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[US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rebound 22 Basis Points, Oil Price Rebound and Yen Weakening May Trigger Selling Back; Fed's 4.6% Rate Becomes Next Barrier] ⑴ US Treasury yields continued to decline on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield falling 22 basis points from its high, but overnight gains were minimal. The rebound in oil prices and the weakening yen are putting new pressure on the bond market. The yen is hovering near its lowest level since the end of April, a level that previously triggered official intervention in Japan. Institutional data shows that the market still bets on a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its June meeting. The rebound in Japanese bonds has stalled or even reversed, which could push US Treasury yields higher again. ⑵ Crude oil futures appear to be nearing a bottom. If tensions persist, inventories continue to decline, and spare capacity is further eroded, the energy market may be forced to more aggressively repric the remaining supply risks, increasing the likelihood of oil prices rising to $120-$150 per barrel, thus quickly reigniting inflation concerns and putting new upward pressure on global yields. The market may be underestimating the reality that the so-called peace process is increasingly resembling a delaying tactic rather than a real solution. Iran is highly unlikely to concede on uranium enrichment or restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the core geopolitical risks remain unresolved. ⑶ The daily chart of the 10-year yield shows the Bollinger Band middle line at 4.47%, with the 4.43% area providing strong support. After the yield broke upwards from the extremely narrow Bollinger Band width, the natural short covering has pushed the 10-year yield back to the Bollinger Band middle line. Without a genuine peace agreement, and with Thursday's core PCE rising 0.4% month-on-month, the yield could quickly rise to 4.60%. Tactically, a two-way range trading strategy is maintained, but a preference for selling on rallies is preferred, with the 10-year yield expected to trade between 4.50% and 4.46%. ⑷ The European Central Bank warned in its semi-annual assessment that the Iranian conflict could trigger a series of global financial crises. Uncertainty surrounding the US government's commitment to multilateral cooperation increases the risk of policy shocks disrupting the international order. More persistent energy supply disruptions and significantly weaker economic growth could trigger a market reassessment of sovereign risk, while the presence of more price-sensitive investors such as hedge funds in the Eurozone sovereign debt market could amplify any sudden repricing of sovereign risk.