The struggle between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz has escalated dramatically. Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer, prompting a US strike on three Iranian oil tankers in response. Commercial shipping has become a tool for economic pressure between the two sides, with traffic in the strait falling to a near-month low. Oil prices rose, supported by supply concerns, while gold prices fell under pressure due to strong employment data and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. This series of events is reshaping the global energy market landscape and continues to influence inflation and monetary policy. I. Missile Attacks on Ships: The Strait of Hormuz Conflict Escalates from "Bombing Facilities" to "Disrupting Transportation" The military confrontation between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply over the past weekend. On September 5, the U.S. Central Command issued a statement saying that a U.S. aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer, while patrolling regional waters, were attacked by ballistic missiles fired by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. warships successfully evaded the attack, and there were no casualties. U.S. officials stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps had been continuously launching ballistic missiles at U.S. forces throughout the conflict, but this direct attack on warships was considered a major escalation. In retaliation, the U.S. military immediately struck three Iranian oil tankers. The U.S. Central Command stated that the targets were located in waters near Kharg Island in southern Iran, near the port of Jask, and an empty oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The tanker near Kharg Island was hit by four U.S. missiles, the tanker near Jask was "permanently rendered unable to navigate," and the empty tanker in the Gulf of Oman was "completely destroyed" after the crew abandoned ship. Marisks, a maritime intelligence company, confirmed that the three Iranian oil tankers attacked were Downy, Stark I, and Kylo (also known as Noxen). Iran responded swiftly. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on the same day that it had attacked three oil tankers "passing through unauthorized routes" in the Strait of Hormuz, and three vessels with ties to the United States in other waters. The Revolutionary Guard also claimed to have launched multiple ballistic missiles that struck a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer, forcing both warships to withdraw from the conflict zone after being damaged. On September 6, Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, further stated that Iran would announce a "no-go zone" in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, extending from the US naval blockade line into parts of the Persian Gulf. In its analysis report, Marisks pointed out that the September 5 attacks marked a "major escalation of maritime conflict," with commercial oil tankers being deliberately used as tools for mutual economic pressure, and the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping being significantly blurred. II. Waterway Obstruction: Daily Traffic Plummets to Lowest Level Since May As the conflict intensifies, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deteriorate. According to data from ship tracking agency Kpler, the average number of ships carrying crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 10 days has been only 10 per day, the lowest level since May. Specifically, 15 cargo ships passed through the strait on September 4, dropping to 13 on September 5, and further decreasing to 10 on September 6. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright acknowledged on September 6 that current oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are below levels seen before the U.S. military attack on Iran. The U.S. blockade is also intensifying. U.S. Central Command stated that as of last week, the U.S. military had forced 87 merchant ships to divert, rendered 3 merchant ships immobile, and boarded 2 merchant ships for inspection. The U.S. military currently escorts several ships through the Strait of Hormuz daily; these ships typically transit at night and turn off their transponders to evade tracking. In late August, Navy SEALs, with support from other forces, successfully cleared mines from the area. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil was transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's control of the strait has been a crucial bargaining chip for Tehran in the war and negotiations. Due to the US blockade, Iran's own oil exports have been blocked for weeks, while Gulf countries' oil exports continue to pass through, further increasing the pressure on the Tehran regime.

International oil prices continued their upward trend, while gold prices came under pressure and fell back, with the market focusing on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

International oil prices continued their weekend gains on Monday. WTI crude futures rose nearly 1% to $92.57 per barrel at one point, currently trading at $91.90, a gain of about 0.4%. Continued concerns about supply disruptions supported oil prices. ANZ analysts believe that a prolonged standoff between the US and Iran, accompanied by carefully planned military actions from both sides, is the most likely scenario. They expect exports to remain constrained for the remainder of 2026, only recovering to pre-war levels by the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, spot gold weakened, briefly falling below the $4,400 mark to a daily low of around $4,398.57 per ounce, currently trading around $4,410 per ounce. Last Friday's US non-farm payroll report showed a significant acceleration in job growth in August, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%, indicating an improvement in the labor market. Coupled with the weekend's attacks on oil tankers by the US and Iran, which pushed up oil prices, and rising expectations of a Fed rate hike this year, gold prices were suppressed. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting to rise to approximately 58% to 59.6%, with the probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike this year rising to around 86%. OPEC+ announced at its Sunday meeting that it would maintain its October production policy, stating that it would not adjust production measures until an agreement is reached on new quotas. Analysts point out that the ongoing war with Iran continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, severely weakening the oil-producing alliance's actual influence on oil prices; paper production adjustments are no longer sufficient to offset the actual supply disruptions caused by the battlefield blockade.

