Geopolitical stalemate locks up supply, oil prices rebound strongly
2026-04-28 01:46:22
On Monday (April 27), during the US trading session, negotiations between the US and Iran reached a complete stalemate, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted, and expectations of production cuts in the Middle East intensified. As a result, international oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday, with Brent crude rising for the sixth consecutive day, reaching a two-week high. Geopolitical risk premiums have become the core of current oil market pricing.
The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations exacerbates supply panic due to "bottleneck" in the Taiwan Strait.
Diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, with face-to-face communication channels closed. According to sources within the Pakistani mediators' group, US President Trump canceled his special envoy's visit to Pakistan, stating that "Iran should call if it wants to reach an agreement," directly leading to the failure of this round of diplomatic efforts. Although Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi has been traveling between Pakistan, Oman, and Russia seeking communication, the core differences between the two sides remain difficult to bridge—the US insists that Iran unconditionally halt uranium enrichment, while Iran demands the lifting of sanctions and security guarantees; the resulting rift in trust cannot be repaired in the short term.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed, leaving the global energy artery "under-supplied." Data shows that only seven ships passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, far below the pre-war average of several hundred per day; approximately 10-13 million barrels of oil daily are unable to enter the international market, accounting for 20% of global seaborne oil. Even more serious is the fact that six tankers carrying Iranian oil were forced to return to port due to the US blockade, effectively halting Iranian crude oil exports and further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Market concerns about supply shortages directly drove oil prices soaring: At 01:40 Beijing time, Brent crude rose $2.58 (3.0%) to $101.71 per barrel, and WTI crude rose $2.22 (2.35%) to $96.262 per barrel. Brent crude has recorded its longest winning streak since March and is poised to hit its highest closing price since April 7.
Institutions collectively raised their forecasts, with Goldman Sachs warning of a "protracted period of high oil prices."
Middle East production cuts and geopolitical risks combine to drive investment banks bullish on oil prices. Goldman Sachs released a report on Sunday, raising its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil forecast to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, citing continued production declines in the Middle East and increased risks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Daan Struyven warned, "Current economic risks far exceed expectations. The combination of high refined product prices and product shortages creates an unprecedented impact."
BNP Paribas: Iran's New Proposal Unlikely to Break the Deadlock; Oil Prices Likely to Remain Above $90 Per Barrel in the Long Term. Iran, through Pakistan, proposed a new "reopening of the Strait of Hormuz first, nuclear talks later" proposal to the US—prioritizing the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, while postponing nuclear negotiations—attempting to circumvent domestic disagreements on the nuclear issue. However, the US has not yet responded, and this proposal would weaken the US's leverage on the nuclear issue, making reaching a consensus extremely difficult. BNP Paribas predicts that Brent crude oil will remain above $90 per barrel until the end of 2026, with geopolitical risk premiums persisting in the long term.
DBS Group: War Powers Vote Raises New Risks, Oil Prices Return to $100 Mark. On April 29, the US Congress will vote on the "War Powers Resolution," deciding whether "Operation Epic Fury" will enter the unauthorized phase. Market concerns that the Trump administration may continue military action, even escalating to a "double lockdown," have already pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, as investors struggle to balance supply threats with diplomatic hopes.
Inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to raise interest rates, and the global economy faces the risk of stagflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a dilemma as high oil prices force expectations of an earlier interest rate hike. The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday. While the ceasefire in Iran had eased pressure for an immediate rate hike, there are no signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the short term, and high oil prices continue to push up inflation. Traders widely expect the central bank to raise rates later this year. Rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs, suppress economic growth, and the global economy may face the risk of stagflation characterized by "high inflation + low growth."
The refined oil market strengthened in tandem, with crack spreads hitting a near two-year high. U.S. gasoline futures are poised to close at their highest level since July 2022 for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday; gasoline crack spreads, a measure of refining margins, also reached a two-year high last Friday, further supporting crude oil prices amid concerns about refined oil shortages.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating, and the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire is in jeopardy. The Israeli military launched airstrikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding its bombing range after a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah failed to completely halt the fighting. The multiple outbreaks of conflict in the region are further fueling market risk aversion, and the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil may continue to rise.
