Previous articles have analyzed that the United States has the upper hand in the US-Iran game, but there is also the possibility that the United States may be weak and perceive the other side as strong. That is, even if an agreement is reached now to open the Taiwan Strait, it will not help the election, because the impact of rising prices on the election is already difficult to reverse. The United States maintains its negotiating strength not because it has the negotiating advantage, but because it can only gain public support in the midterm elections by signing an agreement that is beneficial to the United States.

In a cabinet meeting room in Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Trump were trying to maintain a high-profile optimistic narrative: once the US and Iran reach an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil supplies will return to ample levels and prices will plummet.

However, behind this "high-stakes game with an uncertain chance of winning," as described by Republican strategists, lies a fierce struggle between the US and Iran over the limits of time, physical space, and politics.

America's political deadlock: a forced "brinkmanship" policy

The White House's unusually aggressive stance of launching a barrage of attacks and loudly rejecting unfavorable agreements is not necessarily due to a strong sense of confidence, but may also be because America's "political bloodline" has run dry.

Latest data shows that the annualized growth rate of the US PCE price index climbed to 3.8% in April, while the core PCE rose to 3.3%, reaching a peak since Trump took office for the second time.

The Ministry of Commerce drastically reduced its first-quarter GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.6%. Oil prices have remained firmly above $4 per gallon for several weeks, completely eroding the tax benefits of the "Great American Act."

Consumer confidence has fallen to a record low, creating a severe "historic divide".

Election expert Vin Weber points out that "the macroeconomic landscape is largely set before summer arrives." Due to the widespread early voting in the United States, mid-September is Trump's "ultimate red line."

The economic principle of "rocket-like rise and feather-like fall" means that even if the strait reopens today, it will take several weeks for the positive effects to reach ordinary people's bread and oil.

Trump must resolve the battle completely within the next 60 to 90 days, or the Republican Party will lose control of Congress.

Therefore, the United States' choice to conduct high-profile bombing and force a peace through war is essentially to compress the cycle (time) of the game by using the intensity (space) of military strikes, attempting to forcibly break Iran's delaying tactics.

Iran's physical limits: the bloody finances behind the "oil storage tanks"

Unlike the United States, which is tormented by the countdown to the election, Iran's pressure comes from the cold physical and financial limits.

Iran's Achilles' heel is its overflowing oil storage tanks. Due to obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz and maximum pressure from the United States, Iran's land-based oil storage facilities are nearing their limit.

Currently, Iran is converting a large number of giant oil tankers into "floating storage" vessels in the Persian Gulf and is barely surviving by "bleeding" through the black market smuggling.

Once its oil storage capacity is completely depleted, Iran will face the desperate situation of having to shut down its oil wells.

Technically, once old oil wells are shut down, restarting them is extremely costly and technically difficult, which means that Iran's financial backbone is at risk of permanent damage.

Who will apply the brakes first? The ultimate clash in the game.

Currently, the situation between the US and Iran is mired in an extremely dangerous "two-way maximum pressure" situation:

Iran is betting that America's "political public opinion" will collapse first: Iran knows that inflation and high oil prices are Trump's weaknesses. As long as it can hold out through this summer and drag things out until September, the Republican Party's midterm election prospects will be completely overwhelmed by inflation.

At that point, Trump, facing a desperate situation, will have no choice but to offer a more favorable deal in order to secure votes.

Trump is betting that Iran's "national finances" will run out first: The United States is cutting off Iran's smuggling routes through precise military bombing and blockades, aiming to force Iran to sign a "treaty of surrender" that completely curbs its nuclear program and reopens the Strait of Hormuz before its oil storage tanks are completely full and its economy collapses.

Summarize:

Trump is betting his majority in Congress over the next two years on a complete solution to the structural problems in the Middle East.

As pollster John McLaughlin said, if the Republican Party can deliver on its three promises of "containing Iran's nuclear program, reopening the Straits, and lowering oil prices," it can completely turn the tide.

However, this high-wire act has an extremely low margin for error.

Democrats have been using the "high cost of living" as a core weapon in their close-quarters combat.

In this asymmetrical, breath-holding contest between the "political calendar" and "oil storage space," the Middle East situation will inevitably reach its most brutal showdown in the next two to three months.