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2026-07-16 18:20:13
[US Treasury Yields Stand Out, Global Yield Spreads Reveal Capital Migration] ⑴ The US 2-year Treasury yield is 4.166%, more than 100 basis points higher than the average of major developed countries. Only Australia leads slightly with a positive spread of 34 basis points, followed closely by the UK at 17.9 basis points. ⑵ The yield spread between the 2-year Treasury yields of Eurozone countries and the US is generally between 120 and 180 basis points, with Denmark at -164 basis points, Sweden at -178 basis points, and Germany at -140 basis points. ⑶ Japan's 2-year yield is only 1.439%, with a spread of -272.7 basis points compared to the US, the largest gap among all comparable countries, reflecting the continued impact of its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. (4) Regarding 10-year maturities, the US yield was 4.577%, while Australia maintained its leading position with a positive spread of 32.6 basis points, and the UK's positive spread widened to 39.2 basis points, indicating that the interest rate paths of Anglo-Saxon economies are becoming more synchronized. (5) The Eurozone's 10-year yield spread narrowed significantly compared to the 2-year spread, with France and Italy both at approximately -63 basis points, and Germany at -140 basis points, indicating that the pricing of future interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in the long term is relatively restrained. (6) The Japanese 10-year yield rose to 2.715%, still 186 basis points inverted with the US yield, but significantly narrowed compared to the 273 basis points at the short end, highlighting that expectations of monetary policy normalization are gradually taking hold in long-term interest rates. (7) The current interest rate differential structure means that dollar assets continue to be more attractive to international capital, but historical experience shows that extreme interest rate differentials are often accompanied by increased exchange rate volatility, and the pressure of global asset allocation rebalancing cannot be ignored.
