A terrifying night in the Strait of Hormuz: Iranian missiles severely damaged two merchant ships, US crude oil surged 1%, and gold prices briefly fell below $4130.
2026-07-07 10:25:48
According to Axios, citing two U.S. officials, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening (July 6). U.S. officials stated that two merchant ships were hit and severely damaged, but there were no casualties. U.S. Central Command has not yet immediately responded to requests for comment.
The UK Maritime Trade Action Group (UKMTO) confirmed earlier on Tuesday (July 7) that an oil tanker was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile and caught fire while sailing south about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman. There are no reports of injuries or environmental impact at this time.
The Wall Street Journal reported that among the attacked vessels was the "Al Rekayyat," a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier owned and managed by Nakilat QGTS.QA, the shipping arm of Qatar's LNG industry. The ship was hit on the top of its port engine room, which caught fire and filled with thick smoke. All crew members are safe and have assembled on the starboard side. At the time of the attack, the ship was in the Gulf of Oman, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.
The international crude oil market reacted swiftly to news of the attack. US crude oil prices rose as much as 1% to $69.27 per barrel.
This geopolitical event has, to some extent, offset expectations of increased supply due to Saudi Arabia's significant price cuts and OPEC+ production increases. Saudi Aramco has lowered its official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers by $11 per barrel in August, to a discount of $1.50 to the regional benchmark, the largest reduction since 2000. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided last weekend to raise its August production target, further reinforcing market expectations of more crude oil returning to China. The tug-of-war between escalating risks in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased supply has become the core contradiction in the current crude oil market pricing.
In the precious metals market, spot gold fluctuated and weakened, falling as much as 0.9% to $4,125.29 per ounce before recovering slightly to around $4,140 per ounce. Analysts pointed out that geopolitical risk premiums have not completely subsided, but a stronger dollar and market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike continue to put downward pressure on gold prices.
This missile attack occurred against the backdrop of heightened tensions between the US and Iran. Previously, despite the conflict sparked by the US-Israel strikes, the two sides had reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement aimed at creating diplomatic space. On September 17th, the US and Iran officially released a remotely signed memorandum of understanding, pledging to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days. The memorandum specified the timeline for the US to lift its maritime blockade and for Iran to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the indirect talks between the US and Iran that concluded last week showed no public signs of progress toward lasting peace. The Doha talks on July 1st were downgraded from the anticipated face-to-face negotiations to indirect talks, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Al Jazeera noted that there were no indications of progress being made towards achieving lasting peace.
At the operational level, friction between the two sides continued unabated. On June 25, an Iranian drone attacked a cargo ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz; on June 26 and 27, US airstrikes targeted Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar bases; on June 28, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have destroyed eight US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain using missiles and drones. Within just a few days, the promise in the memorandum to "immediately and permanently cease hostilities on all fronts" became virtually meaningless.
President Trump reiterated his threat of military action last Monday, stating that the United States must either reach a deal with Iran or "finish this quickly." Trump claimed, "We can destroy their bridges in an hour, and we can destroy their power supply for a small part of an afternoon." This statement came as Iran adopted a tough stance following the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Mohammad Bagher Zorqader, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, responded by calling Trump's threats "delusional," emphasizing that "Iranians are not familiar with the language of threats."
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy route, handles approximately 35% of global crude oil trade and 20% of global crude oil supply. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of the US-Iran negotiations on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while also tracking the recovery of oil exports from the Gulf region.
From the supply side, with the gradual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, oil exports from the Gulf region rebounded significantly in June. According to Kpler data, total crude oil and condensate exports from the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran increased by more than 3.5 million barrels per day compared to May, reaching 10.07 million barrels per day. A recent report from Citigroup points out that with the gradual resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the high probability of the continuation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, geopolitical risk premiums are fading, and the oil market is once again dominated by weak fundamentals. Brent crude is expected to fall to $60-65 per barrel by the end of the year.
However, this missile attack serves as a reminder to the market that the security situation remains far from optimistic. Some analysts point out that Iran is attempting to drag negotiations out until the US midterm elections in November in hopes of reaching a more favorable agreement. Given the continued erosion of mutual trust and the irreconcilable differences on core concerns, whether a substantial breakthrough can be achieved within the 60-day ceasefire window remains a huge question mark for both sides.
The missile attack in the Strait of Hormuz once again demonstrates the persistent nature of geopolitical risks in the region. Despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding and the opening of a 60-day negotiation window by the US and Iran, the lack of mutual trust and conflicting core interests have made the ceasefire agreement exceptionally fragile. From a market perspective, crude oil prices have been fluctuating between expectations of supply returning to normalcy and geopolitical risk premiums, making short-term volatility unavoidable. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, has failed to fully benefit from escalating geopolitical risks due to the dual pressures of a stronger dollar and expectations of interest rate hikes. Investors should be wary of the risk of further military escalation that could be triggered by a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, and should also pay attention to the substantial impact of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy supply. In the current context of "fighting while negotiating," geopolitical uncertainty will continue to be a significant variable in the pricing of energy and commodity markets.
