Silver Market Outlook: Market Awaits Warsh's Speech on Wednesday; Silver Prices Remain Volatile.
2026-06-30 19:04:58
On Tuesday morning (June 30), spot silver rebounded after hitting a low, completing a standard V-shaped reversal. Prices have completely broken out of the previous low-level consolidation range and are continuing their upward correction in the short term. The key support level of $55.60 has accurately formed a bottom, becoming the core anchor point for this rebound, demonstrating extremely strong support effectiveness. From a medium- to long-term perspective, silver is still in the correction phase of the previous downward channel, and the bearish pattern has not completely ended. Only by effectively stabilizing above the key watershed of $60.84 can the medium- to long-term bearish trend be completely reversed, initiating a new round of medium-term bullish market. If this rebound encounters resistance and falls back, and prices break below the $55.60 support level again, the downward trend will resume, with subsequent downside targets at the long-term Fibonacci support of $46.48, and even the bottom range of $45.55.
Currently, the $55.60 support level remains solid, providing a strong foundation for the rebound. Continued buying pressure is pushing prices higher, but clear resistance levels above indicate the rebound will not be smooth sailing. The first short-term resistance is at $59.30, followed by the key pivot point of $60.84, while strong medium-term resistance is concentrated at $63.58. Notably, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $60.84 is the core dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment in this market cycle. Historically, in commodity markets, most deep corrections followed by reversals have been confirmed by a firm hold above this key price level.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
If silver prices effectively break through the strong mid-term resistance level of $63.58, it will clearly signal a bullish recovery, completely shaking off the previous weak trend. Subsequent upward targets could gradually be the 200-day moving average at $69.57 and the 50-day moving average at $72.23. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the battle between bulls and bears around the $60.84 pivot point directly determines the next phase of silver price movement: if it successfully holds above this level, a complete mid-term rebound channel will officially open, and the price will gradually test the $69.57-$72.23 range; if it rises and then falls back, falling below this watershed, this phase of the rebound will temporarily end, and the market will return to a weak, oscillating pattern. The downside potential will reopen, and the $46.48-$45.55 range will become a key support zone to watch.
Hawkish statements may slightly suppress the pace of the rebound.
If Warsh continues the hawkish tone of the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday, focusing on inflation, adhering to the 2% inflation target, and refusing to signal any timing for rate cuts, silver's current strong rebound will face selling pressure, slowing its short-term upward momentum. Looking back at the June Fed press conference, officials significantly increased the probability of rate hikes, and the policy statement removed all dovish language, causing silver to plummet 8.77% that week. However, the current market conditions, investor sentiment, and price levels are different. Silver prices have already bottomed out and rebounded, with a solid bullish foundation. Even if this speech replicates a hawkish tone, it is likely to only trigger a short-term deep correction, unlikely to completely break through the bottom support and restart a one-sided downward trend. The core support level of $55.60 will face a crucial test.
The US dollar's performance is highly correlated with the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar coupled with market expectations of interest rate hikes has been the core negative factor suppressing silver prices since January. If Wednesday's speech maintains a hawkish stance, it will reinforce the negative interest rate logic in the short term, interrupting the current rapid rebound and triggering a technical correction, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall short-term bullish recovery trend.
A more moderate tone may help the bulls accelerate their counterattack.
Conversely, if Warsh mentions that artificial intelligence will boost productivity and alleviate inflationary pressures in the long term, or if concerns about inflation have significantly cooled compared to three weeks ago, the roundtable forum will likely trigger a large influx of new buying in silver, further expanding and accelerating the current rebound. The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, resulting in a relatively cautious sentiment. If any dovish stance emerges, the market will quickly reprice interest rate expectations, putting downward pressure on the dollar, which would be beneficial for silver prices in both directions.
Walsh has repeatedly mentioned that technological progress and increased productivity have deflationary effects. If he emphasizes this logic this time, even without mentioning "interest rate cuts," the market will interpret it as an expansion of future interest rate cut space and a rise in expectations for marginal easing of monetary policy. Silver prices primarily reflect market expectations rather than actual policy implementation. Previously, short positions were highly crowded, but as the market bottomed out and rebounded, short positions have continued to loosen. Once policy expectations shift, it could trigger large-scale short covering, coupled with the entry of long funds, pushing silver prices rapidly higher.
