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2026-09-19 08:32:10
[Global Bond Markets Face Another Sell-Off, Market Focuses on Potential Escalation of Tightening Cycle] ⑴ Global government bond yields rose again on Friday, with a renewed sell-off. ⑵ This week, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, but inflation concerns remain high, and funds are focusing on the possibility of a new escalation of the global tightening cycle. ⑶ Following the European Central Bank's rate hike, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signaled another rate hike this year, reassuring the market of its determination to combat inflation. ⑷ However, the underlying factors pushing up bond yields have not disappeared, including the risk of persistently high oil prices, high levels of government debt, and competition for capital from AI-related companies. ⑸ A senior market analyst stated that while the Federal Reserve has indeed strengthened its credibility in combating inflation, massive government bond issuance, rising term premiums, and intensified competition for private sector capital mean that the support for long-term yields is difficult to resolve solely through monetary policy. ⑹ From a market sentiment perspective, short-term yields are dominated by policy paths, while long-term yields reflect more the pressure from fiscal supply and term premiums; changes in the yield curve warrant attention. (7) Going forward, attention should be paid to oil price trends, statements from major central bank officials, and the pace of government bond issuance, as these three factors will jointly determine whether the pressure on the bond market can be alleviated. (8) Overall, the combination of tightening expectations and structural supply factors means that the global bond market will still face upward pressure in the short term.
