The dollar index rebounded slightly as safe-haven demand rose and the Federal Reserve decision approached.
2026-04-28 14:27:28
On Tuesday during Asian trading hours, the US dollar index rebounded, regaining the 98.50 level and ending a two-day pullback. The current dollar rebound is mainly supported by safe-haven demand, while market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has led to overall signs of stabilization in the exchange rate.
From a geopolitical perspective, negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. Although Iran has proposed restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz and postponing nuclear discussions if the US lifts its blockade and ends the conflict, the US stance remains firm, and core differences remain unresolved. This means that the situation in the Middle East is unlikely to ease quickly in the short term, and uncertainty surrounding key energy routes persists , thus increasing market risk aversion.
Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury Department is intensifying sanctions in related sectors, further escalating geopolitical tensions. This policy move has reinforced market caution towards risk assets and provided additional support for the dollar.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is the focus of the market. The market widely expects the federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% , marking the third consecutive day of no change. While the interest rate path remains stable in the short term, the market is more concerned about the future policy direction, especially given the divergence between inflation and economic growth.
The market is currently divided on the future path of interest rate cuts. On the one hand, some investors expect a more aggressive easing cycle; on the other hand, Federal Reserve officials emphasize policy independence, suggesting a lack of easy shift. This discrepancy in expectations leaves the dollar without a clear direction, but it still provides support during periods of heightened risk.
Judging from market reactions, the US dollar index is currently in a state of equilibrium driven by multiple factors. On the one hand, safe-haven demand and interest rate advantages support the dollar; on the other hand, market expectations of future policy easing limit its upside potential. Global funds are repeatedly switching between risky and safe-haven assets, leading to increased volatility in the dollar but an unclear trend.
From a sentiment perspective, investors are currently in a clear "event-driven waiting period." Before the Fed's decision and the situation in the Middle East become clear, the market tends to maintain a defensive stance, which provides short-term support for the US dollar.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the US dollar index shows that prices have stabilized after a pullback, and are still trading within a range overall. The 99.20 area forms short-term resistance ; a break above this level could lead to a further test of the 100 psychological level . On the downside, 98.00 is key support ; a break below this level could lead to a return to the 97.50 area . In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI has rebounded from a low level to neutral territory, and the MACD has shown initial signs of bottoming out, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is forming.
On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index shows a rebound and recovery structure, with prices gradually rising from the lows and forming an upward channel in the short term. The RSI remains above 50, indicating that the bulls are in control in the short term; the MACD golden cross has formed, and the momentum is strengthening. If the price can hold above 98.50, the short-term rebound is expected to continue; conversely, if it falls below this level, it may re-enter a trading range.
Editor's Summary : Overall, the US dollar index is currently driven by both safe-haven demand and policy expectations, experiencing a technical rebound after a pullback. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides support for the dollar, while the Federal Reserve's policy path will determine its medium-term direction. In the short term, the dollar may maintain a volatile but slightly bullish pattern, but whether it can continue its upward trend depends on central bank statements and changes in risk sentiment. During key event windows, market volatility may intensify, requiring close attention to breakouts of important resistance and support levels.
From a geopolitical perspective, negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. Although Iran has proposed restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz and postponing nuclear discussions if the US lifts its blockade and ends the conflict, the US stance remains firm, and core differences remain unresolved. This means that the situation in the Middle East is unlikely to ease quickly in the short term, and uncertainty surrounding key energy routes persists , thus increasing market risk aversion.
Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury Department is intensifying sanctions in related sectors, further escalating geopolitical tensions. This policy move has reinforced market caution towards risk assets and provided additional support for the dollar.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is the focus of the market. The market widely expects the federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% , marking the third consecutive day of no change. While the interest rate path remains stable in the short term, the market is more concerned about the future policy direction, especially given the divergence between inflation and economic growth.
The market is currently divided on the future path of interest rate cuts. On the one hand, some investors expect a more aggressive easing cycle; on the other hand, Federal Reserve officials emphasize policy independence, suggesting a lack of easy shift. This discrepancy in expectations leaves the dollar without a clear direction, but it still provides support during periods of heightened risk.
Judging from market reactions, the US dollar index is currently in a state of equilibrium driven by multiple factors. On the one hand, safe-haven demand and interest rate advantages support the dollar; on the other hand, market expectations of future policy easing limit its upside potential. Global funds are repeatedly switching between risky and safe-haven assets, leading to increased volatility in the dollar but an unclear trend.
From a sentiment perspective, investors are currently in a clear "event-driven waiting period." Before the Fed's decision and the situation in the Middle East become clear, the market tends to maintain a defensive stance, which provides short-term support for the US dollar.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the US dollar index shows that prices have stabilized after a pullback, and are still trading within a range overall. The 99.20 area forms short-term resistance ; a break above this level could lead to a further test of the 100 psychological level . On the downside, 98.00 is key support ; a break below this level could lead to a return to the 97.50 area . In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI has rebounded from a low level to neutral territory, and the MACD has shown initial signs of bottoming out, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is forming.
On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index shows a rebound and recovery structure, with prices gradually rising from the lows and forming an upward channel in the short term. The RSI remains above 50, indicating that the bulls are in control in the short term; the MACD golden cross has formed, and the momentum is strengthening. If the price can hold above 98.50, the short-term rebound is expected to continue; conversely, if it falls below this level, it may re-enter a trading range.
Editor's Summary : Overall, the US dollar index is currently driven by both safe-haven demand and policy expectations, experiencing a technical rebound after a pullback. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides support for the dollar, while the Federal Reserve's policy path will determine its medium-term direction. In the short term, the dollar may maintain a volatile but slightly bullish pattern, but whether it can continue its upward trend depends on central bank statements and changes in risk sentiment. During key event windows, market volatility may intensify, requiring close attention to breakouts of important resistance and support levels.
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