Continued industrial demand provides a solid foundation for the rebound.
In addition to the recovery in macroeconomic expectations, robust industrial demand for silver has provided the core underlying support for this V-shaped reversal and rebound. Silver consumption in emerging industries such as photovoltaic panels, electronic components, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence infrastructure has been steadily increasing year by year. Even during the previous deep correction cycle, industrial physical demand never showed a significant contraction and has always maintained a stable and inelastic demand.
Previously, macroeconomic interest rate expectations had a far greater short-term impact on silver prices than physical demand, with industrial consumption serving only as a implicit bottom support. However, once the macroeconomic monetary policy shifts towards easing and the negative impact of interest rates gradually fades, strong industrial demand will fully unleash its positive momentum, driving silver's rebound to far exceed that of gold. Currently, persistently robust industrial demand continues to support silver prices, significantly limiting the potential for a deep correction and solidifying the bottom support. This is the core fundamental logic behind silver's rapid escape from weakness and its strong V-shaped rebound.
Overall, Warsh's speech on Wednesday will determine the short-term direction of the market: whether the negative impact of interest rates will cause a short-term rebound and slightly dampen the pace of this rebound, or whether the combination of industrial demand logic and easing expectations will continue to drive the bullish trend to continue and spread.
Key events and market outlook
The People's Bank of China's roundtable forum officially begins at 21:00 Beijing time on Wednesday. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate rapidly within minutes of the speech's release, and investors should pay close attention to the wording. If the statement is hawkish, silver prices will face downward pressure, with key support levels at $59 and $55.60. If the wording is moderate, the bulls will continue the current rebound trend, aiming to break through the key watershed of $60.84.
This time, Walsh doesn't need to issue any explicit policy decisions; subtle differences in wording can cause silver prices to fluctuate by several percentage points: a statement like "curbing inflation is the top priority" may trigger a short-term correction; a statement like "we will closely monitor various economic data" will continue the bullish rebound, showing a clear divergence between bullish and bearish trends.
The overall pattern for silver is currently clear: while the medium-to-long-term trend hasn't fully reversed to bullish and there's still room for downward correction, short-term technical indicators show clear bullish signals. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for correction until silver prices clearly break below the $55.60 support level. Only if silver prices effectively hold above the 50.84 level (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the historical high) can a formal confirmation of a medium-to-long-term trend reversal and the start of a new upward trend be established. Ahead of Wednesday's important speech, the market is generally observing and consolidating, awaiting a breakout signal. This speech may set the tone for the subsequent medium-to-long-term trend of silver prices.
Currently, the $55.60 support level remains solid, providing a strong foundation for the rebound. Continued buying pressure is pushing prices higher, but clear resistance levels above indicate the rebound will not be smooth sailing. The first short-term resistance is at $59.30, followed by the key pivot point of $60.84, while strong medium-term resistance is concentrated at $63.58. Notably, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $60.84 is the core dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment in this market cycle. Historically, in commodity markets, most deep corrections followed by reversals have been confirmed by a firm hold above this key price level.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
If silver prices effectively break through the strong mid-term resistance level of $63.58, it will clearly signal a bullish recovery, completely shaking off the previous weak trend. Subsequent upward targets could gradually be the 200-day moving average at $69.57 and the 50-day moving average at $72.23. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and the battle between bulls and bears around the $60.84 pivot point directly determines the next phase of silver price movement: if it successfully holds above this level, a complete mid-term rebound channel will officially open, and the price will gradually test the $69.57-$72.23 range; if it rises and then falls back, falling below this watershed, this phase of the rebound will temporarily end, and the market will return to a weak, oscillating pattern. The downside potential will reopen, and the $46.48-$45.55 range will become a key support zone to watch.
Hawkish statements may slightly suppress the pace of the rebound.
If Warsh continues the hawkish tone of the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday, focusing on inflation, adhering to the 2% inflation target, and refusing to signal any timing for rate cuts, silver's current strong rebound will face selling pressure, slowing its short-term upward momentum. Looking back at the June Fed press conference, officials significantly increased the probability of rate hikes, and the policy statement removed all dovish language, causing silver to plummet 8.77% that week. However, the current market conditions, investor sentiment, and price levels are different. Silver prices have already bottomed out and rebounded, with a solid bullish foundation. Even if this speech replicates a hawkish tone, it is likely to only trigger a short-term deep correction, unlikely to completely break through the bottom support and restart a one-sided downward trend. The core support level of $55.60 will face a crucial test.
