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[Refining Bottlenecks Become a Major Weakness for Oil Prices; Gasoline Fever Remains Unabated, Trump's Efforts Unable to Relieve It] ⑴ Despite the ongoing conflict with Iran, the price of benchmark crude oil in the United States has only risen by about 20% compared to pre-war levels, but gasoline prices have surged by over 30%, with crack spreads reaching a four-year high, indicating that the relative calm in the crude oil market has not translated into end-consumer demand. ⑵ The buffer in the crude oil market mainly comes from the large-scale release of global strategic reserves, but these measures are almost ineffective in the refined oil sector because the reserves are primarily released in crude oil rather than fuel. ⑶ Global refining capacity has suffered a double blow—Middle Eastern refineries are hampered by blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged facilities, while over a quarter of Russia's capacity has been taken offline due to drone attacks, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in global refining volume in the second quarter. ⑷ As a major supplier of seaborne diesel, Russia has implemented an export ban and has unusually shifted to importing gasoline, further distorting the regional supply and demand pattern. US refineries may reduce gasoline production driven by diesel profits unless gasoline prices rise in tandem. (5) Global gasoline inventories are below the five-year average and the deficit is expected to widen, while demand remains resilient due to price protection policies such as tax cuts and subsidies implemented by many governments. This supply-demand mismatch makes the fuel market far tighter than the crude oil market. (6) Domestic factors in the United States are also contributing to the situation. Since actual ethanol blending has reached its limit, refineries can only purchase expensive compliant quotas, significantly increasing the implied cost per gallon of gasoline. (7) Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the slower recovery of refining capacity compared to oil fields, the smaller size of fuel transport vessels leading to logistical delays, and the lack of strategic reserves of refined petroleum products in the United States all mean that the easing of gasoline prices will be a long process, and the pressure on end users will be difficult to eliminate in the short term.