Question 1: Why did Iran choose to launch a missile attack during the ceasefire negotiations?
A: This attack occurred within the 60-day ceasefire window between the US and Iran, but the two sides had already clashed multiple times before. Since late June, a series of incidents have occurred, including Iranian drone attacks on merchant ships, US airstrikes on Iranian facilities, and Iranian retaliatory strikes against US bases. Analysts believe that Iran is attempting to strengthen its negotiating leverage by demonstrating control over the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously dragging the negotiations into the US midterm elections in November, hoping to obtain more favorable terms for an agreement. Furthermore, the surge in nationalist sentiment within Iran during the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei also reflects domestic political considerations in this hardline stance.
Question 2: How important is the Strait of Hormuz to the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy chokepoint, handling approximately 35% of global crude oil trade and 20% of global crude oil supply, with 90% of that going to the Asian market. Before the conflict, the strait carried over 20 million barrels of crude oil daily. Following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in February of this year, navigation through the strait nearly came to a standstill, causing one of the most severe supply disruptions in global history.
Question 3: What impact did this attack have on oil prices?
A: Following news of the attack, WTI crude oil prices initially rose 1% to $69.27 per barrel. However, the gains subsequently narrowed, with WTI crude oil closing at $68.82 per barrel. The market is simultaneously facing expectations of supply easing due to Saudi Arabia's significant price cuts and increased OPEC+ production, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting fundamental pressures. Citigroup predicts that Brent crude oil may fall to $60 to $65 by the end of the year.
Question 4: What is the current progress of the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran?
A: The 60-day ceasefire agreement stemmed from a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by both sides on June 17, promising to reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days. However, the Doha talks on July 1 were downgraded from face-to-face to indirect talks. Since late June, military clashes between the two sides have continued, severely eroding mutual trust. The negotiations that concluded last week showed no substantial progress, and the ceasefire has been described by commentators as a "pause in fighting, a prelude to regroup for further conflict."
Question 5: Why did gold not rise sharply due to safe-haven demand?
A: Although escalating geopolitical risks are theoretically beneficial for gold, spot gold actually fell by 0.9% to $4125.29 per ounce at one point. The main reasons are: a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers; market expectations of a Fed rate hike continue to suppress the performance of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset; furthermore, gold has already experienced a complete cycle in the first half of the year: "high geopolitical premium → inflationary backlash → suppression by rate hike expectations." Short-term geopolitical events are unlikely to reverse the downward pressure on gold prices from the macroeconomic interest rate environment.
At 10:24 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,143.31 per ounce.
The UK Maritime Trade Action Group (UKMTO) confirmed earlier on Tuesday (July 7) that an oil tanker was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile and caught fire while sailing south about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman. There are no reports of injuries or environmental impact at this time.
The Wall Street Journal reported that among the attacked vessels was the "Al Rekayyat," a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier owned and managed by Nakilat QGTS.QA, the shipping arm of Qatar's LNG industry. The ship was hit on the top of its port engine room, which caught fire and filled with thick smoke. All crew members are safe and have assembled on the starboard side. At the time of the attack, the ship was in the Gulf of Oman, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.
Financial market reaction: Crude oil rose slightly, while gold came under downward pressure.
The international crude oil market reacted swiftly to news of the attack. US crude oil prices rose as much as 1% to $69.27 per barrel.
This geopolitical event has, to some extent, offset expectations of increased supply due to Saudi Arabia's significant price cuts and OPEC+ production increases. Saudi Aramco has lowered its official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers by $11 per barrel in August, to a discount of $1.50 to the regional benchmark, the largest reduction since 2000. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided last weekend to raise its August production target, further reinforcing market expectations of more crude oil returning to China. The tug-of-war between escalating risks in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of increased supply has become the core contradiction in the current crude oil market pricing.
In the precious metals market, spot gold fluctuated and weakened, falling as much as 0.9% to $4,125.29 per ounce before recovering slightly to around $4,140 per ounce. Analysts pointed out that geopolitical risk premiums have not completely subsided, but a stronger dollar and market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike continue to put downward pressure on gold prices.
Background Analysis: The Fragile Balance Under the 60-Day Ceasefire Window
This missile attack occurred against the backdrop of heightened tensions between the US and Iran. Previously, despite the conflict sparked by the US-Israel strikes, the two sides had reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement aimed at creating diplomatic space. On September 17th, the US and Iran officially released a remotely signed memorandum of understanding, pledging to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days. The memorandum specified the timeline for the US to lift its maritime blockade and for Iran to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the indirect talks between the US and Iran that concluded last week showed no public signs of progress toward lasting peace. The Doha talks on July 1st were downgraded from the anticipated face-to-face negotiations to indirect talks, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Al Jazeera noted that there were no indications of progress being made towards achieving lasting peace.
At the operational level, friction between the two sides continued unabated. On June 25, an Iranian drone attacked a cargo ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz; on June 26 and 27, US airstrikes targeted Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar bases; on June 28, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have destroyed eight US military infrastructure sites in Kuwait and Bahrain using missiles and drones. Within just a few days, the promise in the memorandum to "immediately and permanently cease hostilities on all fronts" became virtually meaningless.
