On Monday evening Eastern Time, the U.S. military launched a new round of strikes against Iran, marking the tenth consecutive night of military action by the U.S. US Central Command issued an operational briefing, stating that the targets of this round of airstrikes were Iranian military command centers, offshore maritime combat facilities, drone and anti-ship missile launch sites, and air defense early warning systems. The U.S. stated that the core objective of the operation was to weaken Iran's ability to continue harassing merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military also emphasized that this global energy lifeline has not been completely disrupted; since early May, with the support of the US military's escort system, approximately 900 merchant ships carrying 450 million barrels of crude oil have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the security risks in the waterway continue to rise. Early Tuesday morning, Iran launched an attack in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging a passing oil tanker, forcing the crew to abandon ship and evacuate. As a core channel for global energy trade, approximately 20% of international oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is attempting to leverage the waterway to exert bargaining power, continuously demonstrating its influence over the waterway through attacks on ships. Risk aversion in Persian Gulf shipping is rising, with several shipping companies raising war insurance rates for their routes, and some shipowners temporarily suspending the entry of ships into high-risk waters. Following the outbreak of conflict, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quickly launched a reciprocal counterattack. According to the Iranian state news agency, on July 21, the Revolutionary Guard launched a cross-border strike targeting US air defense facilities and military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, in response to the continuous US airstrikes on Iranian territory in recent days. Houthi rebels announce blockade of Saudi shipping, jeopardizing the Red Sea choke point once again . Amidst the ongoing clashes between the US and Iran, a new front has emerged in the Middle East conflict. On Monday, the Houthi rebels in Yemen officially announced an immediate threat of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. The official Houthi statement accused Saudi Arabia of continuing its "aggressive blockade" of Yemen, citing last week's Saudi-led coalition airstrike on Sana'a International Airport as justification for their maritime deterrent action. The Houthis control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and a vital gateway for Eurasian maritime trade. Previously, the Houthis had repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait should the situation escalate. Now, directly targeting Saudi shipping means that Red Sea energy transport routes face a direct impact. In response to the blockade warning, the Saudi-led Yemeni coalition quickly issued a strong statement, saying that the Houthi maritime blockade threat blatantly violates international law and that they will use force to ensure the safety of their shipping, ready to take reciprocal countermeasures at any time. The two major factions in the Gulf are now in a standoff in the Red Sea region, significantly increasing the probability of escalating localized tensions. Energy Market Experiences Dramatic Volatility: Saudi Arabia's Backup Oil Transport Under Pressure, Oil Price Upside Risks Increase Sharply The international oil market has entered a period of dramatic volatility amid multiple geopolitical risks. Initially, oil prices surged upon the release of news, but subsequent intensified competition between bulls and bears led to wide price fluctuations. As of midday, Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 1.1% to $90.20 per barrel; US WTI light sweet crude futures for August delivery also rose 1.1% to $84.13 per barrel. Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, warned that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is currently almost at a standstill, and coupled with the Houthi threat to blockade Saudi shipping, approximately 2.5 million barrels of Saudi Arabia's daily oil exports are directly exposed to risk. The Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline (the main oil pipeline), traversing the Arabian Peninsula and approximately 750 miles long, connects the eastern Abqaiq oil-producing region with the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, serving as Saudi Arabia's most important backup export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, this pipeline will become one of the few buffer options for global crude oil supply. Industry analysts predict that if the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable and shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea is also disrupted, both core energy corridors will be under pressure, and the global crude oil supply gap will widen rapidly. If diplomatic efforts fail and a ceasefire cannot be implemented, the possibility of a significant surge in oil prices increases substantially, and major crude oil-importing economies may face imported inflationary pressures. Multiple disagreements make the prospects for negotiations uncertain . As the conflict continues to escalate, regional mediators have submitted a 10-day temporary ceasefire proposal to both the US and Iran, hoping to create a diplomatic window to revive the memorandum of understanding reached last month. The market views this ceasefire proposal as an important signal of easing tensions. ING strategists believe that a short-term ceasefire is possible, providing expected support for de-escalation. However, institutions also issue a sobering reminder: achieving an effective ceasefire is by no means easy. A recent research report by ING's Warren Paterson and Eva Manhaiyi points out that the core differences between the US and Iran are deeply rooted. On Monday, Trump made a strong statement on the social media platform "Truth Social": if Iran causes casualties among US troops, Iran will pay several times the price; related instructions have been issued to commanders at all levels of the military. On one hand, the US has a clear red line for military retaliation; on the other hand, Iran insists on defending its rights in the Strait of Hormuz and continues to carry out cross-border counterattacks. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition also present independent variables. Even if the US and Iran temporarily cease fire, the Red Sea shipping lane dispute could continue to escalate. In the short term, "fighting while negotiating" may become the norm in the Middle East geopolitical landscape, and the energy market will continue to oscillate between geopolitical risks and expectations of diplomatic easing.