Outlook Uncertain: Preliminary Hormuz Agreement Secured, Japanese Shipping Companies Remain Hesitant
2026-06-15 19:52:20
On June 15, 2026, at 4:12 AM Central Daylight Time, a major report was released: Although the US and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement on a ceasefire and Iran had pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, many Japanese shipping companies still had a large number of vessels docked around the strait, not immediately arranging for passage. The companies planned to wait until the agreement was formally signed this Friday and all official information was verified before scheduling vessels to pass through. This conservative stance reflects both the shipping industry's natural risk-averse mindset in the face of high geopolitical risks and the widespread skepticism in the global market regarding the stable implementation of this Memorandum of Understanding.
Since early March 2026, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, considered the world's energy choke point, has been thrown into complete chaos. Hundreds of oil tankers, liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, and various cargo ships have been trapped in this narrow passage. At that time, US-Iran negotiations were still at a stalemate, and the US, in conjunction with Israel, launched missile strikes against Iran, which Iran responded with a strong retaliatory blockade of the strait. During the blockade, only a small number of ships were allowed to pass sporadically, and the overall volume of shipping shrank significantly. Data from ship tracking agencies shows that initially, very few ships passed through each day, and although the number of ships has slightly increased in recent weeks, it is far from returning to the normal levels before the outbreak of the conflict.
Japan suffers from severe domestic energy scarcity and ranks among the world's most dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude oil and commodities. Statistics show that over 90% of Japan's crude oil is imported from the Middle East, and the vast majority of its shipping routes must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any fluctuations in the situation along this waterway directly impact Japan's domestic economy and energy security. Logically, Japan should be the most eager country to restore navigation through the strait. However, reports indicate that major Japanese shipping companies have unanimously chosen to postpone their actions, insisting on waiting for official documents to be finalized, and are unwilling to rush into action. On the surface, this appears to be merely a conservative business strategy, but at a deeper level, it reflects the industry's serious concerns about the reliability of this agreement.
The Conflict: Missile Attack Triggers Two-Way Blockade
To understand the current wait-and-see attitude of shipping companies, it is necessary to trace the complete cause of this crisis. From late February to early March 2026, the US and Israel launched precision missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, aiming to curb Iran's regional influence in the Middle East. Iran subsequently adopted asymmetric countermeasures, attacking US military assets in the Middle East and directly announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This strait, only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, carries about 20% of the world's oil transport and is also a major hub for liquefied natural gas trade, earning it the nickname "the world's oil valve." After the blockade took effect, Iran laid mines in the waterway and deployed speedboats for round-the-clock patrols, issuing clear warnings to vessels attempting to enter. Simultaneously, the US Navy blockaded Iranian ports, creating a two-way blockade that further strained the global energy supply chain.
International crude oil prices surged at one point, forcing East Asian energy-importing countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea to release their strategic oil reserves and reroute to alternative routes, but this resulted in a sharp increase in transportation costs and a significant reduction in transportation efficiency.
During the crisis, a Japanese oil tanker became the first vessel permitted to transit the strait after the conflict. This was due in part to Japan's long-standing diplomatic efforts with Iran, and in part to the Japanese vessel maintaining its Automatic Identification System (AIS) continuously and its navigation path being completely transparent throughout the journey. This "transparent navigation" model has been gradually rolled out in recent weeks, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volumes from the Persian Gulf and a downward revision of pessimistic market expectations regarding the crude oil supply gap. Current estimates of the supply shortage are far lower than the worst-case scenario predicted at the beginning of the crisis. Even so, the volume of traffic through the strait remains low, and shipping risk premiums remain high.
Japanese shipbuilders are collectively "waiting for the right moment": rational risk aversion or excessive conservatism?
The collective inaction of Japanese shipping companies is not an isolated case, but rather a shared risk consensus within the global shipping industry. Several senior executives of Japanese shipbuilding companies, speaking anonymously, bluntly stated: "To hastily commence operations before a formal agreement is signed is tantamount to gambling with the lives of crew members and billions of dollars worth of ship assets."
The Strait of Hormuz has a history of ship attacks triggered by geopolitical conflicts, with the 2019 tanker attack serving as a stark warning to the industry. While Iran has shown selective leniency towards Japanese ships in this conflict, the uncertainty surrounding the situation remains. Japan's reliance on a single energy source and its heavy dependence on Gulf oil further amplifies corporate concerns: if the agreement breaks down, ships stranded in the strait could once again become bargaining chips in the standoff, leading to another surge in maritime war insurance premiums.
Data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Joint Ship Tracking Platform shows that even with the relaxation of strait passage restrictions, many ship owners still choose to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, even though the voyage adds several weeks and fuel costs significantly.
