Gold continued its decline, and its downward momentum may accelerate after breaking below $4,000.
2026-07-01 09:43:57
Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded steadily in Asian trading on Wednesday, hovering around $3,980 per ounce , continuing its recent sideways consolidation pattern. Market focus remained on the conflicting signals from the US and Iran surrounding the Doha talks, an uncertainty that kept geopolitical risk premiums high but had not yet generated new trend drivers.
US President Trump stated that talks would be held in Qatar, adding that Iran had "initiated the meeting" following the recent military clashes. However, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson denied any formal talks scheduled for the next few days, causing market expectations for the negotiations to cool rapidly. Senior US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Vitkov have arrived in Doha and will meet with Qatari officials to discuss the regional situation, but as of now, no high-level direct talks between the US and Iran have been confirmed.
At the geopolitical level, the market is still weighing the possible paths between conflict and de-escalation. If the peace process makes substantial progress, safe-haven demand may decrease, thus putting some downward pressure on gold; however, if negotiations remain stalled or even deteriorate again, market concerns about energy and inflation may resurface, thereby strengthening gold's anti-inflationary properties. It is worth noting, however, that in a high-interest-rate environment, gold's attractiveness as a non-interest-bearing asset is limited, making it more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
On the macro level, the market is entering a crucial data window. The US ADP employment data and non-farm payroll report will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, serving as important indicators for judging the Federal Reserve's policy path. If the employment data remains strong, it could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a "higher and longer" interest rate policy, thereby pushing the dollar higher and putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if employment momentum slows, it could weaken the dollar's advantage, providing support for gold prices.
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation phase, with a densely traded support zone above $3950. The short-term trend exhibits characteristics of "high-level consolidation + momentum convergence." Current resistance is concentrated in the $4050-$4080 range; a decisive break above this level could open up upward potential towards the $4150 area. Key support lies around $3950 ; a break below this level would significantly increase short-term downward pressure.
From the 4-hour chart, gold prices have tested the $4,000 level multiple times without establishing a clear direction. Short-term moving averages are converging, indicating insufficient market momentum. Momentum indicators remain neutral to weak, suggesting neither bulls nor bears have gained a dominant position. Before the release of employment data, prices are more likely to remain range-bound, awaiting a macroeconomic catalyst to break out. If the ADP or non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations, it could trigger rapid fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to a directional choice in gold prices.
Editor's Summary : The current gold market is in a typical phase of dual competition between "geographical support and interest rate suppression." Uncertainty surrounding the Doha summit has provided bottom support, but US employment data and Fed policy expectations remain the core variables dominating the medium-term trend. In the absence of a clear breakout signal, gold prices are expected to maintain a high-level consolidation structure. If future employment data significantly strengthens expectations of continued high interest rates, gold may face pressure for a phase of correction; conversely, if economic data weakens, it is expected to reactivate the safe-haven and interest rate cut trading logic, pushing prices back into an upward trend.
US President Trump stated that talks would be held in Qatar, adding that Iran had "initiated the meeting" following the recent military clashes. However, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson denied any formal talks scheduled for the next few days, causing market expectations for the negotiations to cool rapidly. Senior US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Vitkov have arrived in Doha and will meet with Qatari officials to discuss the regional situation, but as of now, no high-level direct talks between the US and Iran have been confirmed.
At the geopolitical level, the market is still weighing the possible paths between conflict and de-escalation. If the peace process makes substantial progress, safe-haven demand may decrease, thus putting some downward pressure on gold; however, if negotiations remain stalled or even deteriorate again, market concerns about energy and inflation may resurface, thereby strengthening gold's anti-inflationary properties. It is worth noting, however, that in a high-interest-rate environment, gold's attractiveness as a non-interest-bearing asset is limited, making it more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.
On the macro level, the market is entering a crucial data window. The US ADP employment data and non-farm payroll report will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, serving as important indicators for judging the Federal Reserve's policy path. If the employment data remains strong, it could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a "higher and longer" interest rate policy, thereby pushing the dollar higher and putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Conversely, if employment momentum slows, it could weaken the dollar's advantage, providing support for gold prices.
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation phase, with a densely traded support zone above $3950. The short-term trend exhibits characteristics of "high-level consolidation + momentum convergence." Current resistance is concentrated in the $4050-$4080 range; a decisive break above this level could open up upward potential towards the $4150 area. Key support lies around $3950 ; a break below this level would significantly increase short-term downward pressure.
From the 4-hour chart, gold prices have tested the $4,000 level multiple times without establishing a clear direction. Short-term moving averages are converging, indicating insufficient market momentum. Momentum indicators remain neutral to weak, suggesting neither bulls nor bears have gained a dominant position. Before the release of employment data, prices are more likely to remain range-bound, awaiting a macroeconomic catalyst to break out. If the ADP or non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations, it could trigger rapid fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to a directional choice in gold prices.
Editor's Summary : The current gold market is in a typical phase of dual competition between "geographical support and interest rate suppression." Uncertainty surrounding the Doha summit has provided bottom support, but US employment data and Fed policy expectations remain the core variables dominating the medium-term trend. In the absence of a clear breakout signal, gold prices are expected to maintain a high-level consolidation structure. If future employment data significantly strengthens expectations of continued high interest rates, gold may face pressure for a phase of correction; conversely, if economic data weakens, it is expected to reactivate the safe-haven and interest rate cut trading logic, pushing prices back into an upward trend.
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