The 1 billion barrel oil supply gap continues to widen, and even with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it will still take several months for things to return to normal.
2026-05-12 11:31:01
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil shipping route, has been severely impacted by its disruption, causing a supply gap of 1 billion barrels over the past two and a half months, and this gap continues to widen. Even if the strait were to reopen immediately today, it would take several months for the global oil market to return to normal.
Saudi Aramco, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total Energy and other international oil giants have issued warnings, pointing out that the supply shock has led to a sharp depletion of global inventories and some regions are facing procurement difficulties. The stalemate in the Middle East geopolitical situation has further complicated the road to market recovery.
As the world's largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser made a clear assessment of the current oil market situation. He stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, the global oil market would find it difficult to quickly return to normal. The core reason is that in the past two and a half months, the global oil supply and demand balance has accumulated a huge gap of 1 billion barrels. Such a large-scale supply loss cannot be compensated simply by reopening the shipping lanes.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed for a full month in the first quarter of this year, Saudi Aramco still delivered first-quarter financial results that exceeded market expectations. In the company's financial statement, Nasser stated that Saudi Aramco demonstrated exceptional operational flexibility in the face of the shipping blockade, successfully circumventing the blockade by diverting exported crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline. He emphasized that this pipeline, now at its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, has become a crucial supply artery for mitigating global energy shocks and effectively reducing the impact of shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz on global customers. He also pointed out that the recent energy supply crisis clearly highlights the vital contribution of oil and gas resources to global energy security and economic development, and serves as a reminder once again that a reliable energy supply is of paramount importance.
The ongoing supply shock has led to a comprehensive decline in global oil inventories, with inventories being depleted far faster than expected in various markets. Asia has been the most severely affected, with many countries and regions facing difficulties in purchasing crude oil and struggling to ensure the stability of their energy supply.
It is worth noting that this 1 billion barrel supply gap is still widening daily, and even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be opened immediately and unconditionally, allowing tankers free passage, its impact on the market would last for months. More worryingly, US President Trump has explicitly rejected Iran's response to the peace proposal drafted by the US, meaning that hopes for a full resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term are extremely slim, and global oil market supply pressures will be further exacerbated.
Besides Saudi Aramco, other international oil giants such as Shell, ExxonMobil, and Total Energy have also issued warnings about the oil market situation, unanimously agreeing that the recovery of the global oil market will be a long process.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan told analysts during last week's first-quarter earnings call that the global oil shortage is now close to 1 billion barrels, and that both locked-up and untransportable oil and oil that has failed to be produced normally are widening the gap, which is deepening every day. He bluntly stated that the road to a return to normalcy for the global oil market will be very long.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods expressed similar concerns during the company's earnings call, stating that global oil and gas supplies are experiencing unprecedented disruptions, and the market has not yet fully felt the full impact of these disruptions. He added that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, even greater supply pressures will follow. Even if the strait were to reopen immediately, there would be a one- to two-month lag between the reopening of shipping lanes and the restoration of normal market flow.
Total Energy CEO Patrick Pouyanné also stated at the earnings conference that the supply shock caused by the situation in the Middle East has completely erased the expectation of a global oil supply glut in 2026. Currently, global hydrocarbon inventories are being depleted rapidly at a rate of 10 million to 13 million barrels per day, and this scale of inventory depletion further exacerbates market instability.
Overall, the 1 billion barrel supply gap caused by the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has already caused irreversible damage to the global oil market, and the collective warnings from major international oil companies confirm the difficulty of market recovery. Even if navigation in the strait resumes in the future, it will only be the starting point for the oil market to return to normal; supply and demand rebalancing will take at least several months. Against the backdrop of continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and accelerating inventory depletion, the volatile pattern in the global oil market is likely to persist, and uncertainty regarding energy supply will remain for a long time.
Saudi Aramco, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total Energy and other international oil giants have issued warnings, pointing out that the supply shock has led to a sharp depletion of global inventories and some regions are facing procurement difficulties. The stalemate in the Middle East geopolitical situation has further complicated the road to market recovery.
Saudi Aramco CEO Speaks Out: Reopening of Shipping Routes ≠ Normal Market Conditions
As the world's largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser made a clear assessment of the current oil market situation. He stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, the global oil market would find it difficult to quickly return to normal. The core reason is that in the past two and a half months, the global oil supply and demand balance has accumulated a huge gap of 1 billion barrels. Such a large-scale supply loss cannot be compensated simply by reopening the shipping lanes.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed for a full month in the first quarter of this year, Saudi Aramco still delivered first-quarter financial results that exceeded market expectations. In the company's financial statement, Nasser stated that Saudi Aramco demonstrated exceptional operational flexibility in the face of the shipping blockade, successfully circumventing the blockade by diverting exported crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline. He emphasized that this pipeline, now at its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, has become a crucial supply artery for mitigating global energy shocks and effectively reducing the impact of shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz on global customers. He also pointed out that the recent energy supply crisis clearly highlights the vital contribution of oil and gas resources to global energy security and economic development, and serves as a reminder once again that a reliable energy supply is of paramount importance.
Global inventory shortages highlight procurement pressures in Asia
The ongoing supply shock has led to a comprehensive decline in global oil inventories, with inventories being depleted far faster than expected in various markets. Asia has been the most severely affected, with many countries and regions facing difficulties in purchasing crude oil and struggling to ensure the stability of their energy supply.
It is worth noting that this 1 billion barrel supply gap is still widening daily, and even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be opened immediately and unconditionally, allowing tankers free passage, its impact on the market would last for months. More worryingly, US President Trump has explicitly rejected Iran's response to the peace proposal drafted by the US, meaning that hopes for a full resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in the short term are extremely slim, and global oil market supply pressures will be further exacerbated.
International oil giants collectively warn of a long road to recovery
Besides Saudi Aramco, other international oil giants such as Shell, ExxonMobil, and Total Energy have also issued warnings about the oil market situation, unanimously agreeing that the recovery of the global oil market will be a long process.
Shell CEO Wael Sawan told analysts during last week's first-quarter earnings call that the global oil shortage is now close to 1 billion barrels, and that both locked-up and untransportable oil and oil that has failed to be produced normally are widening the gap, which is deepening every day. He bluntly stated that the road to a return to normalcy for the global oil market will be very long.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods expressed similar concerns during the company's earnings call, stating that global oil and gas supplies are experiencing unprecedented disruptions, and the market has not yet fully felt the full impact of these disruptions. He added that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, even greater supply pressures will follow. Even if the strait were to reopen immediately, there would be a one- to two-month lag between the reopening of shipping lanes and the restoration of normal market flow.
Total Energy CEO Patrick Pouyanné also stated at the earnings conference that the supply shock caused by the situation in the Middle East has completely erased the expectation of a global oil supply glut in 2026. Currently, global hydrocarbon inventories are being depleted rapidly at a rate of 10 million to 13 million barrels per day, and this scale of inventory depletion further exacerbates market instability.
Summarize
Overall, the 1 billion barrel supply gap caused by the disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has already caused irreversible damage to the global oil market, and the collective warnings from major international oil companies confirm the difficulty of market recovery. Even if navigation in the strait resumes in the future, it will only be the starting point for the oil market to return to normal; supply and demand rebalancing will take at least several months. Against the backdrop of continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and accelerating inventory depletion, the volatile pattern in the global oil market is likely to persist, and uncertainty regarding energy supply will remain for a long time.
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