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[US Treasury Yields Surpass 5.2%, Triggering Reminiscences of the 2007 Crisis; Bond Vigilantes Return] ⑴ In a research report titled "Nothing to Watch... Just a Bond Market Crash," Albert Edwards, an analyst at Societe Generale, points out that the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has surpassed 5.2%, matching the level seen in June 2007—a few months before the global financial crisis. He believes the market is overly complacent about high borrowing costs, a sentiment pattern similar to that before past economic turmoil. ⑵ Economist Ed Yardeni notes that the "bond vigilantes"—fixed-income investors who express dissatisfaction with fiscal or monetary policy by selling government securities—have returned. He predicts this will force the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance at its June policy meeting and potentially raise interest rates in July, a dramatic reversal from the previously widely expected rate cuts. ⑶ Data shows that the annualized inflation rate accelerated to 3.8% in April, the fastest pace since May 2023. The futures market has seen a significant correction, with investors now believing there is a 49% probability that the federal funds rate will rise by the end of 2026, while the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year has dropped to only 2%. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, Edwards also singled out Japan as a new source of financial tension: the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds has climbed to its highest level since 1996, and the Bank of Japan is exiting its years-long ultra-loose monetary policy, which is tightening global financial conditions. He also pointed out that US-Iran tensions have pushed up energy costs and maintained inflationary pressures. Although Yardeni believes that the stock market bull run is not yet facing imminent danger and can be seen as an accumulation opportunity, both agree that the bond market is sending warning signals that deserve serious attention.