According to APP, some top market analysts say that oil prices have not fully reflected the impact of the largest supply disruption in history. Trafigura's chief economist , Saad Rahim, pointed out at a global commodities summit hosted by a prominent international financial media outlet that the conflict in Iran has so far resulted in a reduction of approximately 1 billion barrels of oil supply, and this figure could increase to 1.5 billion barrels if the conflict continues. Gunvor Group's head of analysis , Frederick Lacerre, further stated that if the war continues for another month, oil inventories will be depleted.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, Brent crude oil futures prices have fluctuated wildly. Prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel as peace talks seemed imminent, before retreating somewhat. On Tuesday, prices hovered around $95 a barrel, partly due to market expectations that the conflict would end soon. "The scale seems to be beyond the market's comprehension," said Saad Rahim . He also noted that even if a peace agreement is reached, it will take time for trade flows to return to normal, "so there is indeed a significant gap between the market's perception of the situation and the actual reality."

Latest data shows that Brent crude oil spot prices have fallen from their early April highs, but are still up about 40% from pre-conflict levels, and inventory levels have dropped to near a decade low. The International Energy Agency's monitoring shows that the global daily crude oil supply deficit exceeded 10 million barrels in March, a scale far exceeding any previous geopolitical event, highlighting the extreme nature of supply disruptions.

To provide a clear comparison of the scale of supply disruptions and price performance, the following table presents key data:

The table above clearly reflects the significant disconnect between the supply-demand gap and price pricing, with market optimism about short-term peace masking the difficulty of long-term recovery.

A deeper analysis reveals the uniqueness of this supply disruption in its scale and duration: shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, directly impacting 20% of global crude oil trade flows, and companies' inventory buffers are nearing their limits. If the conflict prolongs, the second wave of effects will be transmitted to downstream refined oil prices through logistics costs and refinery operating rates, thereby pushing up global inflationary pressures. Saad Rahim 's view emphasizes that current market pricing is primarily based on the assumption of a "rapid end," while actual trade recovery will require months to rebuild supply chains, leading to a persistent risk of undervaluation in oil prices.

Overall, oil price fluctuations are driven by a interplay between supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitical expectations. In the short term, peaceful signals may suppress prices, but if inventory data deteriorates further or negotiations stall, Brent crude could return to the triple-digit range. Investors should pay close attention to weekly inventory reports and geopolitical developments to proactively position themselves in energy-related assets.

Editor's Summary : Recent analyst statements and market data indicate that the supply disruptions caused by the Iranian conflict have exceeded mainstream market expectations. The 1 billion barrel shortfall is rapidly expanding to a potential 1.5 billion barrel level, and the risk of inventory depletion is imminent. The current Brent crude oil price of around $95 does not fully reflect the lag in recovery, and short-term volatility may intensify. The long-term trend depends on the speed of conflict resolution and the efficiency of supply chain reconstruction.