ING lowered its price forecasts for gold and silver, as rising yields and a stronger dollar continued to weigh on precious metal prices.
2026-06-25 01:40:06
The US dollar's rapid rise and persistently high US Treasury yields have put significant pressure on the precious metals market, with international gold prices falling below $4,000 per ounce, hitting a new low for the year. Meanwhile, silver prices have also fallen below $60 per ounce.
After hitting record highs in January, gold and silver began a bear market correction, a move that surprised many traders and analysts. Ewa Manthey, a commodities analyst at ING, stated in her latest precious metals report that this sell-off fully reflects the market's shift in focus to high interest rates and a tightening financial environment.
The market is still digesting the signals from the recent Federal Reserve meeting. While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it signaled a rate hike later this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that price stability is the primary policy objective. Currently, the market is betting on a Fed rate hike as early as September, with a growing number of traders expecting a second rate hike in December.
Market expectations of a significant tightening of monetary policy have pushed the US dollar index back above the 100 mark, currently trading at 101.69, its highest level since May 2025.
Multiple negative factors continue to weigh on gold prices. Ewa Manthey stated that ING has lowered its gold price forecast for the second half of this year. She said, "We remain bullish on gold in the medium to long term, but the short-term market environment has become more challenging."
ING's latest forecast predicts that the average gold price will be $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 per ounce in the fourth quarter; previous forecasts were $4,850 and $5,000 respectively, representing a significant downward revision.
Although the multinational financial institution itself does not believe that the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates this year, Ewa Manthey reminded investors not to go against the market trend.
“High yields and a strong dollar will continue to put downward pressure on gold in the short term,” she said. “Geopolitical tensions have not attracted as much safe-haven money as they have during previous crises. Instead, the market is more focused on the inflationary risks posed by geopolitical conflicts and how rising inflation will affect monetary policy.”
ING also lowered its silver price forecast: the average silver price is expected to be $68 per ounce in the third quarter and $74 per ounce in the fourth quarter; the previous forecasts were $79 and $84, respectively.
EwaManthey analyzes: "The silver market as a whole is still in a state of supply shortage, but the core demand drivers that previously drove silver prices are weakening. The growth rate of silver demand in the photovoltaic sector is slowing down, and the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is continuously promoting silver reduction and silver substitution technologies, resulting in a continuous decline in the amount of silver consumed per photovoltaic panel."
EwaManthey stated that although gold and silver prices will face pressure in the second half of the year, the long-term fundamental support logic for both commodities remains intact.
“Central banks’ demand for gold remains strong, the diversification of foreign exchange reserves continues, and geopolitical risks remain high. However, the negative impact of rising yields and weakening investment demand has far exceeded our previous expectations. This round of gold price correction has led us to revise our price expectations, but it has not changed our overall assessment of the market.”
"We still believe that the long-term fundamental factors supporting gold prices have not changed, but the pace of gold price increases will be slower and the market volatility will be greater than previously expected. Even with this downward revision of our forecast, we are still optimistic that silver will slightly outperform gold. The continued supply-demand gap in silver, coupled with the development of the global electrification industry, will continue to provide support for silver prices."
After hitting record highs in January, gold and silver began a bear market correction, a move that surprised many traders and analysts. Ewa Manthey, a commodities analyst at ING, stated in her latest precious metals report that this sell-off fully reflects the market's shift in focus to high interest rates and a tightening financial environment.
The market is still digesting the signals from the recent Federal Reserve meeting. While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, it signaled a rate hike later this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that price stability is the primary policy objective. Currently, the market is betting on a Fed rate hike as early as September, with a growing number of traders expecting a second rate hike in December.
Market expectations of a significant tightening of monetary policy have pushed the US dollar index back above the 100 mark, currently trading at 101.69, its highest level since May 2025.
Multiple negative factors continue to weigh on gold prices. Ewa Manthey stated that ING has lowered its gold price forecast for the second half of this year. She said, "We remain bullish on gold in the medium to long term, but the short-term market environment has become more challenging."
ING's latest forecast predicts that the average gold price will be $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 per ounce in the fourth quarter; previous forecasts were $4,850 and $5,000 respectively, representing a significant downward revision.
Although the multinational financial institution itself does not believe that the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates this year, Ewa Manthey reminded investors not to go against the market trend.
“High yields and a strong dollar will continue to put downward pressure on gold in the short term,” she said. “Geopolitical tensions have not attracted as much safe-haven money as they have during previous crises. Instead, the market is more focused on the inflationary risks posed by geopolitical conflicts and how rising inflation will affect monetary policy.”
ING also lowered its silver price forecast: the average silver price is expected to be $68 per ounce in the third quarter and $74 per ounce in the fourth quarter; the previous forecasts were $79 and $84, respectively.
EwaManthey analyzes: "The silver market as a whole is still in a state of supply shortage, but the core demand drivers that previously drove silver prices are weakening. The growth rate of silver demand in the photovoltaic sector is slowing down, and the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is continuously promoting silver reduction and silver substitution technologies, resulting in a continuous decline in the amount of silver consumed per photovoltaic panel."
EwaManthey stated that although gold and silver prices will face pressure in the second half of the year, the long-term fundamental support logic for both commodities remains intact.
“Central banks’ demand for gold remains strong, the diversification of foreign exchange reserves continues, and geopolitical risks remain high. However, the negative impact of rising yields and weakening investment demand has far exceeded our previous expectations. This round of gold price correction has led us to revise our price expectations, but it has not changed our overall assessment of the market.”
"We still believe that the long-term fundamental factors supporting gold prices have not changed, but the pace of gold price increases will be slower and the market volatility will be greater than previously expected. Even with this downward revision of our forecast, we are still optimistic that silver will slightly outperform gold. The continued supply-demand gap in silver, coupled with the development of the global electrification industry, will continue to provide support for silver prices."
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