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[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels Amidst Raw Material Supply Disruptions and Macroeconomic Expectations] ⑴ Steel: Exports remained resilient, investment continued to be weak in June, and the market had some expectations for the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, leading to some improvement in demand expectations. Both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts decreased significantly, with short positions decreasing more; both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts decreased, with long positions decreasing slightly more, and overall funds continued to flow out. Technically, the rebar futures contract rebounded after a reduction in open interest, with the 40-day moving average acting as resistance above and the support level moving up to around 3085 yuan/ton below. In terms of valuation, steel mill profits continued to be under pressure, with the futures price approaching the off-peak electricity cost of electric arc furnaces in East China, and the previous undervaluation has been somewhat corrected. Supply disruptions on the raw material side raised expectations of cost support, and the market awaited positive macroeconomic news, but the weak reality still limited the rebound potential. ⑵ Iron Ore: The failure of labor negotiations between BHP and management limited delivery of some FMG products, coupled with the seasonal decline in shipments after the June fiscal year's sales push, provided some support to the futures market in the short term due to supply disruptions. The September contract continued its rebound after a reduction in open interest, with the upper resistance level shifting to around 770 yuan/ton, while the lower support level remains around 750 yuan/ton. Both long and short positions decreased among the top 20 holders, with a larger reduction in short positions, indicating a weakening willingness to actively suppress prices. Supply disruptions have not completely subsided, but given the overall decline in demand, the upward momentum of the market is expected to be limited. (3) Coking Coal: Safety inspections at production sites remain stringent, and the pace of production resumption in Shanxi coal mines is slow; pig iron production has fallen from its highs, coupled with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions. Downstream buyers are maintaining just-in-time purchases, and intermediaries are gradually lowering prices to move inventory. Short-term coal prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The top 20 holders for the September contract increased long positions and decreased short positions, with a generally bullish change in open interest. Technically, the September coking coal contract rebounded after an increase in open interest and a decline, with the upper resistance level around 1290-1300 yuan/ton and the lower support level shifting to 1253-1260 yuan/ton. The renewed conflict between the US and Iran has driven up crude oil prices, and the energy premium sentiment has provided some support to the market. The market is caught in a tug-of-war between supply contraction and weak demand, with limited upside and downside potential. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy based on support levels. (4) Coking Coal: Coal prices continue to weaken, coking plant profits have slightly recovered, and output is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pig iron production has been confirmed to have peaked, and further declines are expected, with demand-driven forces gradually weakening. The futures main contract is trading at a significant discount to the spot price, and valuations are relatively low. Steel mill losses continue to widen, making the implementation of the tenth round of price increases significantly more difficult, and expectations of price reductions are rising, leading to an overall downward shift in market valuations. However, the basis has already largely priced in the expectation of spot price reductions, so further downside potential for futures may be relatively limited. (5) Manganese Silicon: The fundamentals remain weak and stable. Manganese ore port inventories continue to accumulate, demand is weak, plant operating rates remain low, and plant inventories are increasing, driving the overall market downward. The September contract failed to break through the 40-day moving average. The support level to watch is the 20-day moving average, while the resistance level to watch is around 5940. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders have decreased, with the reduction in positions being quite significant.