Global central bank policy tightening expectations coupled with a stronger dollar caused silver to fall below $73, hitting a two-week low.
2026-04-28 15:52:50
On Tuesday, international silver prices continued their decline, accelerating to around $73.35 , a near two-week low. Unlike previous market movements driven by geopolitical risks, the market focus is now gradually shifting to the monetary policy paths of major central banks worldwide. With several central banks set to announce their interest rate decisions, investors are reassessing the impact of the interest rate environment on precious metals such as silver.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the energy shock triggered by the Middle East situation continues to escalate, pushing up global inflationary pressures. Uncertainty surrounding crude oil supply has led to a significant rise in energy prices; current oil prices are about 50% higher than before the conflict . This change directly exacerbates the pressure on central banks worldwide to control inflation. Against this backdrop, the market widely expects major central banks to maintain a tight monetary policy stance, and even the possibility of further interest rate hikes in some economies in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
This environment is unfavorable for silver. As an asset that does not generate interest, silver's holding costs increase relatively when interest rates rise or remain high, thus weakening its investment appeal. Therefore, under the current combination of "high inflation + high interest rate expectations," silver is under overall pressure.
Meanwhile, while geopolitical tensions have fluctuated, their impact on the market is shifting. Despite the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to key energy routes, market risk aversion has not completely subsided, but funds are flowing more towards the US dollar than precious metals. As the world's primary reserve currency, the US dollar retains greater liquidity in an uncertain environment, thus putting downward pressure on silver, which is priced in US dollars.
The US assessment of the current situation remains cautious, and its proposals have failed to meet core demands, making a rapid easing of the situation unlikely in the short term. This uncertainty, while supporting the US dollar, has also weakened silver's safe-haven appeal, leading to a continued decline in its price.
From an overall trend perspective, since reaching a high above $83 in mid-April, silver has entered a clear correction phase, with the market center of gravity continuously shifting downwards, indicating that bearish forces are gradually strengthening. Given the current lack of significant changes in the macroeconomic environment, silver will continue to face downward pressure in the short term.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows silver maintaining a clear downtrend, with prices consistently trading below key moving averages and no clear rebound signal emerging. The key retracement level of the previous uptrend has been broken, indicating a weakening market structure. The current important support level is around $72.60 , which corresponds to the previous low; a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $70 psychological level.
From the 4-hour chart, short-term technical indicators further reinforce the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 35 , indicating that the market is in a weak zone but has not yet reached extreme oversold levels; the MACD indicator remains below the zero line, with the histogram showing negative values, indicating that bearish momentum continues. Meanwhile, silver has broken below the key Fibonacci retracement level of $74.70 , which has now turned from support into resistance, and any subsequent rebound is expected to face significant selling pressure.
If a rebound occurs, the first resistance level to watch is $74.70 , followed by $76.60 and the $78.50 area; if the decline continues, the support levels at $72.60 and the $70 mark should be closely monitored.
Editor's Summary:
The silver market is currently driven by macroeconomic factors, with global central bank policy expectations being the core driver. In an environment of coexisting inflationary pressures and expectations of monetary tightening, precious metals are under pressure overall. Although geopolitical uncertainties provide some support, the safe-haven advantage of the US dollar is more prominent, weakening silver's appeal. The key to future price movements lies in whether central bank policies shift and whether energy prices continue to push up inflation expectations. In the short term, silver is expected to remain weak, but a technical rebound should be anticipated as it approaches key support levels.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the energy shock triggered by the Middle East situation continues to escalate, pushing up global inflationary pressures. Uncertainty surrounding crude oil supply has led to a significant rise in energy prices; current oil prices are about 50% higher than before the conflict . This change directly exacerbates the pressure on central banks worldwide to control inflation. Against this backdrop, the market widely expects major central banks to maintain a tight monetary policy stance, and even the possibility of further interest rate hikes in some economies in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
This environment is unfavorable for silver. As an asset that does not generate interest, silver's holding costs increase relatively when interest rates rise or remain high, thus weakening its investment appeal. Therefore, under the current combination of "high inflation + high interest rate expectations," silver is under overall pressure.
Meanwhile, while geopolitical tensions have fluctuated, their impact on the market is shifting. Despite the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to key energy routes, market risk aversion has not completely subsided, but funds are flowing more towards the US dollar than precious metals. As the world's primary reserve currency, the US dollar retains greater liquidity in an uncertain environment, thus putting downward pressure on silver, which is priced in US dollars.
The US assessment of the current situation remains cautious, and its proposals have failed to meet core demands, making a rapid easing of the situation unlikely in the short term. This uncertainty, while supporting the US dollar, has also weakened silver's safe-haven appeal, leading to a continued decline in its price.
From an overall trend perspective, since reaching a high above $83 in mid-April, silver has entered a clear correction phase, with the market center of gravity continuously shifting downwards, indicating that bearish forces are gradually strengthening. Given the current lack of significant changes in the macroeconomic environment, silver will continue to face downward pressure in the short term.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows silver maintaining a clear downtrend, with prices consistently trading below key moving averages and no clear rebound signal emerging. The key retracement level of the previous uptrend has been broken, indicating a weakening market structure. The current important support level is around $72.60 , which corresponds to the previous low; a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the $70 psychological level.
From the 4-hour chart, short-term technical indicators further reinforce the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 35 , indicating that the market is in a weak zone but has not yet reached extreme oversold levels; the MACD indicator remains below the zero line, with the histogram showing negative values, indicating that bearish momentum continues. Meanwhile, silver has broken below the key Fibonacci retracement level of $74.70 , which has now turned from support into resistance, and any subsequent rebound is expected to face significant selling pressure.
If a rebound occurs, the first resistance level to watch is $74.70 , followed by $76.60 and the $78.50 area; if the decline continues, the support levels at $72.60 and the $70 mark should be closely monitored.
Editor's Summary:
The silver market is currently driven by macroeconomic factors, with global central bank policy expectations being the core driver. In an environment of coexisting inflationary pressures and expectations of monetary tightening, precious metals are under pressure overall. Although geopolitical uncertainties provide some support, the safe-haven advantage of the US dollar is more prominent, weakening silver's appeal. The key to future price movements lies in whether central bank policies shift and whether energy prices continue to push up inflation expectations. In the short term, silver is expected to remain weak, but a technical rebound should be anticipated as it approaches key support levels.
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