The core issue in the oil market has shifted from supply and demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. The timing of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether US-Iran negotiations will restart, and whether the Middle East conflict will escalate will be the three key variables determining oil price trends. Until these risks are clearly mitigated, oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, with the possibility of further increases not ruled out.
The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations exacerbates supply panic due to "bottleneck" in the Taiwan Strait.
Diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, with face-to-face communication channels closed. According to sources within the Pakistani mediators' group, US President Trump canceled his special envoy's visit to Pakistan, stating that "Iran should call if it wants to reach an agreement," directly leading to the failure of this round of diplomatic efforts. Although Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi has been traveling between Pakistan, Oman, and Russia seeking communication, the core differences between the two sides remain difficult to bridge—the US insists that Iran unconditionally halt uranium enrichment, while Iran demands the lifting of sanctions and security guarantees; the resulting rift in trust cannot be repaired in the short term.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed, leaving the global energy artery "under-supplied." Data shows that only seven ships passed through the strait in the past 24 hours, far below the pre-war average of several hundred per day; approximately 10-13 million barrels of oil daily are unable to enter the international market, accounting for 20% of global seaborne oil. Even more serious is the fact that six tankers carrying Iranian oil were forced to return to port due to the US blockade, effectively halting Iranian crude oil exports and further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Market concerns about supply shortages directly drove oil prices soaring: At 01:40 Beijing time, Brent crude rose $2.58 (3.0%) to $101.71 per barrel, and WTI crude rose $2.22 (2.35%) to $96.262 per barrel. Brent crude has recorded its longest winning streak since March and is poised to hit its highest closing price since April 7.
Institutions collectively raised their forecasts, with Goldman Sachs warning of a "protracted period of high oil prices."
Middle East production cuts and geopolitical risks combine to drive investment banks bullish on oil prices. Goldman Sachs released a report on Sunday, raising its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil forecast to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, citing continued production declines in the Middle East and increased risks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Daan Struyven warned, "Current economic risks far exceed expectations. The combination of high refined product prices and product shortages creates an unprecedented impact."
BNP Paribas: Iran's New Proposal Unlikely to Break the Deadlock; Oil Prices Likely to Remain Above $90 Per Barrel in the Long Term. Iran, through Pakistan, proposed a new "reopening of the Strait of Hormuz first, nuclear talks later" proposal to the US—prioritizing the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, while postponing nuclear negotiations—attempting to circumvent domestic disagreements on the nuclear issue. However, the US has not yet responded, and this proposal would weaken the US's leverage on the nuclear issue, making reaching a consensus extremely difficult. BNP Paribas predicts that Brent crude oil will remain above $90 per barrel until the end of 2026, with geopolitical risk premiums persisting in the long term.
DBS Group: War Powers Vote Raises New Risks, Oil Prices Return to $100 Mark. On April 29, the US Congress will vote on the "War Powers Resolution," deciding whether "Operation Epic Fury" will enter the unauthorized phase. Market concerns that the Trump administration may continue military action, even escalating to a "double lockdown," have already pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, as investors struggle to balance supply threats with diplomatic hopes.
Inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to raise interest rates, and the global economy faces the risk of stagflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a dilemma as high oil prices force expectations of an earlier interest rate hike. The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday. While the ceasefire in Iran had eased pressure for an immediate rate hike, there are no signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the short term, and high oil prices continue to push up inflation. Traders widely expect the central bank to raise rates later this year. Rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs, suppress economic growth, and the global economy may face the risk of stagflation characterized by "high inflation + low growth."
The refined oil market strengthened in tandem, with crack spreads hitting a near two-year high. U.S. gasoline futures are poised to close at their highest level since July 2022 for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday; gasoline crack spreads, a measure of refining margins, also reached a two-year high last Friday, further supporting crude oil prices amid concerns about refined oil shortages.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating, and the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire is in jeopardy. The Israeli military launched airstrikes in eastern Lebanon on Monday, expanding its bombing range after a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah failed to completely halt the fighting. The multiple outbreaks of conflict in the region are further fueling market risk aversion, and the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil may continue to rise.
The core issue in the oil market has shifted from supply and demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. The timing of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether US-Iran negotiations will restart, and whether the Middle East conflict will escalate will be the three key variables determining oil price trends. Until these risks are clearly mitigated, oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, with the possibility of further increases not ruled out.
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