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[Caixin Futures: Most Ferrous Metal Commodities Under Pressure, Rebar and Iron Ore Diverge, Coking Coal Valuation Advantage Gradually Emerges] ⑴ Ferrous metals as a whole are showing a weak and volatile pattern, with rebar and manganese silicon showing weak volatility, iron ore fluctuating at high levels, coking coal fluctuating at low levels, and coking coal valuation under pressure. ⑵ Macroeconomic expectations and industry drivers are both weakening, and the rebar market may show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. In terms of capital flow, the top 20 long positions in the rebar 10 contract have reduced their positions more significantly, while the short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract have reduced their positions more significantly. Technically, the rebar 10 contract is testing the 60-day moving average support downwards. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support in the 3135-3150 range, with the 3200 psychological level as a reference for the resistance level. In terms of valuation, current steel mill profits are still acceptable, and the rebar 10 contract price is already below the cost line of Fubao East China's off-peak electricity, with spot valuation slightly high and futures valuation neutral. Operationally, maintain a strategy of selling on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. (3) On the iron ore supply side, shipments have rebounded somewhat, and with the Australian fiscal year-end approaching in June, mines have a rush to ship, and subsequent arrivals are expected to increase further. On the demand side, steel mills are currently replenishing their inventories, and pig iron production is steadily increasing, providing some support for spot prices. In terms of inventory, port inventories continue to decline. Technically, the September contract closed positive after fluctuating, with resistance at the 5-day moving average above and support at the 785 level, a previous area of dense trading. Overall, the weak reality of iron ore still needs to wait for a decrease in pig iron production to materialize. Short-term upside and downside are limited, and the market is likely to follow the fluctuations of finished steel products, but its performance will be stronger than that of finished steel products. (4) The coking coal market has recently shown a pattern of strong supply and weak demand: supply from producing areas is steadily increasing, customs clearance for Mongolian coal has slightly declined, while demand is insufficient, the auction failure rate has rebounded, and prices have fallen overall. Affected by supply guarantee policies, market valuations continue to be under pressure. In terms of funds, the increase in short positions among the top 20 positions is slightly greater than that of long positions. Technically, the coking coal 09 contract continued its downward trend with increased open interest, with the upper resistance level shifting down to the 1200 psychological level, and the 60-day moving average providing support below. Short-term prices may continue to adjust, but considering the valuation has already recovered somewhat and there is still some rigid demand, shorting is not advisable. (5) Driven by profits, independent coking plants are steadily increasing their operating rates, and the rigid demand for coke is relatively strong, but cost support is weakening. The fourth round of coke price increases has been launched, and whether it will be implemented remains to be seen. The expectation of short-term steel-coke price competition is strengthening. In terms of valuation, with the market correction, the 09 contract is trading at a discount to the last two rounds of price increases, and its valuation advantage is gradually emerging, which may limit further price declines. (6) Manganese ore shipments have declined somewhat, port manganese ore inventories continue to increase slightly, and plant operating rates have slightly rebounded but remain at low levels. The mentality of pressuring for lower manganese ore prices is prominent, cost expectations are weakening, and the overall supply and demand remains weak and stable. Technically, the open interest of the manganese silicon 07 contract has not changed much, maintaining a weak and volatile trend, with attention focused on the previous low of 5832 as support.