The US-Iran peace agreement eased inflation concerns, causing silver to surge, but the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.
2026-06-15 14:13:40
Spot silver (XAG/USD) surged during Monday's Asian trading session, climbing to around $70, a recent high. The peace agreement reached between the US and Iran to end months-long military conflict and restore normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz significantly eased global energy supply tensions, rapidly cooling inflation expectations previously driven by rising oil prices and providing a rebound opportunity for the precious metals market.
Previously, tensions in the Middle East had driven international oil prices higher, with market concerns that rising energy costs would further exacerbate global inflationary pressures. This prompted investors to reduce their bets on easing policies by major central banks, putting significant pressure on silver assets, which do not offer interest income. With the emergence of a peace agreement, the market has readjusted its assessment of future inflation and monetary policy.
US President Donald Trump announced that he has authorized the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the simultaneous lifting of the maritime blockade against Iran. Iran also confirmed that an agreement has been reached, but further negotiations on specific commitments are still needed. Affected by the easing of supply risks, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell by about 4.8%, dropping to around $80 per barrel, the lowest level in more than three months. The decline in oil prices eased market concerns about persistently high inflation, thereby improving investment sentiment in the precious metals market.
However, investors will continue to focus on this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The market expects the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Future statements regarding the inflation outlook, economic growth, and interest rate path will directly impact the short- to medium-term trends of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and silver.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has rebounded significantly after its previous sharp correction, but it remains in a corrective phase and has not yet fully reversed its previous short-term downward trend. Currently, the price is still trading below the 20-day exponential moving average at $71.70, indicating continued selling pressure above. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to the 40-60 range, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and the market is showing signs of stabilization. However, only a further break above the 60 level by the RSI can confirm the formation of stronger upward momentum.
If silver can effectively break through and hold above the key resistance area of $71.70, it will be seen as an important signal of short-term stabilization, potentially leading to further challenges at the $78.83 and $80.00 levels. Conversely, if the price continues to be constrained by the 20-day moving average, the risk of a retest of lower support levels after the rebound should be noted.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver has seen a strong short-term rebound, with prices quickly recovering some of their previous losses, and short-term momentum indicators showing significant improvement. However, the current rise is more of a correction after an oversold condition, and whether it can transform into a new upward trend remains to be seen. If it can maintain its position above the $70 mark in the short term, bulls may continue to attempt to challenge the $71.70 resistance level; if it breaks below the key support level again, it may fall back to around $61.01 to find support.
Editor's Summary : The US-Iran peace agreement reduced market concerns about energy supply disruptions, and the sharp decline in international oil prices eased inflationary pressures, driving a strong technical rebound in silver prices. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates still limit the long-term attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets. Silver is currently still in a correction phase, rather than a clear reversal. Short-term investors need to pay close attention to whether the key resistance level of $71.70 is broken, and the further impact of the Fed's interest rate decision on the dollar and market risk appetite.
Previously, tensions in the Middle East had driven international oil prices higher, with market concerns that rising energy costs would further exacerbate global inflationary pressures. This prompted investors to reduce their bets on easing policies by major central banks, putting significant pressure on silver assets, which do not offer interest income. With the emergence of a peace agreement, the market has readjusted its assessment of future inflation and monetary policy.
US President Donald Trump announced that he has authorized the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the simultaneous lifting of the maritime blockade against Iran. Iran also confirmed that an agreement has been reached, but further negotiations on specific commitments are still needed. Affected by the easing of supply risks, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell by about 4.8%, dropping to around $80 per barrel, the lowest level in more than three months. The decline in oil prices eased market concerns about persistently high inflation, thereby improving investment sentiment in the precious metals market.
However, investors will continue to focus on this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The market expects the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Future statements regarding the inflation outlook, economic growth, and interest rate path will directly impact the short- to medium-term trends of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and silver.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has rebounded significantly after its previous sharp correction, but it remains in a corrective phase and has not yet fully reversed its previous short-term downward trend. Currently, the price is still trading below the 20-day exponential moving average at $71.70, indicating continued selling pressure above. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to the 40-60 range, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and the market is showing signs of stabilization. However, only a further break above the 60 level by the RSI can confirm the formation of stronger upward momentum.
If silver can effectively break through and hold above the key resistance area of $71.70, it will be seen as an important signal of short-term stabilization, potentially leading to further challenges at the $78.83 and $80.00 levels. Conversely, if the price continues to be constrained by the 20-day moving average, the risk of a retest of lower support levels after the rebound should be noted.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver has seen a strong short-term rebound, with prices quickly recovering some of their previous losses, and short-term momentum indicators showing significant improvement. However, the current rise is more of a correction after an oversold condition, and whether it can transform into a new upward trend remains to be seen. If it can maintain its position above the $70 mark in the short term, bulls may continue to attempt to challenge the $71.70 resistance level; if it breaks below the key support level again, it may fall back to around $61.01 to find support.
Editor's Summary : The US-Iran peace agreement reduced market concerns about energy supply disruptions, and the sharp decline in international oil prices eased inflationary pressures, driving a strong technical rebound in silver prices. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates still limit the long-term attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets. Silver is currently still in a correction phase, rather than a clear reversal. Short-term investors need to pay close attention to whether the key resistance level of $71.70 is broken, and the further impact of the Fed's interest rate decision on the dollar and market risk appetite.
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