However, this "wait for official signature before taking action" strategy has drawn criticism from energy analysts: Japanese shipbuilders are overly hesitant and may miss the initial window of opportunity for the reopening of shipping lanes, pushing up domestic refined oil prices and industrial production costs across the entire supply chain. The Japanese Prime Minister publicly welcomed the ceasefire framework reached between the US and Iran, but his remarks specifically emphasized the hope that the agreement would be implemented steadily and that freedom and safe navigation in the Taiwan Strait would be guaranteed; the wording itself revealed reservations about the agreement's effectiveness.
The Memorandum of Understanding faces three core controversies, casting doubt on its implementation prospects.
The memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran sets the framework for a 60-day extension of the ceasefire: Iran pledged to clear mines from shipping lanes and open the Strait of Hormuz free of charge; in return, the US would ease some sanctions against Iran and initiate further nuclear negotiations. The Trump administration announced that once the agreement is signed in Switzerland this Friday, the Strait will immediately be open to all ships worldwide. The negotiations were mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.
However, since its release, this memorandum has been the subject of continuous controversy, with the core criticisms falling into three categories:
1. Weak legal binding force
The memorandum of understanding is essentially a political document outlining the intentions of both parties, not a formally binding international treaty, and lacks a corresponding enforcement mechanism for penalties for breach of contract. Iran has a history of selectively fulfilling similar multilateral agreements, raising widespread doubts in the market about its ability to thoroughly clear mines from the waterways and stop speedboat harassment of merchant ships this time. Furthermore, Iranian state media has reported that it may charge transit vessels a service fee, completely contradicting the US's claim of "free access to the Strait," thus sowing the seeds for future friction.
2. Israel's stance creates significant uncertainty.
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office has made it clear that it does not recognize the current US-Iran ceasefire agreement and will conduct independent security and military operations. If Israel continues to strike targets on Iranian soil, Iran is highly likely to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz again, rendering the entire memorandum invalid. At the same time, proxy forces in the Middle East, such as the Houthis, may also use this opportunity to launch attacks on shipping lanes, further deteriorating the shipping security environment.
3. The execution timeline is unclear.
The memorandum only vaguely states "full resumption of navigation within 30 days" and "completion of mine clearance operations as soon as possible," without a detailed timetable for implementation. Clearing mines from shipping lanes requires specialized equipment and sufficient operational time. If a sudden conflict occurs during the mine clearance phase, it could easily trigger a chain reaction of crises. Historically, various Middle Eastern reconciliation agreements have generally suffered from the common problem of being "easy to sign but difficult to implement." Most observers believe that this memorandum is merely a short-term expedient for both the US and Iran, and cannot sustain long-term regional peace.
The global energy market is also maintaining a rational wait-and-see attitude towards the agreement: although international oil prices have fallen slightly, they have not experienced a sharp drop, which is enough to prove that capital is not entirely optimistic about the agreement's implementation. Analysts warn that if the memorandum remains only on paper, the global supply gap will widen again during the peak summer oil demand season, continuing to push up inflation levels in various countries. The continued postponement of flights by oil-importing countries such as Japan will further exacerbate the pressure on their domestic manufacturing industries and the cost of living for residents.
Geopolitically, the United States is employing a two-pronged approach of maritime blockade and diplomatic negotiations to reshape the Middle East's energy landscape; however, Iran has proven that "blockading the Strait of Hormuz" is a highly deterrent bargaining chip. How to balance the Iranian nuclear issue, the lifting of US-Iran sanctions, and navigational safety in the Strait remains the greatest uncertainty. Many geopolitical perspectives suggest that the Strait of Hormuz has become a new "strategic balancing tool" for Iran—without nuclear weapons, it can directly constrain the global economy simply by controlling this vital global shipping route.
Global ripple effects and market outlook
The spillover effects of the Strait of Hormuz crisis have long since transcended the boundaries of the energy sector: global shipping costs have risen and cargo deliveries have been delayed on a large scale; food and fertilizer imports to developing Asian countries have been hampered, posing a potential risk of humanitarian shortages.
The cautious wait-and-see attitude of Japanese shipping companies is essentially a reflection of the mature risk management logic of the maritime industry, but it also sends a clear signal to the international community: the resolution of geopolitical conflicts cannot be completely solved by a single agreement.
The key short-term milestone is the signing ceremony in Switzerland this Friday: if the signing process goes smoothly and both sides fulfill their commitments simultaneously, the volume of traffic through the strait is expected to rebound significantly within a few weeks, and the global energy market will gradually stabilize; if one party defaults or a new military conflict occurs, stranded ships will be trapped for a long time, and countries such as Japan, which are highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, must activate their contingency plans, including expanding crude oil import channels and accelerating the development of renewable energy industries.