President Trump reiterated his threat of military action last Monday, stating that the United States must either reach a deal with Iran or "finish this quickly." Trump claimed, "We can destroy their bridges in an hour, and we can destroy their power supply for a small part of an afternoon." This statement came as Iran adopted a tough stance following the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Mohammad Bagher Zorqader, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, responded by calling Trump's threats "delusional," emphasizing that "Iranians are not familiar with the language of threats."
Market Outlook: The Struggle Between Geopolitical Risk Premiums and Supply Reversion
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy route, handles approximately 35% of global crude oil trade and 20% of global crude oil supply. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of the US-Iran negotiations on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while also tracking the recovery of oil exports from the Gulf region.
From the supply side, with the gradual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, oil exports from the Gulf region rebounded significantly in June. According to Kpler data, total crude oil and condensate exports from the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran increased by more than 3.5 million barrels per day compared to May, reaching 10.07 million barrels per day. A recent report from Citigroup points out that with the gradual resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the high probability of the continuation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, geopolitical risk premiums are fading, and the oil market is once again dominated by weak fundamentals. Brent crude is expected to fall to $60-65 per barrel by the end of the year.
However, this missile attack serves as a reminder to the market that the security situation remains far from optimistic. Some analysts point out that Iran is attempting to drag negotiations out until the US midterm elections in November in hopes of reaching a more favorable agreement. Given the continued erosion of mutual trust and the irreconcilable differences on core concerns, whether a substantial breakthrough can be achieved within the 60-day ceasefire window remains a huge question mark for both sides.
Editor's Summary
The missile attack in the Strait of Hormuz once again demonstrates the persistent nature of geopolitical risks in the region. Despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding and the opening of a 60-day negotiation window by the US and Iran, the lack of mutual trust and conflicting core interests have made the ceasefire agreement exceptionally fragile. From a market perspective, crude oil prices have been fluctuating between expectations of supply returning to normalcy and geopolitical risk premiums, making short-term volatility unavoidable. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, has failed to fully benefit from escalating geopolitical risks due to the dual pressures of a stronger dollar and expectations of interest rate hikes. Investors should be wary of the risk of further military escalation that could be triggered by a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, and should also pay attention to the substantial impact of the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy supply. In the current context of "fighting while negotiating," geopolitical uncertainty will continue to be a significant variable in the pricing of energy and commodity markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: Why did Iran choose to launch a missile attack during the ceasefire negotiations?
A: This attack occurred within the 60-day ceasefire window between the US and Iran, but the two sides had already clashed multiple times before. Since late June, a series of incidents have occurred, including Iranian drone attacks on merchant ships, US airstrikes on Iranian facilities, and Iranian retaliatory strikes against US bases. Analysts believe that Iran is attempting to strengthen its negotiating leverage by demonstrating control over the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously dragging the negotiations into the US midterm elections in November, hoping to obtain more favorable terms for an agreement. Furthermore, the surge in nationalist sentiment within Iran during the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei also reflects domestic political considerations in this hardline stance.
Question 2: How important is the Strait of Hormuz to the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy chokepoint, handling approximately 35% of global crude oil trade and 20% of global crude oil supply, with 90% of that going to the Asian market. Before the conflict, the strait carried over 20 million barrels of crude oil daily. Following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in February of this year, navigation through the strait nearly came to a standstill, causing one of the most severe supply disruptions in global history.
Question 3: What impact did this attack have on oil prices?
A: Following news of the attack, WTI crude oil prices initially rose 1% to $69.27 per barrel. However, the gains subsequently narrowed, with WTI crude oil closing at $68.82 per barrel. The market is simultaneously facing expectations of supply easing due to Saudi Arabia's significant price cuts and increased OPEC+ production, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting fundamental pressures. Citigroup predicts that Brent crude oil may fall to $60 to $65 by the end of the year.
Question 4: What is the current progress of the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran?
A: The 60-day ceasefire agreement stemmed from a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by both sides on June 17, promising to reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days. However, the Doha talks on July 1 were downgraded from face-to-face to indirect talks. Since late June, military clashes between the two sides have continued, severely eroding mutual trust. The negotiations that concluded last week showed no substantial progress, and the ceasefire has been described by commentators as a "pause in fighting, a prelude to regroup for further conflict."
Question 5: Why did gold not rise sharply due to safe-haven demand?
A: Although escalating geopolitical risks are theoretically beneficial for gold, spot gold actually fell by 0.9% to $4125.29 per ounce at one point. The main reasons are: a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers; market expectations of a Fed rate hike continue to suppress the performance of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset; furthermore, gold has already experienced a complete cycle in the first half of the year: "high geopolitical premium → inflationary backlash → suppression by rate hike expectations." Short-term geopolitical events are unlikely to reverse the downward pressure on gold prices from the macroeconomic interest rate environment.
At 10:24 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,143.31 per ounce.
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