US jobs data cooled sharply, silver rebounded strongly, awaiting stress test.
2026-07-03 13:17:31
Spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its upward trend during the Asian trading session, climbing to around $62.40 , marking its fourth consecutive day of gains and exhibiting a steady rebound. The core driver of the precious metals market is gradually shifting from a single safe-haven logic to a multi-factor confluence of "interest rate expectation adjustments + declining inflation + dollar volatility."
The key trigger for this round of gains came from a significant slowdown in US employment data. The latest non-farm payroll data showed that the US added only about 57,000 jobs in June, far below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a clear slowdown in labor market expansion. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% , a slight improvement from the previous 4.3%, the weakness in the overall employment structure was more prominent, reinforcing the market's assessment of a slowdown in US economic momentum.
Influenced by the data, the market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to pricing in the interest rate futures market, the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to about 52% , a significant decrease from before the data release, reflecting a weakening market confidence in further tightening policies. The decline in real interest rate expectations directly increased the attractiveness of silver, a non-yielding asset.
From a macroeconomic perspective, silver also benefits from the temporary easing of inflationary pressures. The continued decline in energy prices is a key variable, with the crude oil market weakening due to easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the resumption of shipping from the Hormuz, indirectly suppressing overall inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of both declining inflation and interest rates, silver's financial attributes and its anti-inflationary properties are simultaneously supported.
Meanwhile, the temporary weakness of the US dollar provided additional upward momentum for silver. After the market reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy path, the upward momentum of the US dollar index was limited, keeping precious metals generally in a bullish position.
Geopolitically, while indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have not yielded any breakthroughs, market concerns about systemic supply disruptions have significantly decreased. This has led to a shift in the safe-haven appeal of precious metals towards a macroeconomic-driven rather than solely geopolitical-driven model.
From a technical perspective, silver's daily chart shows a clear step-like upward trend. After breaking through the previous consolidation range, the price has continued to rise, maintaining an overall strong bullish structure. However, short-term indicators suggest that momentum is entering a high-level extension phase, with increased price volatility above $62, indicating some profit-taking pressure in the short term. Key support is seen around $61.80 , which is both a short-term moving average support and a previous breakout platform. A break below this level could trigger a pullback to around $60. Resistance is concentrated in the $63.80-$65.20 range, a confluence of previous highs and psychological levels. A successful break above this area could open up new upward potential.
From the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clear bullish structure, but the RSI has entered a relatively high range, indicating a slowdown in short-term momentum. The MACD histogram is beginning to converge, suggesting a flattening of the upward pace. If the price consolidates above $62 with increasing volume, the trend is likely to continue; conversely, if it fails to hold above $62, it may enter a high-level consolidation phase. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of increased volatility is also rising.
Editor's Summary:
The recent surge in silver prices was primarily driven by significantly weaker-than-expected US employment data, fueling market expectations of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, easing inflationary pressures and declining energy prices reinforced the expectation of a more accommodative monetary environment. Supported by both declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar, silver has continued its rebound, but it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase, with significantly increased short-term volatility. Future price movements will depend on further confirmation from subsequent US economic data and Fed policy signals, creating a strong tug-of-war between a continuation of the trend and a technical correction.
The key trigger for this round of gains came from a significant slowdown in US employment data. The latest non-farm payroll data showed that the US added only about 57,000 jobs in June, far below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a clear slowdown in labor market expansion. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% , a slight improvement from the previous 4.3%, the weakness in the overall employment structure was more prominent, reinforcing the market's assessment of a slowdown in US economic momentum.
Influenced by the data, the market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to pricing in the interest rate futures market, the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to about 52% , a significant decrease from before the data release, reflecting a weakening market confidence in further tightening policies. The decline in real interest rate expectations directly increased the attractiveness of silver, a non-yielding asset.
From a macroeconomic perspective, silver also benefits from the temporary easing of inflationary pressures. The continued decline in energy prices is a key variable, with the crude oil market weakening due to easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the resumption of shipping from the Hormuz, indirectly suppressing overall inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of both declining inflation and interest rates, silver's financial attributes and its anti-inflationary properties are simultaneously supported.
Meanwhile, the temporary weakness of the US dollar provided additional upward momentum for silver. After the market reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy path, the upward momentum of the US dollar index was limited, keeping precious metals generally in a bullish position.
Geopolitically, while indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have not yielded any breakthroughs, market concerns about systemic supply disruptions have significantly decreased. This has led to a shift in the safe-haven appeal of precious metals towards a macroeconomic-driven rather than solely geopolitical-driven model.
From a technical perspective, silver's daily chart shows a clear step-like upward trend. After breaking through the previous consolidation range, the price has continued to rise, maintaining an overall strong bullish structure. However, short-term indicators suggest that momentum is entering a high-level extension phase, with increased price volatility above $62, indicating some profit-taking pressure in the short term. Key support is seen around $61.80 , which is both a short-term moving average support and a previous breakout platform. A break below this level could trigger a pullback to around $60. Resistance is concentrated in the $63.80-$65.20 range, a confluence of previous highs and psychological levels. A successful break above this area could open up new upward potential.
From the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clear bullish structure, but the RSI has entered a relatively high range, indicating a slowdown in short-term momentum. The MACD histogram is beginning to converge, suggesting a flattening of the upward pace. If the price consolidates above $62 with increasing volume, the trend is likely to continue; conversely, if it fails to hold above $62, it may enter a high-level consolidation phase. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of increased volatility is also rising.
Editor's Summary:
The recent surge in silver prices was primarily driven by significantly weaker-than-expected US employment data, fueling market expectations of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, easing inflationary pressures and declining energy prices reinforced the expectation of a more accommodative monetary environment. Supported by both declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar, silver has continued its rebound, but it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase, with significantly increased short-term volatility. Future price movements will depend on further confirmation from subsequent US economic data and Fed policy signals, creating a strong tug-of-war between a continuation of the trend and a technical correction.
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