Download App

[Global Nickel Market Sees Supply-Demand Gap, Ending Three-Year Oversupply Forces Violent Price Reassessment] ⑴ The International Nickel Federation released its latest forecast on Wednesday, predicting that global nickel production will shrink sharply to 3.72 million tons in 2026 from 3.88 million tons in 2025, a drop of 160,000 tons, far exceeding previous market expectations. ⑵ Strong demand signals are also emerging, with global nickel demand expected to climb to 3.75 million tons in 2026, a net increase of 150,000 tons from 3.6 million tons in 2025. Resilient demand from the two core downstream sectors of stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries will be the main drivers of this increase. ⑶ A structural reversal in the supply-demand balance has clearly emerged: the global nickel market will abruptly shift from a multi-year oversupply to a supply-demand gap of approximately 30,000 tons in 2026, signifying a fundamental rewriting of the underlying code of nickel pricing logic. (4) Tightening Indonesian nickel ore policies, the clearing of high-cost capacity, and declining grades in some overseas projects have collectively woven a narrative of an unexpected contraction in supply, while the steady expansion of demand amid the energy transition is ruthlessly eroding the already fragile inventory buffer. (5) If this predicted path materializes, the depletion of nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange and the hidden inventories in China's bonded zones will accelerate significantly in the second half of the year, and the spot premium structure may gradually replace the current futures premium structure. (6) Traders need to closely monitor the development of Indonesian mining policies and the actual recovery pace of nickel ore exports after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines. Any supply-side disturbances will be interpreted by the market through the lens of an amplified supply-demand gap, and the marginal pricing power of nickel prices is shifting from high-cost capacity to the demand for profit recovery in midstream smelting. (7) Against the backdrop of a general increase in global geopolitical risk premiums, nickel, which possesses both industrial and energy metal attributes, has entered a non-linear explosive range in its price sensitivity to supply disruptions.