The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its June non-farm payrolls report this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Major market institutions unanimously predict that the steady recovery in hiring over the past four months will likely continue, but wage growth will still struggle to keep pace with rising inflation, and the pressure on residents' real income remains unresolved.



Dow Jones conducted a special survey of mainstream analysts and macroeconomists across the United States and derived a set of core forecast data based on market expectations: 115,000 new non-farm jobs were added in the United States in June, the overall unemployment rate remained basically unchanged at 4.3%, and the average hourly wage for non-farm jobs rose slightly year-on-year to 3.5%.

The release of this year's jobs report was moved to Thursday, breaking with the usual practice of releasing it on Friday. The reason behind this is that the U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed all day on July 3 to celebrate Independence Day, so the relevant economic data will be released earlier.

A review of the overall fundamentals of the US job market

Looking back at the end of 2025, the US job market was in a state of continuous contraction, with negative job growth for several consecutive months; it was only in the last three months of 2026 that the market slowly emerged from the downturn and began to stabilize and recover.

According to the latest interim data, the recovery has begun to show results: in the previous three months, the number of new non-farm payroll jobs in the United States exceeded 170,000 each month, completely reversing the previous dire situation of continuous job shrinkage.

Even if the total number of new jobs announced on Thursday exceeds the market average expectation of 115,000, it will most likely be the lowest monthly increase since February this year, indicating a significant slowdown in job growth.

In addition, many macroeconomists have warned that behind the seemingly stable employment data lie many potential downside risks that have not yet been exposed.

In a research note released to institutional clients last week, Citibank economist Veronica Clark wrote: "The strong non-farm payroll data over the past three months and the stable unemployment rate at 4.3% have solidified the market's judgment that the labor market has fully stabilized and risks have been cleared."

However, a series of detailed sub-data points continued to weaken, leading us to believe that the seemingly strong non-farm payroll data does not necessarily indicate a long-term, sustainable expansionary momentum in corporate labor demand.

Citigroup has given a relatively pessimistic forecast for the entire market: it expects only a modest increase of 25,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% without significant fluctuations.

The North American World Cup caused short-term job market disruptions.

UBS's macroeconomics team specifically reminded market investors not to overemphasize the impact of the North American World Cup on the job market, and to avoid misjudging short-term employment data.

UBS's team estimated in a client research report last week that the World Cup is expected to create 15,000 to 20,000 new temporary jobs in the private sector in June.

These new jobs are mainly concentrated in temporary outsourcing, event spectator support services, and sports venue operations, while the hotel and catering service industries will hardly see any job growth.

The bank further predicts that the World Cup will not only be unlikely to boost recruitment in the hotel and catering industries, but the temporary positions created by the event in June and July will also disappear after the event ends, slightly dragging down the new employment data for July and August.

The North American World Cup will be held from July 11 to July 19, with matches taking place in professional stadiums in eleven major U.S. cities, including New York, Miami, San Francisco, Dallas, and Atlanta.

Of course, not all financial institutions hold a bearish view. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra released her opinion this week, predicting that non-farm payrolls will add 110,000 jobs in June, indicating that the overall performance still has a certain degree of resilience.

At the same time, she also clearly pointed out that there are significant downside risks: the surge in employment in the leisure and hospitality industry in May may have been partly due to recruitment efforts ahead of the World Cup, and partly due to the short-term effect of the Memorial Day holiday. If the high growth in May was mainly driven by holiday factors, then employment data in June will likely see a significant decline.

Concerns about a slowdown in employment this summer are gradually emerging.

Mishra also added a warning that the unusually large number of hires in the local government sector in May significantly inflated the base figure, and the hiring scale in this sector is likely to shrink sharply in June, resulting in a reverse data correction and further dragging down the overall employment performance.

JPMorgan Chase has given a relatively optimistic forecast, predicting that the U.S. will add 125,000 non-farm jobs in June, significantly higher than the market consensus.

In an analysis published Wednesday, JPMorgan economist Abel Reinhart stated, "Non-farm employment growth in 2026 is expected to accelerate significantly compared to last year, with an average of 188,000 new jobs added in the past three months and 92,000 in the past six months; in contrast, the average monthly increase in non-farm jobs in 2025 was only 10,000, highlighting a stark difference in the employment environment. However, we believe that the high average in the past three months has somewhat exaggerated the true trend of employment recovery."

"There is another signal that the market should remain cautious about: in the past two years, the three-month rolling average of private sector employment has bottomed out in August, and there is a possibility of employment cooling down again this summer."

Wells Fargo senior investment strategist Jennifer Timmerman offered her assessment: "Based on a comprehensive analysis of all employment indicators, we believe that the current labor market has merely stabilized after the deep weakening at the end of 2025, and has not yet begun a new round of full-scale strong recovery."

She also outlined several warning signs that warrant attention: "Persistently high fuel prices will exert a lagged effect on the economy, and the temporary boost to consumption brought about by the spring tax rebate policy has already faded. The overall economic growth momentum in the United States is likely to gradually decline, and the pace of job expansion will continue to slow in the coming months."

Salary growth is caught in a dilemma.

UBS statistics show that the current year-on-year growth rate of average hourly non-farm payrolls in the United States is only 3.4%, still remaining in the low range of the post-pandemic era; the latest data to be released on Thursday is expected to rise only slightly to 3.5%, indicating a very weak wage recovery.

High inflation has become the most pressing concern for Americans, with various polls and consumer confidence surveys reflecting a growing dissatisfaction among the general public with the current state of the domestic economy. Meanwhile, rising inflation at the upstream wholesale level has also significantly increased the operating costs for various businesses.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May saw its largest monthly increase since the end of 2022, and most macroeconomic experts regard this indicator as a leading warning signal of continued inflation on the consumer side.

The core personal consumption expenditure inflation gauge, which is of utmost importance to the Federal Reserve, has recently climbed to its highest level since April 2023, indicating a renewed rise in inflationary pressures.

The overall inflation rate in the United States rose to 4.2% in May, exceeding the year-on-year wage growth for the second consecutive month, indicating a continued decline in real income. Looking back to the end of last year, the average hourly wage growth for non-farm payrolls was stable at nearly 4%, but the upward momentum in wages has now slowed significantly.

The core driver of this round of sustained inflation is the soaring energy prices. Although retail gasoline prices across the United States have fallen significantly from their peak this year, the current average price is still 30% higher than before the conflict, making it difficult to alleviate energy cost pressures quickly.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research in the United States released an analysis on Tuesday stating that "there is no basis for a rapid short-term reversal in wage growth; only sustained strong corporate hiring demand can steadily drive a recovery in wage levels."

Wednesday's ADP private sector employment data (commonly known as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls") was released first, showing that private sector job growth in June fell short of most market expectations. Although historical data shows that the ADP mini-nonfarm payrolls and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official nonfarm payrolls report often differ, many economists still regard this weaker-than-expected ADP data as another warning sign of a weakening job market.

ADP Chief Economist Nera Richardson explained: "The latest hiring data reflects changes on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market. On the one hand, the time it takes for job seekers to find suitable employment is getting longer, and on the other hand, some sub-sectors are still facing constraints from insufficient labor supply."

Considering both supply and demand factors, the overall job creation rate in the United States has slowed significantly.