A recent research report from Morgan Stanley predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain current interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week. Following its latest rate hike in June, the ECB is now more inclined to observe the impact of previous policy tightening on the economy and inflation before deciding on its next policy direction. Analysts point out that a series of economic data released since the June policy meeting have not significantly changed the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy stance. Currently, the Eurozone economy remains between a relatively moderate growth scenario and the ECB's baseline scenario, with limited momentum for economic recovery and no clear trend in inflation. Economic data is insufficient to support an immediate adjustment to the ECB's policy stance, and maintaining stable interest rates remains the prevailing market expectation. Meanwhile, recent public statements by the ECB President and several Governing Council members have maintained a cautious tone, largely consistent with market expectations. Policymakers have generally emphasized that future monetary policy will still depend on changes in economic data, without making any pre-emptive commitments to future policy paths. This means the ECB wants to retain sufficient policy flexibility to cope with potential future changes. One of the key variables influencing the ECB's policy decisions remains energy prices. Recent tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant rise in international oil prices, increasing market concerns about the stability of future energy supplies. Volatility in energy prices could not only push up inflation again but also increase uncertainty about future price trends. Increased volatility in international oil prices presents the ECB with greater uncertainty in assessing future inflation prospects, which is one of the important reasons for its tendency to remain on the sidelines. If energy prices continue to rise, the pace of inflation decline in the Eurozone may slow, and the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain its current high interest rates for a longer period. However, if energy prices fall again while economic growth remains weak, the policy focus may gradually shift towards supporting economic recovery. Market participants believe that energy prices alone are enough to prompt the ECB to avoid releasing overly explicit policy signals in its policy statements and press conferences. Rather than directly hinting at future rate hikes or cuts, the ECB is more likely to continue emphasizing the data-dependent principle, gradually adjusting its policy based on future inflation, employment, and economic growth data. For financial markets, the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates has been largely priced in; therefore, investors are more focused on the wording of the policy statement and the ECB president's latest assessment of the future economic, inflation, and interest rate outlook. If the statements are hawkish, the euro may receive some support; if the wording is cautious or even expresses economic concerns, the euro may face some pressure in the short term. From a daily chart perspective, the euro/dollar exchange rate has recently stabilized above 1.1450, maintaining an overall oscillating but slightly bullish pattern. The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum still dominates, and the 60-day moving average continues to rise, providing support for the exchange rate. Key resistance levels to watch are 1.1500, 1.1550, and 1.1600; key support levels are 1.1420, 1.1380, and 1.1320. A break below 1.1420 could trigger a period of consolidation. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend, with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment. The RSI is in strong territory but near overbought levels, suggesting some short-term consolidation is possible. If the ECB maintains a cautious stance and US economic data continues to weaken, the exchange rate could break through 1.1500; if the ECB releases dovish signals, it may retrace to support around 1.1420 before finding a new direction. Editor's Summary: Morgan Stanley expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates unchanged next week, largely in line with current market consensus. Faced with uncertainty stemming from slowing economic growth, declining inflation, and volatile energy prices, the ECB is more likely to continue its wait-and-see approach, awaiting further economic data to confirm its future policy direction. The future trajectory of the euro will depend not only on ECB policy signals but also on the combined influence of international energy prices, US monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. If continued energy price increases lead to renewed inflationary pressure, the ECB may extend its high interest rate policy; conversely, if economic growth continues to slow, the policy focus may gradually shift towards supporting economic recovery. Investors should pay close attention to the latest policy signals released in next week's ECB meeting statement and press conference.