices.
“The market is currently in a dilemma, balancing inflationary risks with the pressure of negative output growth,” Cooper said. “Gold prices typically outperform during periods of unexpectedly high inflation and a recession in the U.S. economy. However, the current gold market is not focused on these potential risks, which means there may be further upside potential in the coming months. However, as gold prices gradually decouple from the synchronous movements of risk assets, policy responses from various countries will become a key influencing factor.”
Despite the many uncertainties in the short term, Cooper also mentioned that some positive signs have emerged in the gold market: the size of speculative positions has decreased, which has squeezed out the bubble in the market to some extent and made the gold price trend more stable.
She added that investor demand is also gradually improving, with preliminary data from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showing signs of renewed inflows, indicating that investor demand for gold is picking up.
“We still believe there is some pressure from loss-making positions in the market (estimated at around 53 tons), but there are signs that market liquidity demand may be stabilizing, which will provide some support for gold prices,” Cooper said.
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