On Sunday, Oman's Foreign Minister announced that the Salalah meeting was postponed indefinitely, citing the need for time for all parties to reach a consensus and the inability to conclude the diplomatic negotiations as originally planned. Just the previous trading day, Saudi officials confirmed the emergency shutdown of the country's east-west oil pipeline following a series of drone attacks originating from Iraq. This pipeline, with a daily capacity of 4-5 million barrels, is Saudi Arabia's core backup route for transporting crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. In early trading, WTI crude oil rose above $102 again. The market priced in a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, and gold fell by about $77, trading around $4331. The market's earlier rebound, fueled by expectations of diplomatic easing, was quickly disproven after the news of the meeting's cancellation. Last Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $100.05, falling 2.4% on the day due to positive expectations of the meeting; this morning, the news reversed, and oil prices rebounded 2.4%, directly returning to pre-meeting levels. The diplomatic foundation upon which the previous rebound in stocks and gold relied has disappeared. Alternative oil transport routes are shut down . The Saudi East-West Pipeline has been responsible for exporting crude oil around the Strait of Hormuz since February, and no other pipeline can currently handle this volume of transport capacity. After being hit by drone attacks and damage to pipeline infrastructure, the Saudi Ministry of Energy shut down the pipeline for safety reasons. Satellite imagery recorded thick smoke in the southern section of the pipeline near Medina. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that Saudi crude oil supply has fallen to a more than 30-year low. The agency has raised its forecast for a global crude oil supply contraction from 4% to 6%, corresponding to a daily reduction of 5.7 million barrels. As of early morning, Asian refiner cargo ships docked at Yanbu port had not yet received formal notification from Saudi Arabia. The drones used in this attack were identified as originating in Iraq. After confirming the source of the attack, the Iraqi Prime Minister's office dismissed a military commander and closed two border crossings adjacent to Iran. Simultaneously, maritime risks escalated as the Houthi rebels advanced along Yemen's Red Sea coast, capturing Perim Island, the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and publicly stated their intention to block the strait. On the US side, the Houthi rebels reportedly requested that the US not intervene in the conflict; an hour before Oman announced the cancellation of the meeting, US officials stated that Iran could not control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, Saudi Arabia's two major crude oil export routes are simultaneously under pressure: one shipping route is disrupted by geopolitical disturbances, and the other, an onshore backup pipeline, has been attacked and shut down. Under the combined effect of these multiple factors, gold prices fell sharply in early morning trading. precious metals dial structure Gold prices are currently near the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, and have fallen further, erasing all gains accumulated over the previous two days. Gold futures need a daily close that decisively breaks below the neckline to formally confirm the head and shoulders pattern. The neckline has a downward sloping structure, and the corresponding downside target could be below $4,000. Silver's volatility is significantly higher than gold's, making it the leading decliner in this round of market movements. It has fallen below $64 from its closing price of $65.19 last Friday. This characteristic has appeared multiple times in the past six trading days: silver outperforms gold during upward phases, but once it peaks and falls, its decline is more severe. Technically, a head and shoulders pattern has formed in silver. The weak rebound last Friday has opened up further downside potential. The price is currently testing the downtrend line that provided support in late August. If this support is breached, silver may experience a deep correction. The Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, or a stronger US dollar index, could be catalysts for a breakout. US Dollar Index The US dollar index has formed a replica double bottom pattern. Previously, a double bottom pattern drove a significant upward move, and there is a possibility that the market will repeat this pattern. The price is facing significant resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This Week's Key Events at a Glance Wednesday: FOMC announces interest rate decision; market prices for a rate hike approximately 90%; Warsh holds press conference afterward. Tuesday: US August retail sales data released. Thursday: Bank of England interest rate decision; UN Security Council votes on Iran sanctions. Friday: Bank of Japan interest rate decision; market anticipates rate hike; four options expire simultaneously. Current Market Landscape: Diplomatic meetings postponed, Saudi Arabia shuts down alternative oil pipelines, repurchase operations fall short of expectations, and the Fed's high probability of a rate hike—multiple negative factors have materialized. Precious metals are nearing a confirmed breakout in their technical patterns, with silver leading the decline. Middle East energy and shipping risks have escalated again, pushing up geopolitical premiums for crude oil, while tightening expectations are suppressing precious metal prices.