Editor's Summary

The struggle between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz has escalated from missile exchanges to direct attacks on each other's oil tankers, with commercial shipping becoming a tool for economic pressure. The US responded to the attacks by crippling Iranian oil transport capabilities while maintaining blockades and escort operations; Iran, in turn, continued attacks on vessels violating regulations and expanded its restricted zone. This situation has led to a drop in traffic volume in the strait to a near-month low, significantly increasing global oil supply risks and supporting oil prices. Meanwhile, strong US employment data and rising oil prices have reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, putting downward pressure on gold prices. OPEC+ maintaining its production levels further highlights the dominant role of geopolitical conflict in actual supply. The intensity of future conflict and the progress of restoring traffic in the strait will continue to dominate the energy market and global inflation expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did the US military choose to strike Iranian oil tankers instead of direct military installations? A: This US action clearly responds to military provocations with an economic cost. Central Command stated that Iran's launch of ballistic missiles at US warships, including aircraft carriers, constitutes a significant escalation, hence the decision to destroy three oil tankers to target its limited and exposed oil fleet. This is part of a new strategy to punish Tehran and weaken its oil transport capacity. Previously, the US military had already begun attacking Iranian oil tankers and maintained a blockade of ports. By paralyzing oil tankers near Kharg Island, Jask, and the Gulf of Oman, the US aims to impose a greater economic cost on Iran, rather than simply retaliating militarily. This move also sends a clear signal to the Revolutionary Guard: attacking US warships will directly damage its core source of revenue—oil exports. Q: How much is shipping in the Strait of Hormuz currently affected? A: The impact is extremely significant. Kpler data shows that only an average of 10 commodity ships have passed through the strait daily over the past 10 days, the lowest since May. Although the US military has cleared mines from major shipping lanes and escorts several ships daily (mostly at night with transponders off), Iran continues to attack oil tankers attempting to cross, including Saudi and Kuwaiti vessels. More than ten ships were attacked in August. Iran has also announced the establishment of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, the strait handled about one-fifth of global oil shipments; the current low traffic volume directly fuels supply concerns. The US blockade has hampered Iran's own exports for weeks, while exports from Gulf countries can still partially pass through, further exacerbating pressure on Tehran. Q: What is the underlying logic behind the rise in oil prices and the fall in gold prices? A: Oil prices are directly supported by expectations of supply disruptions. After the US and Iran attacked oil tankers over the weekend, WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% to $92.57 per barrel, remaining around $91.90 to $92.10 on Monday. The market is concerned about a prolonged blockade of the strait; ANZ Bank predicts that export restrictions may continue until the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2027. Gold prices were pressured by strong US employment data (August employment accelerated, unemployment rate remained at 4.1%) and rising oil prices reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike, briefly falling below $4,400 to $4,398.57. FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting rose to about 59%, and the probability of a rate hike this year exceeded 86%. Rising inflation and interest rate expectations have weakened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Q: What impact will OPEC+ maintaining its production level have on the market? A: OPEC+ decided on Sunday to maintain its October production policy, requiring an agreement on new quotas before adjusting measures. Analysts point out that the war in Iran has disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz, severely weakening the oil-producing alliance's actual influence on oil prices. Paper production adjustments are unlikely to offset actual supply disruptions. Previous production increases were largely symbolic, as the war has already disrupted the market. Maintaining the status quo means that it will be difficult to alleviate supply tightness in the short term through increased production, and oil prices will be driven more by geopolitical conflicts than by OPEC+ policy. The market will focus more on the progress of the Strait of Hormuz's reopening and the intensity of the conflict, rather than the outcome of traditional production meetings. Q: What might be the long-term impact of this conflict on the global energy market? A: The conflict has turned commercial tankers into tools of economic pressure, blurring the lines between military and shipping. Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial bargaining chip for Iran in both war and negotiations. If the standoff continues, export restrictions could persist until 2027, keeping global oil supplies tight, pushing up prices and impacting inflation. While the US escort and blockade strategy has alleviated some pressure, the expansion of Iranian restricted zones and ongoing attacks increase shipping risks and costs. The economies of Gulf allies have already been damaged by attacks on exports, raising concerns that Iran might respond to economic pressure with military escalation. The final outcome depends on whether both sides can return to the negotiating table or whether the conflict escalates further. The market needs to closely monitor shipping data and the next steps taken by both sides. As of 09:50 Beijing time, US crude oil was trading at $91.80 per barrel, and spot gold was trading at $4410.98 per ounce.