The US dollar's performance is highly correlated with the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar coupled with market expectations of interest rate hikes has been the core negative factor suppressing silver prices since January. If Wednesday's speech maintains a hawkish stance, it will reinforce the negative interest rate logic in the short term, interrupting the current rapid rebound and triggering a technical correction, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall short-term bullish recovery trend.
A more moderate tone may help the bulls accelerate their counterattack.
Conversely, if Warsh mentions that artificial intelligence will boost productivity and alleviate inflationary pressures in the long term, or if concerns about inflation have significantly cooled compared to three weeks ago, the roundtable forum will likely trigger a large influx of new buying in silver, further expanding and accelerating the current rebound. The market has already priced in some hawkish expectations, resulting in a relatively cautious sentiment. If any dovish stance emerges, the market will quickly reprice interest rate expectations, putting downward pressure on the dollar, which would be beneficial for silver prices in both directions.
Walsh has repeatedly mentioned that technological progress and increased productivity have deflationary effects. If he emphasizes this logic this time, even without mentioning "interest rate cuts," the market will interpret it as an expansion of future interest rate cut space and a rise in expectations for marginal easing of monetary policy. Silver prices primarily reflect market expectations rather than actual policy implementation. Previously, short positions were highly crowded, but as the market bottomed out and rebounded, short positions have continued to loosen. Once policy expectations shift, it could trigger large-scale short covering, coupled with the entry of long funds, pushing silver prices rapidly higher.
Continued industrial demand provides a solid foundation for the rebound.
In addition to the recovery in macroeconomic expectations, robust industrial demand for silver has provided the core underlying support for this V-shaped reversal and rebound. Silver consumption in emerging industries such as photovoltaic panels, electronic components, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence infrastructure has been steadily increasing year by year. Even during the previous deep correction cycle, industrial physical demand never showed a significant contraction and has always maintained a stable and inelastic demand.
Previously, macroeconomic interest rate expectations had a far greater short-term impact on silver prices than physical demand, with industrial consumption serving only as a implicit bottom support. However, once the macroeconomic monetary policy shifts towards easing and the negative impact of interest rates gradually fades, strong industrial demand will fully unleash its positive momentum, driving silver's rebound to far exceed that of gold. Currently, persistently robust industrial demand continues to support silver prices, significantly limiting the potential for a deep correction and solidifying the bottom support. This is the core fundamental logic behind silver's rapid escape from weakness and its strong V-shaped rebound.
Overall, Warsh's speech on Wednesday will determine the short-term direction of the market: whether the negative impact of interest rates will cause a short-term rebound and slightly dampen the pace of this rebound, or whether the combination of industrial demand logic and easing expectations will continue to drive the bullish trend to continue and spread.
Key events and market outlook
The People's Bank of China's roundtable forum officially begins at 21:00 Beijing time on Wednesday. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate rapidly within minutes of the speech's release, and investors should pay close attention to the wording. If the statement is hawkish, silver prices will face downward pressure, with key support levels at $59 and $55.60. If the wording is moderate, the bulls will continue the current rebound trend, aiming to break through the key watershed of $60.84.
This time, Walsh doesn't need to issue any explicit policy decisions; subtle differences in wording can cause silver prices to fluctuate by several percentage points: a statement like "curbing inflation is the top priority" may trigger a short-term correction; a statement like "we will closely monitor various economic data" will continue the bullish rebound, showing a clear divergence between bullish and bearish trends.
The overall pattern for silver is currently clear: while the medium-to-long-term trend hasn't fully reversed to bullish and there's still room for downward correction, short-term technical indicators show clear bullish signals. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for correction until silver prices clearly break below the $55.60 support level. Only if silver prices effectively hold above the 50.84 level (the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the historical high) can a formal confirmation of a medium-to-long-term trend reversal and the start of a new upward trend be established. Ahead of Wednesday's important speech, the market is generally observing and consolidating, awaiting a breakout signal. This speech may set the tone for the subsequent medium-to-long-term trend of silver prices.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
