The global bond market is facing a new round of supply pressure. In its latest strategy report, Deutsche Bank points out that as fiscal deficits remain high in major economies such as the US, UK, Eurozone, and Japan, governments are continuously expanding bond issuance, leading to a sustained increase in the supply of freely traded government bonds globally. Against this backdrop, the institution maintains its bearish stance on US Treasury bonds with longer durations. Deutsche Bank believes that increased bond supply is becoming a significant factor influencing long-term interest rate trends. In recent years, the market has primarily focused on changes in central bank monetary policy, but the core factor affecting long-term yields is gradually shifting towards fiscal financing needs. As government financing in major economies expands, investors require higher yields as compensation for holding long-term bonds, thus driving up term premiums. According to Deutsche Bank's forecast, by the end of this year, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is expected to rise to 4.80% , higher than current market levels; meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is expected to rise to 4.30% . This implies that the US Treasury yield curve will exhibit a moderate steepening, meaning that long-term yields will rise more than short-term yields. Market participants point out that a steepening yield curve typically reflects increasing investor concerns about future fiscal pressures, inflation risks, and increased bond supply. Especially against the backdrop of continuously rising debt levels in major global economies, long-term bonds face greater valuation pressure. For financial markets, the continued rise in US Treasury yields could have broad implications. On the one hand, higher long-term interest rates will increase financing costs for businesses and residents, constraining economic growth. On the other hand, as a key benchmark for global asset pricing, rising US Treasury yields may attract international capital flows to dollar assets, putting pressure on global stock markets and risk assets. The gold market is also under scrutiny. If the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to approach 4.80%, real yields are expected to rise accordingly, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and suppressing gold prices. Furthermore, rising US Treasury yields are often accompanied by increased attractiveness of dollar assets, which may also put additional pressure on the precious metals market. In the foreign exchange market, if US long-term yields maintain a relative advantage, the dollar index is expected to receive some support. Especially given the uncertainty surrounding the growth prospects of economies such as Europe and Japan, rising US Treasury yields may further widen the interest rate differential with other major economies, thereby driving capital inflows into dollar assets. From a technical perspective, the daily chart for the 10-year US Treasury yield still maintains an upward trend, with prices trading above major moving averages, indicating a bullish medium-term trend. Momentum indicators suggest that bullish forces remain dominant. If yields break through recent highs, the market may further test the 4.80% target. Key support levels to watch are 4.50% and 4.35% . As long as prices remain above these key support levels, the medium- to long-term upward trend is expected to remain intact. Editor's Summary: Deutsche Bank remains bearish on US Treasury duration assets, reflecting growing market concerns about global government debt expansion and increased bond supply. As the US, UK, Eurozone, and Japan continue to expand their financing, long-term bond term premiums face further upward pressure. If Deutsche Bank's forecast of a 4.80% rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield materializes, it will not only affect global bond market valuations but could also have a ripple effect on gold, equity assets, and the foreign exchange market. Going forward, investors should focus on the US fiscal situation, inflation trends, and policy changes by major central banks, as these factors will collectively determine the direction of the global interest rate market.