In conclusion, the decision by Japanese shipping companies to remain inactive is not a passive wait-and-see approach, but rather a realistic assessment in the face of a fragile, temporary peace. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East in 2026 is highly uncertain, and only by continuously verifying the actual effectiveness of the agreement's implementation can this global energy lifeline truly return to normal shipping. Global markets are eagerly awaiting whether this memorandum of understanding can translate from a written commitment into a stable shipping route.
Since early March 2026, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, considered the world's energy choke point, has been thrown into complete chaos. Hundreds of oil tankers, liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, and various cargo ships have been trapped in this narrow passage. At that time, US-Iran negotiations were still at a stalemate, and the US, in conjunction with Israel, launched missile strikes against Iran, which Iran responded with a strong retaliatory blockade of the strait. During the blockade, only a small number of ships were allowed to pass sporadically, and the overall volume of shipping shrank significantly. Data from ship tracking agencies shows that initially, very few ships passed through each day, and although the number of ships has slightly increased in recent weeks, it is far from returning to the normal levels before the outbreak of the conflict.
Japan suffers from severe domestic energy scarcity and ranks among the world's most dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude oil and commodities. Statistics show that over 90% of Japan's crude oil is imported from the Middle East, and the vast majority of its shipping routes must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any fluctuations in the situation along this waterway directly impact Japan's domestic economy and energy security. Logically, Japan should be the most eager country to restore navigation through the strait. However, reports indicate that major Japanese shipping companies have unanimously chosen to postpone their actions, insisting on waiting for official documents to be finalized, and are unwilling to rush into action. On the surface, this appears to be merely a conservative business strategy, but at a deeper level, it reflects the industry's serious concerns about the reliability of this agreement.
The Conflict: Missile Attack Triggers Two-Way Blockade
To understand the current wait-and-see attitude of shipping companies, it is necessary to trace the complete cause of this crisis. From late February to early March 2026, the US and Israel launched precision missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, aiming to curb Iran's regional influence in the Middle East. Iran subsequently adopted asymmetric countermeasures, attacking US military assets in the Middle East and directly announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This strait, only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, carries about 20% of the world's oil transport and is also a major hub for liquefied natural gas trade, earning it the nickname "the world's oil valve." After the blockade took effect, Iran laid mines in the waterway and deployed speedboats for round-the-clock patrols, issuing clear warnings to vessels attempting to enter. Simultaneously, the US Navy blockaded Iranian ports, creating a two-way blockade that further strained the global energy supply chain.
International crude oil prices surged at one point, forcing East Asian energy-importing countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea to release their strategic oil reserves and reroute to alternative routes, but this resulted in a sharp increase in transportation costs and a significant reduction in transportation efficiency.
During the crisis, a Japanese oil tanker became the first vessel permitted to transit the strait after the conflict. This was due in part to Japan's long-standing diplomatic efforts with Iran, and in part to the Japanese vessel maintaining its Automatic Identification System (AIS) continuously and its navigation path being completely transparent throughout the journey. This "transparent navigation" model has been gradually rolled out in recent weeks, leading to a slight recovery in shipping volumes from the Persian Gulf and a downward revision of pessimistic market expectations regarding the crude oil supply gap. Current estimates of the supply shortage are far lower than the worst-case scenario predicted at the beginning of the crisis. Even so, the volume of traffic through the strait remains low, and shipping risk premiums remain high.
Japanese shipbuilders are collectively "waiting for the right moment": rational risk aversion or excessive conservatism?
The collective inaction of Japanese shipping companies is not an isolated case, but rather a shared risk consensus within the global shipping industry. Several senior executives of Japanese shipbuilding companies, speaking anonymously, bluntly stated: "To hastily commence operations before a formal agreement is signed is tantamount to gambling with the lives of crew members and billions of dollars worth of ship assets."
The Strait of Hormuz has a history of ship attacks triggered by geopolitical conflicts, with the 2019 tanker attack serving as a stark warning to the industry. While Iran has shown selective leniency towards Japanese ships in this conflict, the uncertainty surrounding the situation remains. Japan's reliance on a single energy source and its heavy dependence on Gulf oil further amplifies corporate concerns: if the agreement breaks down, ships stranded in the strait could once again become bargaining chips in the standoff, leading to another surge in maritime war insurance premiums.
Data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Joint Ship Tracking Platform shows that even with the relaxation of strait passage restrictions, many ship owners still choose to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, even though the voyage adds several weeks and fuel costs significantly.
However, this "wait for official signature before taking action" strategy has drawn criticism from energy analysts: Japanese shipbuilders are overly hesitant and may miss the initial window of opportunity for the reopening of shipping lanes, pushing up domestic refined oil prices and industrial production costs across the entire supply chain. The Japanese Prime Minister publicly welcomed the ceasefire framework reached between the US and Iran, but his remarks specifically emphasized the hope that the agreement would be implemented steadily and that freedom and safe navigation in the Taiwan Strait would be guaranteed; the wording itself revealed reservations about the agreement's effectiveness.
