Spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its pullback during Thursday's European trading session, falling to around $57, a drop of about 1.3% on the day. Recent pressure on silver has been primarily driven by rising energy prices and renewed global inflation expectations, with investors concerned that major central banks may maintain a tight monetary environment, thereby diminishing the precious metal's appeal. Because silver possesses both precious metal and industrial attributes, its price is influenced not only by the US dollar and interest rates but also by changes in global economic expectations. Recent escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has driven up international energy prices, prompting the market to reassess future inflation trends. Rising energy costs could lead to a renewed surge in global inflation expectations and increase the likelihood of central banks maintaining tight monetary policies, putting pressure on silver, a non-yielding asset. The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant factor influencing the market. US President Trump stated that if Iran does not resume negotiations, the US may further expand its strikes against Iranian infrastructure. Market concerns that the escalating situation could affect energy supply stability and increase global inflationary pressures through oil prices are prevalent. However, silver's decline has been somewhat limited due to continued improvement in US inflation data. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both showed easing price pressures, thus reducing market bets on further near-term interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Market data shows that the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting has significantly decreased, currently around 10.2%, down from approximately 31% a week ago. The rapid cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike has reduced the downward pressure on the precious metals market from the dollar and real interest rates. The silver market is currently caught in a tug-of-war between two factors. On the one hand, rising energy prices and renewed inflation risks have limited market expectations for monetary easing; on the other hand, cooling US inflation has driven adjustments in interest rate expectations, providing a floor for silver. Furthermore, the dollar's performance is also a significant factor influencing silver. The dollar index has recently fallen to a near four-week low, which theoretically benefits dollar-denominated precious metals. However, due to the market's increased focus on inflation risks from energy prices, silver remains under selling pressure in the short term. Investors will now focus on speeches by Federal Reserve officials, US economic data, and developments in the Middle East. If inflation continues to improve, the market may further lower interest rate expectations, driving a silver rebound; however, if energy prices continue to rise, the market will re-indulge in high interest rate risks, and silver may continue to face downward pressure. From a daily chart perspective, spot silver has recently retreated from its highs and is currently trading around $57, indicating a weak short-term trend. Currently, silver prices are about $60.75 below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating significant upward pressure and limiting any rebound. The MACD indicator shows signs of weakening, and the RSI indicator is around 35.98, in the weak zone but not yet severely oversold, suggesting that selling pressure remains. The key resistance level to watch is $60.75. If silver prices regain and hold above this level, they may further challenge the resistance around $61.37, followed by the $67.17 area. On the downside, the key support level is $55.63. A break below this level could lead to a further test of the psychological level of $50.00. Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver prices are maintaining a downward channel, with short-term moving averages continuing to suppress price rebounds, indicating a bearish bias. The RSI indicator is running at low levels, showing insufficient short-term buying pressure, but also suggesting that prices are approaching a short-term support zone. If silver prices fail to break through the $59.50 to $60.00 range, they may continue to fall back in the short term to test the $55.60 support level. If geopolitical risks ease and the dollar continues to weaken, silver may see a technical rebound and retest the resistance level near $60.75. Editor's Summary: The recent decline in silver prices was mainly driven by inflation concerns stemming from rising energy prices. The market is reassessing the likelihood of global central banks maintaining tight monetary policies, putting pressure on non-yielding assets. However, the continued cooling of US CPI and PPI, along with a significant decrease in expectations of a Fed rate hike, has provided some support for silver. In the short term, silver's performance still depends on the shift between inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. If energy prices continue to push up inflation risks, silver prices may continue to be under pressure; however, if US economic data weakens further and expectations of a Fed policy shift strengthen, silver still has the potential for a rebound. Investors should pay close attention to the breakout of the $60.75 resistance level and the $55.60 support level to determine the direction of the next trend.