The new Federal Reserve is presenting a new pattern of policy pronouncements rarely seen in decades. The deliberate silence of Chairman Kevin Warsh contrasts sharply with the flurry of statements from a host of Fed officials, completely breaking the Fed's long-standing single-core voice system and profoundly changing the core logic of the market's interpretation of Fed policies.

With the release of the latest June non-farm payroll data, the impact of this special communication mechanism on the direction of US monetary policy, market interest rate pricing, and gold prices has become fully apparent.

Walsh's core governing style: Abandoning forward guidance and adhering to policy silence.

After taking office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Warsh established a governing philosophy that was highly personal, characterized by de-forward-looking approach and low-signal output, which is also his core behavioral feature.

Unlike previous Federal Reserve chairs who proactively released policy guidance and locked in market expectations, Warsh consistently adhered to the "constraint of speech" theory, arguing that central banks releasing forward policy signals in advance would confine policymakers to fixed statements and reduce decision-making flexibility.

He also emphasized that excessively following the frequent release of policy views based on high-frequency economic data will only exacerbate market confusion and disrupt the normal pace of policy analysis.

Based on this philosophy, Warsh has long maintained policy silence, rarely expressing clear positions on interest rates, inflation, and employment in public. Even at his first press conference after taking office, he deliberately avoided employment, a core policy indicator.

Faced with the market's urgent need for policy signals and widespread external skepticism, he has consistently adhered to his own strategy, believing that the decline in market volatility, yields, and inflation expectations is sufficient to prove that the current unguided model has not caused market chaos. He has also maintained a tolerant attitude towards the frequent pronouncements by officials, without making any interventions or corrections.

Officials fill vacant positions en masse: Hawkish voices dominate previous market expectations.

Warsh's deliberate omission of duties directly led to a situation where Federal Reserve officials "speak collectively and each perform their respective duties."

During the long period of silence by the Federal Reserve Chairman, nearly 30% of the regional Fed presidents and governors spoke out publicly, actively filling the policy information gap in the market and becoming the dominant force in market expectations for the time being.

Overall, the statements from Federal Reserve officials at the grassroots level have leaned towards a hawkish tone, with several key voting members continuing to signal a stance against inflation and a tendency towards tightening.

Cleveland Fed President Hammark has repeatedly warned of the risks of high inflation, stating that continued inflation would necessitate interest rate hikes; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari has even revised his policy expectations for the year, shifting from an expectation of interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year to an expectation of interest rate hikes.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller also explicitly stated that he did not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes, while only New York Fed President Williams expressed a relatively dovish and neutral view.

This unique pattern of "the chairman remaining silent while officials speak out with hawkish voices" has kept the market in a state of tight policy expectations for a long time before the non-farm payroll data is released, with expectations of interest rate hikes continuing to rise throughout the year, and market interest rate pricing constantly adjusting around hawkish statements.

Unlike the "framework guidance" model insisted on by Lagarde of the ECB, Warsh abandoned the top-level logic output and handed over the control of policy expectations to mid-level voting members and grassroots officials, forming an unusual situation of "fragmented voices and collective tone setting", which also made market policy expectations highly dependent on the verification of monthly core economic data.

June non-farm payroll data release reverses policy expectations.

The latest non-farm payroll data for June completely shattered the previous expectations dominated by hawkish statements from officials, becoming a key turning point in the Fed's policy path.

Data shows that the U.S. added only 57,000 non-farm jobs in June, significantly lower than the market expectation of 113,000. At the same time, the employment data for April and May were revised down by a total of 74,000, clearly signaling a cooling of the U.S. labor market and completely reversing the previous market consensus of a strong job market.

Even though the unemployment rate has fallen slightly to 4.2%, the weakening momentum of core employment expansion has substantially changed the policy constraints of the Federal Reserve.

Interest rate expectations have been revised significantly, and the urgency to raise interest rates has cooled considerably.

After the data was released, the market quickly resumed repricing of the Federal Reserve's policies, and interest rate expectations were significantly revised.

The market's previous pricing in a September or October rate hike probability has fallen sharply, and the timing of the rate hike has been significantly postponed to December, with expectations of an aggressive rate hike this year largely fading.

Considering Warsh's policy style, his core idea of not fixing policy paths and flexibly adapting to data is well-suited to the current cooling employment situation. Going forward, the Federal Reserve will completely move away from the stage where hawkish statements from officials dominate expectations and return to the rhythm of "data absolutely dominating policy," significantly easing the urgency of short-term interest rate hikes.

Shifting interest rate expectations are driving gold price movements, and the future outlook is becoming clearer.

The rapid cooling of interest rate expectations directly provided strong support for the rise in gold prices.

As a safe-haven asset with no interest, gold's pricing is primarily driven by the US dollar interest rate and real interest rate. Cooling expectations of a Fed rate hike and narrowing the upside potential for long-term interest rates have directly lowered the real yield on US Treasury bonds, weakening the attractiveness of dollar assets and opening up room for gold prices to rise.

Meanwhile, current US inflation remains sticky, meaning interest rates will continue to remain high, but inflation expectations are falling rapidly. Weak employment data coupled with high interest rates further increases the likelihood of gold trading betting on interest rate cuts.

With the Warsh policy remaining silent and the Fed's short-term tightening cycle temporarily slowing, market interest rates are more likely to ease than tighten. Gold prices will continue to benefit from the support of easing expectations, and the overall upward trend will continue.