The Memorandum of Understanding faces three core controversies, casting doubt on its implementation prospects.
The memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran sets the framework for a 60-day extension of the ceasefire: Iran pledged to clear mines from shipping lanes and open the Strait of Hormuz free of charge; in return, the US would ease some sanctions against Iran and initiate further nuclear negotiations. The Trump administration announced that once the agreement is signed in Switzerland this Friday, the Strait will immediately be open to all ships worldwide. The negotiations were mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.
However, since its release, this memorandum has been the subject of continuous controversy, with the core criticisms falling into three categories:
1. Weak legal binding force
The memorandum of understanding is essentially a political document outlining the intentions of both parties, not a formally binding international treaty, and lacks a corresponding enforcement mechanism for penalties for breach of contract. Iran has a history of selectively fulfilling similar multilateral agreements, raising widespread doubts in the market about its ability to thoroughly clear mines from the waterways and stop speedboat harassment of merchant ships this time. Furthermore, Iranian state media has reported that it may charge transit vessels a service fee, completely contradicting the US's claim of "free access to the Strait," thus sowing the seeds for future friction.
2. Israel's stance creates significant uncertainty.
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office has made it clear that it does not recognize the current US-Iran ceasefire agreement and will conduct independent security and military operations. If Israel continues to strike targets on Iranian soil, Iran is highly likely to retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz again, rendering the entire memorandum invalid. At the same time, proxy forces in the Middle East, such as the Houthis, may also use this opportunity to launch attacks on shipping lanes, further deteriorating the shipping security environment.
3. The execution timeline is unclear.
The memorandum only vaguely states "full resumption of navigation within 30 days" and "completion of mine clearance operations as soon as possible," without a detailed timetable for implementation. Clearing mines from shipping lanes requires specialized equipment and sufficient operational time. If a sudden conflict occurs during the mine clearance phase, it could easily trigger a chain reaction of crises. Historically, various Middle Eastern reconciliation agreements have generally suffered from the common problem of being "easy to sign but difficult to implement." Most observers believe that this memorandum is merely a short-term expedient for both the US and Iran, and cannot sustain long-term regional peace.
The global energy market is also maintaining a rational wait-and-see attitude towards the agreement: although international oil prices have fallen slightly, they have not experienced a sharp drop, which is enough to prove that capital is not entirely optimistic about the agreement's implementation. Analysts warn that if the memorandum remains only on paper, the global supply gap will widen again during the peak summer oil demand season, continuing to push up inflation levels in various countries. The continued postponement of flights by oil-importing countries such as Japan will further exacerbate the pressure on their domestic manufacturing industries and the cost of living for residents.
Geopolitically, the United States is employing a two-pronged approach of maritime blockade and diplomatic negotiations to reshape the Middle East's energy landscape; however, Iran has proven that "blockading the Strait of Hormuz" is a highly deterrent bargaining chip. How to balance the Iranian nuclear issue, the lifting of US-Iran sanctions, and navigational safety in the Strait remains the greatest uncertainty. Many geopolitical perspectives suggest that the Strait of Hormuz has become a new "strategic balancing tool" for Iran—without nuclear weapons, it can directly constrain the global economy simply by controlling this vital global shipping route.
Global ripple effects and market outlook
The spillover effects of the Strait of Hormuz crisis have long since transcended the boundaries of the energy sector: global shipping costs have risen and cargo deliveries have been delayed on a large scale; food and fertilizer imports to developing Asian countries have been hampered, posing a potential risk of humanitarian shortages.
The cautious wait-and-see attitude of Japanese shipping companies is essentially a reflection of the mature risk management logic of the maritime industry, but it also sends a clear signal to the international community: the resolution of geopolitical conflicts cannot be completely solved by a single agreement.
The key short-term milestone is the signing ceremony in Switzerland this Friday: if the signing process goes smoothly and both sides fulfill their commitments simultaneously, the volume of traffic through the strait is expected to rebound significantly within a few weeks, and the global energy market will gradually stabilize; if one party defaults or a new military conflict occurs, stranded ships will be trapped for a long time, and countries such as Japan, which are highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, must activate their contingency plans, including expanding crude oil import channels and accelerating the development of renewable energy industries.
In conclusion, the decision by Japanese shipping companies to remain inactive is not a passive wait-and-see approach, but rather a realistic assessment in the face of a fragile, temporary peace. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East in 2026 is highly uncertain, and only by continuously verifying the actual effectiveness of the agreement's implementation can this global energy lifeline truly return to normal shipping. Global markets are eagerly awaiting whether this memorandum of understanding can translate from a written commitment into a stable shipping route.
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