Silver prices rebounded to near the $60 mark after a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with falling energy prices and weaker economic data.
2026-07-02 13:43:48
Silver prices continued their upward trend in Asian trading on Thursday, rising for the third consecutive session to around $59.60 per ounce . This rally was primarily driven by a combination of shifting expectations regarding macroeconomic policies and volatility in risk assets, resulting in a significant improvement in overall sentiment towards precious metals.
The core factor driving silver's rise stems from a marginal adjustment in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains high, but also noted that inflation expectations have eased somewhat, without signaling further short-term rate hikes. This neutral-to-dovish stance cooled market expectations of rising short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and providing support for silver.
Meanwhile, the significant decline in global energy prices further strengthened the upward trend in precious metals. The crude oil market weakened sharply due to the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations, significantly easing market concerns about supply shortages and renewed inflation. As energy prices are a crucial component of inflation expectations, their decline directly suppressed expectations of rising real interest rates, thus indirectly benefiting precious metal assets such as silver.
From a macroeconomic perspective, recent US economic indicators have generally shown signs of cooling. June's ADP employment growth was only 98,000 , lower than the expected 113,000, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 , also below market expectations. These data reinforce the assessment of slowing economic momentum, shaking market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue its high-interest-rate policy.
Under the influence of multiple factors, market risk appetite has undergone a temporary adjustment, with funds beginning to flow back from overvalued risky assets to defensive assets such as precious metals. Silver, as a commodity possessing both industrial and safe-haven attributes, has received dual support in an environment of declining inflation expectations and easing policy expectations, exhibiting greater resilience than gold.
However, the market remains highly cautious, with the core focus on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data. This data will directly influence the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If the employment data is significantly weaker than expected, it may further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts or a pause in tightening; conversely, it may limit the upside potential for precious metals.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has rebounded continuously after breaking through the previous consolidation zone, indicating a short-term trend recovery, but it remains within a high-level consolidation structure overall. The current price is gradually approaching the previous resistance area; if it fails to break through with sustained volume, it may enter a high-level consolidation phase. Resistance levels are concentrated in the $61.50 and $63.00 area, while support levels are located in the $59.00 and $57.50 area.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver is showing a steady upward trend, with short-term moving averages maintaining a bullish alignment, but momentum is gradually slowing. While the MACD indicator remains in positive territory, the expansion rate of the momentum bars is weakening, indicating a more moderate upward pace. If the price remains above $60, it may continue its upward trend, but short-term caution is advised regarding potential sharp fluctuations due to the non-farm payroll data.
Silver is currently in a rebound cycle driven by both policy and inflation expectations. While the short-term trend is slightly bullish, a clear one-sided breakout structure has not yet formed, and it is more likely to exhibit a fluctuating upward pattern. Falling energy prices and cooling economic data are jointly suppressing real interest rate expectations, providing some support for silver. However, market volatility will significantly increase before the release of the non-farm payroll data, and a continuation of the trend still requires further confirmation from fundamental factors.
Editor's Summary:
Overall, the recent rise in silver prices has been primarily driven by a combination of factors, including dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, weaker US economic data, and falling energy prices, forming a typical trading logic based on expectations of macroeconomic easing. Short-term market sentiment is bullish, but the sustainability of the trend still depends on the performance of US employment data. Before the data release, silver is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. Weaker-than-expected data could open up further upside potential, while stronger-than-expected data could trigger profit-taking pressure.
The core factor driving silver's rise stems from a marginal adjustment in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains high, but also noted that inflation expectations have eased somewhat, without signaling further short-term rate hikes. This neutral-to-dovish stance cooled market expectations of rising short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and providing support for silver.
Meanwhile, the significant decline in global energy prices further strengthened the upward trend in precious metals. The crude oil market weakened sharply due to the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations, significantly easing market concerns about supply shortages and renewed inflation. As energy prices are a crucial component of inflation expectations, their decline directly suppressed expectations of rising real interest rates, thus indirectly benefiting precious metal assets such as silver.
From a macroeconomic perspective, recent US economic indicators have generally shown signs of cooling. June's ADP employment growth was only 98,000 , lower than the expected 113,000, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 , also below market expectations. These data reinforce the assessment of slowing economic momentum, shaking market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue its high-interest-rate policy.
Under the influence of multiple factors, market risk appetite has undergone a temporary adjustment, with funds beginning to flow back from overvalued risky assets to defensive assets such as precious metals. Silver, as a commodity possessing both industrial and safe-haven attributes, has received dual support in an environment of declining inflation expectations and easing policy expectations, exhibiting greater resilience than gold.
However, the market remains highly cautious, with the core focus on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data. This data will directly influence the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If the employment data is significantly weaker than expected, it may further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts or a pause in tightening; conversely, it may limit the upside potential for precious metals.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has rebounded continuously after breaking through the previous consolidation zone, indicating a short-term trend recovery, but it remains within a high-level consolidation structure overall. The current price is gradually approaching the previous resistance area; if it fails to break through with sustained volume, it may enter a high-level consolidation phase. Resistance levels are concentrated in the $61.50 and $63.00 area, while support levels are located in the $59.00 and $57.50 area.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver is showing a steady upward trend, with short-term moving averages maintaining a bullish alignment, but momentum is gradually slowing. While the MACD indicator remains in positive territory, the expansion rate of the momentum bars is weakening, indicating a more moderate upward pace. If the price remains above $60, it may continue its upward trend, but short-term caution is advised regarding potential sharp fluctuations due to the non-farm payroll data.
Silver is currently in a rebound cycle driven by both policy and inflation expectations. While the short-term trend is slightly bullish, a clear one-sided breakout structure has not yet formed, and it is more likely to exhibit a fluctuating upward pattern. Falling energy prices and cooling economic data are jointly suppressing real interest rate expectations, providing some support for silver. However, market volatility will significantly increase before the release of the non-farm payroll data, and a continuation of the trend still requires further confirmation from fundamental factors.
Editor's Summary:
Overall, the recent rise in silver prices has been primarily driven by a combination of factors, including dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, weaker US economic data, and falling energy prices, forming a typical trading logic based on expectations of macroeconomic easing. Short-term market sentiment is bullish, but the sustainability of the trend still depends on the performance of US employment data. Before the data release, silver is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. Weaker-than-expected data could open up further upside potential, while stronger-than-expected data could trigger profit-taking pressure.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
