Crude Oil Trading Alert: With the renewed escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, is the oil bulls back in force?
2026-07-09 10:00:27
International oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday. WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw profit-taking after hitting a near two-week high of around $75.75 per barrel in the previous session, and is currently consolidating above $74 per barrel , up about 0.8% on the day. However, amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, concerns about disruptions to global oil supply remain strong, and oil prices are generally maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern.
The latest developments indicate that the United States has launched a new round of military strikes against targets within Iran in response to Iran's earlier military action against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran subsequently retaliated, striking approximately 85 U.S. military facilities and related targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, US President Trump stated that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, previously aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East, had expired, meaning the window for diplomatic reconciliation between the two sides had further narrowed. As the conflict between the two sides continued to escalate, the market quickly re-priced in geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices for two consecutive trading days.
Meanwhile, the United States announced the cancellation of key waivers that previously allowed some Iranian crude oil to enter the international market, further tightening Iran's oil export channels. Iranian security officials stated that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz again in response to the latest US military action, and indicated that Iran will implement larger-scale countermeasures for every future US attack on an Iranian target.
Since the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport, any further disruption to shipping could trigger new shocks to the global energy supply chain. Therefore, despite OPEC+'s previous decision to continue increasing production targets, the market generally believes that the increased supply will be insufficient to fully offset the supply risks posed by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term, and geopolitical factors remain the core driver of current oil price movements.
On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released inventory data for the week ending July 3, showing that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.998 million barrels , ending a previous 10-week decline and significantly exceeding market expectations. This reflects a slowdown in refinery purchasing and puts some downward pressure on oil prices.
However, judging from market performance, inventory data has not become a key focus of trading. Currently, investors are more concerned about whether the conflict between the US and Iran will escalate further, and whether future shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will face new restrictions. Therefore, the negative impact of inventory data has been significantly weakened, and international oil prices continue to receive strong support.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has maintained its position above major moving averages after two consecutive days of significant gains, indicating that the overall upward trend remains intact. The MACD maintains a golden cross structure, and the momentum bars continue to expand , suggesting that the bulls still hold the upper hand in the medium term. However, as oil prices approach previous resistance levels, some profit-taking pressure may arise in the short term. A break above the resistance near $75.80 could lead to a further challenge of the $77.20 area; key support levels to watch are $73.20 and $71.80 .
From a 4-hour chart perspective, WTI crude oil maintains a slightly bullish trend, with prices trading above short-term moving averages. The MACD remains above the zero line , but the red momentum bars have narrowed, indicating that short-term upward momentum is beginning to slow. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further and pushes oil prices above $75.80 , bulls may continue to push towards the $77.00-$77.50 area. If market risk aversion cools and oil prices fall below $73.20 , they may retest support near $72.00 , but the overall pullback is expected to be relatively limited.
Editor's Summary : The escalating conflict between the US and Iran has once again become the most important pricing factor in the international crude oil market. The potential supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up geopolitical premiums, temporarily relegating the negative impacts of increased inventories and the OPEC+ production increase plan to a secondary position. In the short term, international oil price trends will remain highly dependent on the development of the Middle East situation. If the conflict escalates further or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted again, WTI crude oil is expected to maintain its strength; conversely, if the situation eases, inventory pressure and expectations of increased supply may once again dominate the market, potentially leading to greater price volatility. Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the Middle East, changes in US inventory data, and global crude oil supply dynamics.
The latest developments indicate that the United States has launched a new round of military strikes against targets within Iran in response to Iran's earlier military action against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran subsequently retaliated, striking approximately 85 U.S. military facilities and related targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, US President Trump stated that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, previously aimed at easing tensions in the Middle East, had expired, meaning the window for diplomatic reconciliation between the two sides had further narrowed. As the conflict between the two sides continued to escalate, the market quickly re-priced in geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices for two consecutive trading days.
Meanwhile, the United States announced the cancellation of key waivers that previously allowed some Iranian crude oil to enter the international market, further tightening Iran's oil export channels. Iranian security officials stated that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz again in response to the latest US military action, and indicated that Iran will implement larger-scale countermeasures for every future US attack on an Iranian target.
Since the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport, any further disruption to shipping could trigger new shocks to the global energy supply chain. Therefore, despite OPEC+'s previous decision to continue increasing production targets, the market generally believes that the increased supply will be insufficient to fully offset the supply risks posed by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the short term, and geopolitical factors remain the core driver of current oil price movements.
On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released inventory data for the week ending July 3, showing that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.998 million barrels , ending a previous 10-week decline and significantly exceeding market expectations. This reflects a slowdown in refinery purchasing and puts some downward pressure on oil prices.
However, judging from market performance, inventory data has not become a key focus of trading. Currently, investors are more concerned about whether the conflict between the US and Iran will escalate further, and whether future shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will face new restrictions. Therefore, the negative impact of inventory data has been significantly weakened, and international oil prices continue to receive strong support.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has maintained its position above major moving averages after two consecutive days of significant gains, indicating that the overall upward trend remains intact. The MACD maintains a golden cross structure, and the momentum bars continue to expand , suggesting that the bulls still hold the upper hand in the medium term. However, as oil prices approach previous resistance levels, some profit-taking pressure may arise in the short term. A break above the resistance near $75.80 could lead to a further challenge of the $77.20 area; key support levels to watch are $73.20 and $71.80 .
From a 4-hour chart perspective, WTI crude oil maintains a slightly bullish trend, with prices trading above short-term moving averages. The MACD remains above the zero line , but the red momentum bars have narrowed, indicating that short-term upward momentum is beginning to slow. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates further and pushes oil prices above $75.80 , bulls may continue to push towards the $77.00-$77.50 area. If market risk aversion cools and oil prices fall below $73.20 , they may retest support near $72.00 , but the overall pullback is expected to be relatively limited.
Editor's Summary : The escalating conflict between the US and Iran has once again become the most important pricing factor in the international crude oil market. The potential supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up geopolitical premiums, temporarily relegating the negative impacts of increased inventories and the OPEC+ production increase plan to a secondary position. In the short term, international oil price trends will remain highly dependent on the development of the Middle East situation. If the conflict escalates further or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted again, WTI crude oil is expected to maintain its strength; conversely, if the situation eases, inventory pressure and expectations of increased supply may once again dominate the market, potentially leading to greater price volatility. Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the Middle East, changes in US inventory data, and global crude oil supply dynamics.
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