Silver is poised for a fourth consecutive rise, with three positive factors driving up prices.
2026-07-03 13:05:51
On Friday (July 3) during the Asian session, spot silver prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching a one-week high of $62.63 per ounce by 13:00, and are currently trading around $62.35 per ounce.
The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report missed expectations across the board—adding only 57,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 110,000—forcing Wall Street to aggressively reassess the interest rate outlook.
The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 66% before the data release to 52%. This, coupled with Warsh's acknowledgment at the Sintra Forum that inflation risks had begun to ease and the plunge in oil prices alleviating inflation anxieties, provided strong support for silver's continued rebound.
The June non-farm payrolls report released on Thursday was the core catalyst for the recent rebound in silver prices. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs, completely deviating from the market consensus of 110,000. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, the severe slowdown in job creation is itself a strong signal of an economic slowdown.
The market reacted swiftly. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike fell from 66% before the data release to 52%, a drop of 14 percentage points.
For silver, the easing of interest rate hike expectations means a lower opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets—this is the most direct positive transmission mechanism. Silver prices have risen continuously since the release of the non-farm payroll data, from around $60/ounce to around $62.20/ounce.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's remarks at the Sintra Forum provided additional support for silver prices.
He explicitly reiterated the central bank's independent commitment to the 2% price stability target, but acknowledged that inflation risks and inflation expectations have begun to ease over the past month.
This subtle shift in wording has given the market room for imagination—while Warsh did not release any clear dovish signals, the phrase "easing inflation risks" itself reduced the urgency of raising interest rates.
For silver, this statement signifies that even if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish framework, the actual policy path is becoming increasingly sensitive to inflation data. As long as inflation does not rebound beyond expectations, the necessity for aggressive interest rate hikes is decreasing.
Silver prices also benefited from an improved inflationary environment driven by a sharp drop in energy costs.
Commercial shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, and substantial progress was made in diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran in Doha, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had previously kept the energy market high.
The decline in crude oil prices directly impacted inflation expectations—lower energy costs reduced overall inflationary pressures, further diminishing the need for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates.
For silver, this transmission chain is not complicated: when oil prices fall, inflation expectations also decrease, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates decreases, the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets naturally increases, and silver prices are thus supported.
Silver is poised for a fourth consecutive trading day of gains. According to the daily chart, spot silver has risen from below $60/oz to around $62.50/oz, demonstrating strong short-term momentum. However, after this continuous rise, the price is approaching a key resistance area. $63.00/oz is the primary resistance level in the near term; a break above this level would target the $64.00-$64.50/oz area.
In terms of support, $61.50/oz is the first support level, and the psychological level of $60.00/oz is a more critical support level—this level is also the starting point of this rebound, and a break below it would mean that the rebound logic has been destroyed.
In terms of indicators, the MACD lines are still running below the zero axis. The DIFF line at -3.506 has slightly crossed the DEA line at -3.674 to form a golden cross at a low level. The red bars are showing a slight increase in volume, and the downward momentum has significantly subsided, but a strong reversal signal has not yet been formed. The RSI value is 42.61, which is in the neutral range. There is no overbought or oversold condition, and the battle between bulls and bears is relatively balanced.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 13:05 Beijing time on July 3, spot silver was trading at $62.36 per ounce.
The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report missed expectations across the board—adding only 57,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 110,000—forcing Wall Street to aggressively reassess the interest rate outlook.
The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 66% before the data release to 52%. This, coupled with Warsh's acknowledgment at the Sintra Forum that inflation risks had begun to ease and the plunge in oil prices alleviating inflation anxieties, provided strong support for silver's continued rebound.
Unexpected Non-Farm Payrolls: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Plummet, Silver Prices Gain Breath
The June non-farm payrolls report released on Thursday was the core catalyst for the recent rebound in silver prices. The US economy added only 57,000 jobs, completely deviating from the market consensus of 110,000. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, the severe slowdown in job creation is itself a strong signal of an economic slowdown.
The market reacted swiftly. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike fell from 66% before the data release to 52%, a drop of 14 percentage points.
For silver, the easing of interest rate hike expectations means a lower opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets—this is the most direct positive transmission mechanism. Silver prices have risen continuously since the release of the non-farm payroll data, from around $60/ounce to around $62.20/ounce.
Warsh stated: Inflation risks have eased, and the policy tone has been slightly adjusted.
Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's remarks at the Sintra Forum provided additional support for silver prices.
He explicitly reiterated the central bank's independent commitment to the 2% price stability target, but acknowledged that inflation risks and inflation expectations have begun to ease over the past month.
This subtle shift in wording has given the market room for imagination—while Warsh did not release any clear dovish signals, the phrase "easing inflation risks" itself reduced the urgency of raising interest rates.
For silver, this statement signifies that even if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish framework, the actual policy path is becoming increasingly sensitive to inflation data. As long as inflation does not rebound beyond expectations, the necessity for aggressive interest rate hikes is decreasing.
Lower oil prices: Lower energy costs and improved inflationary environment
Silver prices also benefited from an improved inflationary environment driven by a sharp drop in energy costs.
Commercial shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, and substantial progress was made in diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran in Doha, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had previously kept the energy market high.
The decline in crude oil prices directly impacted inflation expectations—lower energy costs reduced overall inflationary pressures, further diminishing the need for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates.
For silver, this transmission chain is not complicated: when oil prices fall, inflation expectations also decrease, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates decreases, the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets naturally increases, and silver prices are thus supported.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance levels are expected in the near future.
Silver is poised for a fourth consecutive trading day of gains. According to the daily chart, spot silver has risen from below $60/oz to around $62.50/oz, demonstrating strong short-term momentum. However, after this continuous rise, the price is approaching a key resistance area. $63.00/oz is the primary resistance level in the near term; a break above this level would target the $64.00-$64.50/oz area.
In terms of support, $61.50/oz is the first support level, and the psychological level of $60.00/oz is a more critical support level—this level is also the starting point of this rebound, and a break below it would mean that the rebound logic has been destroyed.
In terms of indicators, the MACD lines are still running below the zero axis. The DIFF line at -3.506 has slightly crossed the DEA line at -3.674 to form a golden cross at a low level. The red bars are showing a slight increase in volume, and the downward momentum has significantly subsided, but a strong reversal signal has not yet been formed. The RSI value is 42.61, which is in the neutral range. There is no overbought or oversold condition, and the battle between bulls and bears is relatively balanced.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 13:05 Beijing time on July 3, spot silver was trading at $62.36 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
